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Brexit

Westministenders: Is Boris going to give us one ?

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 07/09/2019 09:50

A General Election that is

Well, only when Corbyn lets him, not when BJ wants it.
So far as PM, BJ has lost 4 votes to zero wins - which is a record

BJ has been spraying around promises of billions in spending,
like a tomcat drunk on catnip, spraying the Magic Money Tree

SPADs have been forbidden to take holiday before 31 October
and of course that coup / prorogue to force No Deal and wank off the authoritarian vote

The prorogue also robs him of 5 more weeks time in which he could have forced a GE.
Whoops

BJ / Cum would ideally want a GE right after Brexit
to have achieved their No Deal, maximise their votes from the Faragist
.... all before the No Deal chickens come home to roost

Of course, as PM, BJ - or is Cummings the real PM ? - could change any pre-Brexit date that the naive think they have agreed

The Rebel Alliance have options to stop him:

BJ has sacked 21 MPs, so if the Alliance unite, they outnumber Con+DUP
Another Whoops
However, they have different aims and find it difficult to compromise
Some might prefer No Deal rather than the bogeyman Corbyn, because they don't do compromise

They could use a VoNC to replace BJ by Corbyn,
who would then ask for an extension and call a GE before Brexit
Stopping No Deal that way depends on Corbyn winning the GE - a HUGE gamble

Maybe he can use the slogan
"Brexit is the Tory project to make you forget the other Tory project: Austerity"

while to appeal to some pp, the Tories can use
"Vote to protect the bonuses of rich bankers"

Or if nothing happens by 19 October, MPs can vote for the WA, which would definitely stop No Deal
But that would require the HoC to make a decision - and it has spent several months avoiding that

Tick tock, No Deal is coming

Meanwhile, talks are ongoing for a Tory-Brexit party pact.
Reportedly, the hedge-fund donors won't fund a Tory GE campaign unless there is a pact:

www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/revealed-election-pact-between-johnson-and-farage-edges-closer/

How much money does it take to buy the UK governing party ? 🤔

OP posts:
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33
Apileofballyhoo · 08/09/2019 00:53

I wish Ireland was a lot further away.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/09/2019 01:47

Carole Cadwalladrr_: The real reason we should fear the work of Dominic Cummings

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/07/smash-and-grab-dominic-cummings-democracy

Nearly two years ago, Gavin Millar, a QC at Matrix Chambers, gave me a short masterclass on
British electoral law and how it rests on the principle of good faith.

Campaigns are entrusted to correctly report their spending after the fact.

It seems absurd now: our electoral laws rest on a gentleman’s agreement.

An agreement that Cummings threw a stick of dynamite at.

His decision to do the same to our famously unwritten constitution should have surprised no one.

The “noise”, the anecdotes and the tall Westminster tales are flares he sends up before he drops his bombs somewhere else entirely.
It’s not his genius that we should be debating – it’s our own stupidity.

There is smash-and-grab of our democracy going on in real time.
And this silence is complicity.

OP posts:
Sostenueto · 08/09/2019 06:07

So ' loathesome' Andrea Leadsom has just announced that the Conservative party are selecting a candidate to run AGAINST John Berkow, the speaker in the next GE. Tradition had always been that you did not do that in a GE. That woman is poison.

Sostenueto · 08/09/2019 06:28

Tbf to loathsome, Cummings is poison but she does despise Berkow for doing his job properly and any opportunity she gets she targets Berkow, who, in my mind is a splendid chap!

Oranginna · 08/09/2019 06:45

A splendid chap who is a known bully. Remainers like him because he is pro-Remain. Would you really like him if he was pro-Leave? Honestly?
Bercow is already flouting convention by serving too long so I think Leadsom's decision can be justified.

TheElementsSong · 08/09/2019 06:59

A splendid chap who is a known bully.

DIDDUMS

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3653528-Brexitannian-NewSpeak-Dictionary-WIP

Songsofexperience · 08/09/2019 07:17

Farage as PM🤯

Too awful to contemplate.

TheMShip · 08/09/2019 07:35

Bercow is a bully. It shouldn't be denied or forgotten simply because he's been ensuring Parliament gets a voice in all this.

Running a candidate against the Speaker is not exactly conservative and respecting tradition, but the Tories can't claim that attribute anymore anyway.

TheMShip · 08/09/2019 07:36

Farage as PM

I read the tweet about walking through the doors of number 10 in a few weeks as Farage being invited to discuss an electoral pact with the PM.

wheresmymojo · 08/09/2019 07:37

Just catching up from about 9pm yesterday - don't think I'll ever catch up with anything before that Blush

On Tory party imploding

Lots of commentators on Twitter talking about the Tory party implosion and how the party won't survive.

I'm more of the opinion that the Tory party will survive but it will be a different party - harder right, with Kippers and BXP full takeover. From what I've seen of their members it probably suits 70% of them. 10% might just cease membership or hang around to see what happens.

The other 20% might move to Lib Dem's.

My two thoughts about this are:

  • it's a continuance of the move away from left/right politics. Some ex-Labour working class voters will move to Tory because they're actually very socially conservative and like an authoritarian Govt
  • We'll increasingly see those who would have been target Tory voters in the past: business people, professionals voting Lib Dem which more represent their liberal values. Lib Dem will be either a totally centrist party or slightly centre right due to incoming previously Tory MPs and members. I can see them becoming more of a political force going forward. I don't think they will be the 'one issue party' people think...
  • Unless Corbyn / Momentum move on Labour won't see a return to the kind of numbers it had under Blair. They're too economically left wing to attract business/professionals and too socially left wing for some of the working class that would have voted for them a decade ago
flouncyfanny · 08/09/2019 07:40

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

jasjas1973 · 08/09/2019 07:40

Bercow has to reflect the mood of the commons, Parliament appeared to want to "take back and control" there was a vote first (to see if this is the case) if this was not the mood, that vote would have been defeated... it was not, therefore Bercow was correct.

Bercow at present is all that is standing between us and a dictatorship.

We were told back in 2016 that we would be "taking back parliamentary sovereignty" yet when that sovereignty is exercised, leavers complain of being bullied etc etc

The Tories are trashing our democracy, our constitution & our law, just as the NSP did in the 1930s, they now appear to be prepared to trash the EU too.

Anyone who watched the Rise of the Nazis should be extremely worried, Johnson is playing the part of Hindenburg to perfection....

wheresmymojo · 08/09/2019 07:42

Re: Rudd.

I know she's not liked on here but I think she's good...

  • She was the fall guy for Windrush which was really TM's fuck up. I believe she was genuinely misled about the targets and while she should have known, she hadn't been in role that long
  • When she went into the DWP she had the balls to call a halt to the Universal Credit roll out to fix some of the stupid issues
  • I genuinely think she stayed on under BJ with good intentions (seeking to influence the agenda, providing a balance to the ERG)

Try listening to a couple of podcasts with her (Nick Robinson one is good). I can see why people distrust her from the outside but I believe she's a decent MP. MPs and staffers always speak highly of her as someone with integrity.

TheMShip · 08/09/2019 07:44

People's Vote campaign have launched their tactical voting site: www.tactical-vote.uk/

It's already pissed off Anna Soubry who is unlikely to get an endorsement.

flouncyfanny · 08/09/2019 07:51

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Dontlickthetrolley · 08/09/2019 07:51

BXP have confirmed their candidate against Loathsome.

squid4 · 08/09/2019 07:52

I think there are a lot more people reading this than you might realise. I've been reading for months, it's the only way I can make sense of it all.

So thank you all, particularly RedToothBrush

(northernA&E doctor here - labour supporter, a unfashionable fan of Corbyn, who seems to be the only one who has spoken about my main concerns for the last few years - health, homelessness, etc.
The frontline is extremely bad right now.)

wheresmymojo · 08/09/2019 07:54

Re: Con/BXP pact

Conservative Leave voters will DTD with Farage if it gets them what they want.

Actually a surprisingly decent % (say 30-50%) of them are very anti any kind of pact with Farage from my experience on the Tory forums.

They will be pretty horrified.

However - they'll still vote Tory as there's no other home for them and will convince themselves its a one off thing to secure Brexit.

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 08/09/2019 07:58

Can someone who understands this better than me explain the entire running a Tory against Bercow thing? He's a Tory probably the sort they'd deselect atm. Are they running two candidates or does his role of speaker essentially mean his whip was removed?

borntobequiet · 08/09/2019 08:02

Hello squid.
I’m in education but most of the rest of my family are medics (some in the north west) and I know how grim it is Flowers

Basilpots · 08/09/2019 08:02

Running a candidate against the Speaker is not exactly conservative and respecting tradition, but the Tories can't claim that attribute anymore anyway.

Meh he’d indicated that he was retiring anyway (Times Red Box Podcast) but it plays well in the media.

It’s the Tory’s posturing and trying to ‘look hard’.

flouncyfanny · 08/09/2019 08:09

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Basilpots · 08/09/2019 08:09

BXP have confirmed their candidate against Loathsome.

I’m sure they will stand down as long as the Tory’s do as they are told.

TheMShip · 08/09/2019 08:10

There's been a lot of comparison of the current political situation here to the rise to power of the Nazi party in 1930s Germany. More useful and realistic might be Canada in the late 1990s/early 2000s.

Points of similarity:

  1. Failed independence referendum for a region/nation with a distinct identity, leading to strong representation in parliament for the party promoting independence and a lack of seats for the two main parties in that region/nation: Quebec (Parti Quebecois) / Scotland (SNP).
  1. Fracturing of the right in politics into authoritarian and moderate elements: Reform vs Progressive Conservative / ERG vs One Nation (internal) Tory
  1. Former very strong PMs from moderate side of left of centre party (Liberal / Labour) now discredited: Jean Cretien / Tony Blair
  1. Followed by ineffective leadership and electoral defeat for the left of centre party: Paul Martin & Stephane Dion & Michael Ignatieff & Bob Rae / Gordon Brown & Ed Miliband & Jeremy Corbyn
  1. A 3rd national party competing primarily with the left of centre party: Liberal Democrats / New Democratic Party

Canada ended up with 9 years of Stephen Harper under the re-merged right of centre Conservative party, in part due to vote splitting on the left. It was a more authoritarian version of the old Progressive Conservative party, but certainly not fascist.

There are plenty of things that don't match, e.g. even the national parties are more regionally focused in Canada than the UK (probably simply due to the geography!), social media wasn't in the picture, etc. But I think the UK electorate has more in common with the Canadian electorate than the US. The health service is a touchstone for many, as is the not wanting to be seen as 'America-lite'. Because of that, I am not convinced that there are enough voters in the core no deal Brexit/hard authoritarian segment of the British electorate to gain a majority without taking some of the moderate right of centre along with them.

Plus that hard authoritarian side of things, well, it's dominated by older voters and in some ways simply standing still is winning, because they will die.

TheMShip · 08/09/2019 08:11

Meh he’d indicated that he was retiring anyway (Times Red Box Podcast) but it plays well in the media.

Thanks! I didn't know that.