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Brexit

Westministenders: Is Boris going to give us one ?

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 07/09/2019 09:50

A General Election that is

Well, only when Corbyn lets him, not when BJ wants it.
So far as PM, BJ has lost 4 votes to zero wins - which is a record

BJ has been spraying around promises of billions in spending,
like a tomcat drunk on catnip, spraying the Magic Money Tree

SPADs have been forbidden to take holiday before 31 October
and of course that coup / prorogue to force No Deal and wank off the authoritarian vote

The prorogue also robs him of 5 more weeks time in which he could have forced a GE.
Whoops

BJ / Cum would ideally want a GE right after Brexit
to have achieved their No Deal, maximise their votes from the Faragist
.... all before the No Deal chickens come home to roost

Of course, as PM, BJ - or is Cummings the real PM ? - could change any pre-Brexit date that the naive think they have agreed

The Rebel Alliance have options to stop him:

BJ has sacked 21 MPs, so if the Alliance unite, they outnumber Con+DUP
Another Whoops
However, they have different aims and find it difficult to compromise
Some might prefer No Deal rather than the bogeyman Corbyn, because they don't do compromise

They could use a VoNC to replace BJ by Corbyn,
who would then ask for an extension and call a GE before Brexit
Stopping No Deal that way depends on Corbyn winning the GE - a HUGE gamble

Maybe he can use the slogan
"Brexit is the Tory project to make you forget the other Tory project: Austerity"

while to appeal to some pp, the Tories can use
"Vote to protect the bonuses of rich bankers"

Or if nothing happens by 19 October, MPs can vote for the WA, which would definitely stop No Deal
But that would require the HoC to make a decision - and it has spent several months avoiding that

Tick tock, No Deal is coming

Meanwhile, talks are ongoing for a Tory-Brexit party pact.
Reportedly, the hedge-fund donors won't fund a Tory GE campaign unless there is a pact:

www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/revealed-election-pact-between-johnson-and-farage-edges-closer/

How much money does it take to buy the UK governing party ? 🤔

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BigChocFrenzy · 07/09/2019 23:02

Meanwhile, the Putin regime fighting for its life ?
I wonder if the bots will get desperate as BJ wobbles, ir whether they will be too busy with domestic matters

A Summer of Unprecedented Brutality in Moscow

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/a-summer-of-unprecedented-brutality-in-moscow

Why is the regime unleashing such spectacular and effortful fury on a few candidates for offices with no power and next to no chance of winning in rigged elections?

A common interpretation is that the Kremlin is scared.

Vladimir Putin’s popularity is slipping, and even a rigged election can stress the system to the point where its rusty structures give.

This could well be true,
but it is also true that the system Putin has built is so opaque that we will not know how thoroughly it has rusted until it actually collapses.

That may happen this year, or in five years, or in ten.
Until then, we can be sure only of what can actually be observed:

Russia today has more political prisoners than at any point since the collapse of the U.S.S.R., in 1991,
and, in fact, many more than it had when the last Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, decided to release most of them, in 1987.

As long as the current regime exists, this number will grow, as will the length of prison sentences and the brutality of enforcers.

This is how freedom shrinks:
once the vector has been established, there are no turning points, only the movement of the relentless, freedom-eating machine.

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Apileofballyhoo · 07/09/2019 23:02

I was wondering this ‘vote BXP get Tory’ would have some resonance with some Labour voters who have been sitting on there hands and not voting recently ?

Surely it would make traditional Labour voters think twice before supporting BXP.

I wonder if Leave Supporters in clashes with the police would make traditional Tory voters think twice?

Sostenueto · 07/09/2019 23:03

I reiterate we cannot stand alone in thus world we actually need our allies in Europe!

PestyMachtubernahme · 07/09/2019 23:05

🍉 OMG the is a water melon emoji. We never have to name the PM again

Apileofballyhoo · 07/09/2019 23:06

Personally I can't stand Soubry. No particular reason just took a dislike to her. Can't fault your honesty, Sos! Her voice kind of annoys me but I do admire her tenacity.

boatyardblues · 07/09/2019 23:09

Busy day. Probably the tardiest PMK on this thread.

Caught the Amber Rudd news on another thread. Wine

boatyardblues · 07/09/2019 23:09

Shock not Wine

Apileofballyhoo · 07/09/2019 23:10

whether they will be too busy with domestic matters That would be extremely helpful, BCF, though I wouldn't wish any more shit on Russian people.

RedToothBrush · 07/09/2019 23:12

Paul Brand@paulbranditv
^BREAKING: Source close to Tory rebels:

“Wheels are coming off the Dominic Cummings machine. The sham negotiation has been exposed for what it is - he has no Plan B. He’s single-handedly trying to turn party into extreme right wing faction - and moderates clearly aren’t welcome.”^

🔥 Senior govt source responds 🔥

“The rebel’s without a clue should get their two Euros in ASAP. No one cares about the views of ex MPs, which is what they’ll all be by Christmas.”

Apileofballyhoo · 07/09/2019 23:15

“The rebel’s without a clue should get their two Euros in ASAP. No one cares about the views of ex MPs, which is what they’ll all be by Christmas.”

Holy mother of fuck.

ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 07/09/2019 23:17

Is Cummings tired and emotional again?

Peregrina · 07/09/2019 23:19

I know that I am in a sort of LibDem/Remain bubble, but at recent elections where I have been a teller, the moderate Tories did not like the direction things were going in, so they couldn't get the foot soldiers out to leaflet and get the voters out. I really don't know how things would play out with a Brexit/Tory remnant pact.

RedToothBrush · 07/09/2019 23:20

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
Fight back: Govt source points out that Amber Rudd was fighting a marginal seat anyway and chose to jump before she probably lost her seat in a GE.

NoWordForFluffy · 07/09/2019 23:20

Random apostrophe. Who wrote that?!

borntobequiet · 07/09/2019 23:20

I admire Anna Soubry. In the debate the other evening, the barracking she got was notably worse than any other speaker had to endure. She speaks well, clearly and concisely, and with conviction. There’s some vicious misogyny in the house. TM also got more than her fair share, I don’t know how she managed to cope with it - probably by despising the lot of them, as her face frequently showed.

borntobequiet · 07/09/2019 23:21

Oh and just for the record, I don’t have faith in any of those polls.

RedToothBrush · 07/09/2019 23:21

Is Cummings tired and emotional again?

Is that a euphemism for pissed up on the red wine again?

Sadly I think he's like this sober and well rested.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/09/2019 23:22

"🔥 Senior govt source responds 🔥 "

Yep.
All-out civil war in the Tory party
No prisoners
No Geneva Convention

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cherin · 07/09/2019 23:22

He must be losing it, like trump recently (but without the limit on characters of twitter...Cummings writes very, very long, and I’d expect him to ramble even more when he loses it for good...)

RedToothBrush · 07/09/2019 23:23

From the mail all the latest developments including May being a figurehead for a reinstatement of the Johnson 21.

Westministenders: Is Boris  going to give us one ?
NoWordForFluffy · 07/09/2019 23:24

The polls are varying wildly. Even though they're being taken at the same time. The data behind them would be interesting.

I don't trust them either.

RedToothBrush · 07/09/2019 23:26

Pippa Crerar@pippacrerar
Who goes next? Matt Hancock, Robert Buckland, Nicky Morgan all on political “suicide watch” by Number 10 tonight.

I gather that NI Secretary @JulianSmithUK (Theresa May’s chief whip) is No 10’s biggest concern right now: will he follow @AmberRuddHR out the door? Hancock, Buckland, Morgan have all indicated they’ll stay (for now).

Outsomnia · 07/09/2019 23:27

Has Amber Rudd resigned or am I mistaken now.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/09/2019 23:28

Unfortunately, the hard right look almost certain to win the civil war
and they have BXP reinforcements standing by

The extremists hold the power - because the moderates should have been fighting back hard since 2015, but have only just started

and Cummings keeps setting more fires
(btw, was he the "senior govt source ?)

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Apileofballyhoo · 07/09/2019 23:29

moderate Tories did not like the direction things were going in, so they couldn't get the foot soldiers out to leaflet and get the voters out

I wonder how that fits in with all those polls saying that Tory members wanted No Deal, or has there been an influx of new members?

That poll upthread was mental, the one where Cons are hugely ahead for before 31st but Labour much higher for later on, provided Brexit has happened? Is it? I must go back and look again.