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Brexit

Westministenders: Is Boris going to give us one ?

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 07/09/2019 09:50

A General Election that is

Well, only when Corbyn lets him, not when BJ wants it.
So far as PM, BJ has lost 4 votes to zero wins - which is a record

BJ has been spraying around promises of billions in spending,
like a tomcat drunk on catnip, spraying the Magic Money Tree

SPADs have been forbidden to take holiday before 31 October
and of course that coup / prorogue to force No Deal and wank off the authoritarian vote

The prorogue also robs him of 5 more weeks time in which he could have forced a GE.
Whoops

BJ / Cum would ideally want a GE right after Brexit
to have achieved their No Deal, maximise their votes from the Faragist
.... all before the No Deal chickens come home to roost

Of course, as PM, BJ - or is Cummings the real PM ? - could change any pre-Brexit date that the naive think they have agreed

The Rebel Alliance have options to stop him:

BJ has sacked 21 MPs, so if the Alliance unite, they outnumber Con+DUP
Another Whoops
However, they have different aims and find it difficult to compromise
Some might prefer No Deal rather than the bogeyman Corbyn, because they don't do compromise

They could use a VoNC to replace BJ by Corbyn,
who would then ask for an extension and call a GE before Brexit
Stopping No Deal that way depends on Corbyn winning the GE - a HUGE gamble

Maybe he can use the slogan
"Brexit is the Tory project to make you forget the other Tory project: Austerity"

while to appeal to some pp, the Tories can use
"Vote to protect the bonuses of rich bankers"

Or if nothing happens by 19 October, MPs can vote for the WA, which would definitely stop No Deal
But that would require the HoC to make a decision - and it has spent several months avoiding that

Tick tock, No Deal is coming

Meanwhile, talks are ongoing for a Tory-Brexit party pact.
Reportedly, the hedge-fund donors won't fund a Tory GE campaign unless there is a pact:

www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/revealed-election-pact-between-johnson-and-farage-edges-closer/

How much money does it take to buy the UK governing party ? 🤔

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Thread gallery
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RedToothBrush · 07/09/2019 21:38

Darren McCaffery @darreneuronews
🗳NEW POLL:

Opinium poll for the @ObserverUK

CON: 35% (+3)
LAB: 25% (-1)
LD: 17% (+2)
BREX: 13% (-3)

04 - 06 Sep 19

RedToothBrush · 07/09/2019 21:40

Adam Boulton @adamboultonSKY
What’s @MattHancock going to do now?

flouncyfanny · 07/09/2019 21:41

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ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 07/09/2019 21:42

Sir Roger hates Cummings. He described him as a foul mouthed oaf.

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 07/09/2019 21:42

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yolofish · 07/09/2019 21:42

Well, rats and sinking ships spring to my mind...

RedToothBrush · 07/09/2019 21:42

Matthew Goodwin @goodwinmj
If @BorisJohnson takes half @Nigel_Farage vote & Remainers stay divided Cons win 366 seats/easy majority

If, instead, @UKLabour & @LibDems form alliance (stand down where other 1st/2nd), & Farage stays strong, Lab-led coalition & 2nd EURef on the table

Westministenders: Is Boris  going to give us one ?
Westministenders: Is Boris  going to give us one ?
flouncyfanny · 07/09/2019 21:43

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Mistigri · 07/09/2019 21:43

My view is that the Tory party backlash against withdrawing the whip is building and people don’t want to be tainted by association. AR may be rehabilitated when BJ is disposed of.

This. Anyone who still believes the party has a future and has political ambitions as a conservative will be considering their position.

RedToothBrush · 07/09/2019 21:44

Tim Shipman@shippersunbound
NEW: Boris Johnson wants a Supreme Court battle over whether he can defy the rebel law demanding a Brexit extension

Basilpots · 07/09/2019 21:45

@flouncyfanny you will be on BXP list then.

(Well not you personally)

RedToothBrush · 07/09/2019 21:45

Tim Shipman @shippersunbound
BREAKING: Nigel Farage tells the Sunday Times the Brexit party will not stand candidates against the 28 Tory Brexiteers who opposed May’s deal - and anyone else who vows not to back any deal

BigChocFrenzy · 07/09/2019 21:45

(FT paywall) Max Hastings: Boris, Churchill and the implosion of the Tories

How Major & BJ handled the rise of the right so differently, one trying to stop it, the other egging them on.

https://www.ft.com/content/b6571af0-d003-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f

Sir Ian Gilmour, a pro-European Tory grandee, wrote about the rise of the right in 1997:

“Like some crazed American religious cult, the Conservative parliamentary party seemed intent on mass suicide

He added of John Major, the then prime minister:
“Unlike such cults, however, its leader was not intent on persuading his followers to commit suicide,
he was merely unable to talk them out of it.”

That has now changed. The party is being rushed towards the cliff-edge by its own leader. My own hunch is that Mr Johnson’s desperate gamble will succeed in its own terms, because of the bizarre symmetry between himself and Jeremy Corbyn, the only conceivable Labour leader he may be able to defeat at an early general election.

By adopting the Trump playbook - a full-frontal appeal to his own supporters, heedless of the rest of the country -
Mr Johnson may prove able to form another government.

But the Conservative party as we have known it, as a slightly right-of-centre alliance, will be gone.

Absent the purged moderates, absent cosmopolitans who profess enthusiasm for our European neighbours,
together with most of its more intelligent MPs,
it will become a thing apart, repugnant to millions of British voters who recognise that government must be conducted on the centre ground.
......
Our society has lapsed into a period of madness which we should recognise as such

  • as do most foreign commentators viewing our affairs -
wherein dangerous forces are in play.

We shall be fortunate if we prove able to escape from it with only the implosion of one traditional political party,
rather than with a collapse of confidence in our entire system of democracy.

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lonelyplanetmum · 07/09/2019 21:46

Hello Born. Thank you so much for marching again. Sorry you had to face fascist thugs and sorry I wasn't marching today. My priorities were probably wrong with kids parties, sleepovers etc going on.

The riot police presence seems very different to the previous marches.That's what we get under the attempted new regime - it's like movement towards becoming a police state, banana republic, or junta led dictatorship.

I get that there's been some carefully considered gamble to abandon the moderate middle class Tory stalwart and court the ex Labour voting Brexiteer type of new Tory. But surely the exodus of 20 rising to 30+ ? MPs will take hundreds of thousands of votes too?

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 07/09/2019 21:48

flouncy I've heard rumours of a few other joining the Lib Dems, with Heidi Allen being expected to be announced during the conference. It may have been mentioned on here a few threads back. I'm so lost now though as these threads and twitter have been going fast 😂

RedToothBrush · 07/09/2019 21:48

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
All too much for Amber Rudd. Follows Jo Johnson out of the door and rejoins her clan - David Gauke, Greg Clark, Philip Hammond - on the backbenchers.

Rudd: spoke to PM for 10 mins tonight. Told him she didn’t think he was serious about getting a deal (said he was) and asked him to show the strategy (this is what @PhilipHammondUK & @DavidGauke et all have being calling for) 1/

Rudd: Wanted to make it work and didn’t support the Benn Bill. Met rebels with PM. Was worried about prorogation but AG assured her it was legal. But the sacking of the 21 rebels too much to take. She sees it as an“assault on decency” that she couldn’t stomach 2/

Rudd will stand as a Conservative MP. Wants the PM to reconsider the decision to take whip from 21 colleagues and wants him to put as much effort into getting a deal as preparing for No Deal. 3/

Mistigri · 07/09/2019 21:48

I'm struggling with that poll. Combined Tory + BXP is 48% which probably exceeds the leave percentage now. And not all leavers will vote Tory or BXP, some will stick with Labour.

It suggests that there is a chunk of the Tory remain vote which has not yet jumped ship. How long will that last if the party keeps hollowing out?

BigChocFrenzy · 07/09/2019 21:49

imo, Farage & Tice may see a chance to take over the Tory party, since so many moderates are being expelled or quitting

Add to that a small (for a governing party) & extreme rightwing membership and the Tories are ripe for takeover

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flouncyfanny · 07/09/2019 21:49

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flouncyfanny · 07/09/2019 21:51

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RedToothBrush · 07/09/2019 21:51

did anyone fathom out the cryptic message behind Jo Swinsons love of Rodgers and Hammerstein?

Sunday Times also have the 'scoop' that Angela Smith has defected to the LDs.

But seeing as we knew that was happening a couple of days ago, I've not linked to it.

Heidi Allen's defection to the LDs is apparently the big announcement for the last day of their conference

I'm sure we'll see another 'scope' then.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/09/2019 21:52

Some Tories - probably most - prioritise keeping out bogeyman Corbyn and having tax cuts for the better off instead of increases

A large % of both Tory and Labour voters are very tribal and would vote Tory even if their leader were chomping down on live kittens

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BigChocFrenzy · 07/09/2019 21:53

would vote Tory / Labour

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RedToothBrush · 07/09/2019 21:54

It suggests that there is a chunk of the Tory remain vote which has not yet jumped ship. How long will that last if the party keeps hollowing out?

How long do you think its gonna take for the general population to work of the Conservatives ARE the Brexit Party?

Basilpots · 07/09/2019 21:54

Spectator (in know Confused) had an interview with Tony Abbott (ex Australian PM) he explains his parties realignment with regards voters sounds similar to what is going on with the Tory Party.

First five minutes is peak Brexit over simplification though.

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/coffee-house-shots/id1101754136?i=1000448465409

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