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Brexit

Westministenders: Is Boris going to give us one ?

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 07/09/2019 09:50

A General Election that is

Well, only when Corbyn lets him, not when BJ wants it.
So far as PM, BJ has lost 4 votes to zero wins - which is a record

BJ has been spraying around promises of billions in spending,
like a tomcat drunk on catnip, spraying the Magic Money Tree

SPADs have been forbidden to take holiday before 31 October
and of course that coup / prorogue to force No Deal and wank off the authoritarian vote

The prorogue also robs him of 5 more weeks time in which he could have forced a GE.
Whoops

BJ / Cum would ideally want a GE right after Brexit
to have achieved their No Deal, maximise their votes from the Faragist
.... all before the No Deal chickens come home to roost

Of course, as PM, BJ - or is Cummings the real PM ? - could change any pre-Brexit date that the naive think they have agreed

The Rebel Alliance have options to stop him:

BJ has sacked 21 MPs, so if the Alliance unite, they outnumber Con+DUP
Another Whoops
However, they have different aims and find it difficult to compromise
Some might prefer No Deal rather than the bogeyman Corbyn, because they don't do compromise

They could use a VoNC to replace BJ by Corbyn,
who would then ask for an extension and call a GE before Brexit
Stopping No Deal that way depends on Corbyn winning the GE - a HUGE gamble

Maybe he can use the slogan
"Brexit is the Tory project to make you forget the other Tory project: Austerity"

while to appeal to some pp, the Tories can use
"Vote to protect the bonuses of rich bankers"

Or if nothing happens by 19 October, MPs can vote for the WA, which would definitely stop No Deal
But that would require the HoC to make a decision - and it has spent several months avoiding that

Tick tock, No Deal is coming

Meanwhile, talks are ongoing for a Tory-Brexit party pact.
Reportedly, the hedge-fund donors won't fund a Tory GE campaign unless there is a pact:

www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/revealed-election-pact-between-johnson-and-farage-edges-closer/

How much money does it take to buy the UK governing party ? 🤔

OP posts:
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RedToothBrush · 07/09/2019 20:57

Ian Warren @ election_data
We currently have 60 MPs who are either Independent (38) or standing down (22) at the next election. As if predictions weren't difficult enough (!) guys. Think of the data analysts #GeneralElection2019

Never been a HUGE advocate of incumbency effects myself btw but suspect it'll be worthwhile including this time

Peregrina · 07/09/2019 20:58

Does that mean that included in those brought to trial would be and advisors etc in no10?

I understood that it did. Watch them all trying to squirm and wriggle.

flouncyfanny · 07/09/2019 21:04

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OublietteBravo · 07/09/2019 21:07

But we do NOT have to satisfy most Leavers, just most voters

^^ This

Did anyone else notice that Arlene isn’t standing for election to Westminster again? I posted the link to the story on the last thread, but it may have got lost in the noise.

flouncyfanny · 07/09/2019 21:09

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smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 07/09/2019 21:10

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OublietteBravo · 07/09/2019 21:10

I’m hearing Rudd has resigned. Can anyone confirm?

flouncyfanny · 07/09/2019 21:11

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Hoooo · 07/09/2019 21:12

Rudd finally found her spine, eh?

RedToothBrush · 07/09/2019 21:12

Yes

Tim Shipman @shippersunbound
EXCLUSIVE: Amber Rudd has just resigned from the cabinet. See her interview in the Sunday Times

yolofish · 07/09/2019 21:13

I've been reading but not commenting all day. What is clear to me (dur!) is that there is no way these divisions are going to be easily healed.

Regardless of who says what to who, or who does what to who, around half the country are going to be unhappy whatever happens.

To me, the answer would be for someone to have to have the balls to revoke, and then set up enquiries, research, whatever, into what sort of deal the leavers would find acceptable.

Because it is the leavers who have caused this, and dont know what type of leave they want.

RedToothBrush · 07/09/2019 21:14

More than that...

Tim Shipman @shippersunbound
BREAKING: Amber Rudd has resigned the Conservative whip and plans to run as an independent Conservative at the general election. See the Sunday Times

NEW: Amber Rudd tells the Sunday Times she resigned because there is “no evidence” that Boris Johnson is really seeking a deal with the EU

^SUNDAY TIMES EXCLUSIVE
Amber Rudd resigns over Brexit and Boris purge. Read our story here^

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8ce8dbe4-d1a3-11e9-bac7-3a108794927b
Exclusive: Amber Rudd resigns from cabinet and quits Tories
Top remainer denounces PM’s ‘purge’ of 21 Tory rebels as an “assault on decency and democracy”, and says leaving with a deal is no longer the government’s main objective

flouncyfanny · 07/09/2019 21:15

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flouncyfanny · 07/09/2019 21:16

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Alsohuman · 07/09/2019 21:17

So Rudd’s found her conscience. Her majority was tiny so either she’ll lose it or it will massively increase. Could go either way.

flouncyfanny · 07/09/2019 21:18

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RedToothBrush · 07/09/2019 21:19

Also

Tim Shipman@shippersunbound
^YouGov for the Sunday Times
(fieldwork Thurs/Fri)^

Con 35% (-)
Lab 21% (-4)
LDem 19% (+3)
Brexit 12% (+1)

A week of turmoil and Johnson seems to be defying gravity

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 07/09/2019 21:20

I'm guessing Rudd has realised she's got more chance being elected as an independent than having to go through 72 million recounts.

RedToothBrush · 07/09/2019 21:21

Also

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-mp-john-mann-quits-to-become-government-anti-semitism-tsar-hlrwb66z5
Labour MP John Mann quits to become government anti-semitism tsar
Mann opens new rift in opposition

The Labour Party was plunged into civil war again this evening as a veteran MP revealed he is quitting the Commons to take up a full-time role as the government’s anti-semitism tsar.

John Mann told The Sunday Times he was standing down after 18 years as a Labour MP and said Jeremy Corbyn was unfit to be prime minister for his mishandling of the anti-semitism crisis that has engulfed the party.

His decision came as Diana Johnson became the first victim of Labour’s new trigger ballot process. After 14 years’ service as MP for Hull North, she will now face a battle to be reselected.

TheCaddyisaBaddie · 07/09/2019 21:21

Amber Rudd has resigned - never thought she would do it

RedToothBrush · 07/09/2019 21:22

Amber Rudd MP
I have resigned from Cabinet and surrendered the Conservative Whip.

I cannot stand by as good, loyal moderate Conservatives are expelled.

I have spoken to the PM and my Association Chairman to explain.

I remain committed to the One Nation values that drew me into politics.

Westministenders: Is Boris  going to give us one ?
Westministenders: Is Boris  going to give us one ?
Mistigri · 07/09/2019 21:23

Not surprised about Amber Rudd. She has looked like a broken woman in recent photos.

Almost feel sorry for her. Almost.

Hazardtired · 07/09/2019 21:24

Is javid going to go at some point as well? Last time I saw him he looked like he had a conscience and it was hurting him.

lonelyplanetmum · 07/09/2019 21:24

Right who next?

RedToothBrush · 07/09/2019 21:25

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
Understand Amber Rudd did not tell Boris Johnson she was resigning before she gave an interview to the Sunday Times

She came under huge pressure from Rebel Alliance and her brother Roland Rudd, who were furious she had stayed in the cabinet

Source close to Amber Rudd says she genuinely tried to make it work in cabinet - she signed up to the Oct 31 pledge, proroguing Parliament and opposed the Benn legislation

But she could not live with the decision to expel 21 Tory rebels

Amber Rudd told Boris Johnson her decision late this evening after she had told the Sunday Times

He asked her to reconsider but she had made her mind up

Team Rudd exchanged messages with No10 today asking for her to be able to attend UNGA for her women and equalities brief... decision must have come late in the day...