Westministenders: Is Boris going to give us one ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

A General Election that is

Well, only when Corbyn lets him, not when BJ wants it.
So far as PM, BJ has lost 4 votes to zero wins - which is a record

BJ has been spraying around promises of billions in spending,
like a tomcat drunk on catnip, spraying the Magic Money Tree

SPADs have been forbidden to take holiday before 31 October
and of course that coup / prorogue to force No Deal and wank off the authoritarian vote

The prorogue also robs him of 5 more weeks time in which he could have forced a GE.
Whoops

BJ / Cum would ideally want a GE right after Brexit
to have achieved their No Deal, maximise their votes from the Faragist
.... all before the No Deal chickens come home to roost

Of course, as PM, BJ - or is Cummings the real PM ? - could change any pre-Brexit date that the naive think they have agreed

The Rebel Alliance have options to stop him:

BJ has sacked 21 MPs, so if the Alliance unite, they outnumber Con+DUP
Another Whoops
However, they have different aims and find it difficult to compromise
Some might prefer No Deal rather than the bogeyman Corbyn, because they don't do compromise

They could use a VoNC to replace BJ by Corbyn,
who would then ask for an extension and call a GE before Brexit
Stopping No Deal that way depends on Corbyn winning the GE - a HUGE gamble

Maybe he can use the slogan
"Brexit is the Tory project to make you forget the other Tory project: Austerity"

while to appeal to some pp, the Tories can use
"Vote to protect the bonuses of rich bankers"

Or if nothing happens by 19 October, MPs can vote for the WA, which would definitely stop No Deal
But that would require the HoC to make a decision - and it has spent several months avoiding that

Tick tock, No Deal is coming

Meanwhile, talks are ongoing for a Tory-Brexit party pact.
Reportedly, the hedge-fund donors won't fund a Tory GE campaign unless there is a pact:

www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/revealed-election-pact-between-johnson-and-farage-edges-closer/

How much money does it take to buy the UK governing party ? 🤔

Pfeffling is definitely more than worthy of being used far more.
For situations where waffling doesn't quite cut it

@BearBehind I wasn't actually referring to you. You have been knocking around these threads for years. I was referring to someone who comes onto the threads, bitch plops prolifically to goad others, then goes again. They are just best ignored.

"Pfeffling" = I'm having that 🤣🤣🤣

Wow, descent on westminders thread the world really has gone to pot and poor old bear 🐻 being attacked.

Bear, come over to brexit arms for friendly drink

Queen Time has moved on since that BJ "Only one chance in a million of No Deal"
He & Cum will blame the EU & Remain saboteurs

Most likely scenario is that the can*t agree on anything else, so time runs out, No Deal happens
and then there is a GE after 1 November - obviously BJ will be standing on a platform of having achieeved No Deal

If he wants a GE before Brexit, then Corbyn will have to agree this week, because ...
BJ has prorogued for the following 5 weeks !

Even if Corbyn agrees, the mandatory 25 working days before a GE means we are looking at a mid-late October GE

That GE is only a few days before Brexit
and BJ has said he would rather die than ask for an A50 extension.

I'd expect his manifesto mid-October to be No Deal, because even he can't convince people that he can negotiate a new deal in a few days

If he wins a majority in October, then obviously he would repeal the bill requiring him to make an extension request
No judge is going to jail a PM who is very probably going to repeal the relevant bill a few days later.

pmk

Keep reminding ourselves that even if Corbyn did agree to a mid-October GE,
BJ - being PM - could change the date unilaterally to November, after Brexit

We could have trusted May not to break an agreement like that, but not BJ

Not attacking Bear but we were going round and round in circles.

I respect that she has no faith in Corbyn and Labours’ Brexit strategy Lord knows she’s not the only one, but constantly asking the same questions over and over and making the same point over and over adds nothing. Especially when the question had been answered several times by various posters.

Apologies if I have offended.

Yes, I’m not expecting an election until November. But if we have left with no deal, I just can’t get my head round the idea of someone proudly standing up and saying, ‘Yep, it was me, I did this’!

Bear I'm just going by what Labour have said, which is Customs Union. As a compromise I think that's fine. That's Brexit while mitigating some of the damage.

I honestly can't figure out what you want, although I've tried. I think you want No Deal because you think all the Leave voters will be happy with that. Although there is no way of knowing exactly what all the Leave Voters will be happy with. Some Leave Voters wanted more money for the NHS. Some Leave Voters wanted bendier bananas or straighter bananas or for the UK to have all types of bananas. Some Leave Voters didn't want the UK to be part of a European Army. Some Leave Voters wanted to stay in the Customs Union. Some Leave Voters wanted less immigration, full stop. Some Leave Voters wanted fewer immigrants from EU countries. Some Leave Voters wanted parliamentary sovereignty. Some Leave Voters just don't want to be in the EU. Some Leavers just don't think the benefits of being in the EU are worth the membership fees. Some Leavers didn't want to be part of a political union but didn't mind being part of an economic one.

I think a Customs Union is a good compromise for a lot of what Leavers said they wanted, and it's a compromise to Remainers too, as if opinions change considerably keeping the UK in a Customs Union means it would be easier to develop a closer relationship in future.

The GFA says to everybody that NI will stay as part of the UK with the promise of a poll if public opinion shows that that has significantly changed and that's its likely a majority would support a union with Ireland. Perhaps the UK could do something similar.

Perhaps some Labour members do have a view to staying in the Single Market also, I don't know. I'm sure it will be in a manifesto.

As an aside, do people who are part of the 48% and feel they have little voice, have a better idea of what it might have been like being from the nationalist community in NI?

Don’t forget if that happened the Brexit Party wouldn’t split the vote ...

I overslept this morning then had to go out sharpish and only just got back in the last hour and there's already 17 pages!

Doing a little catching up, before reflecting on comments here.

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
Misconduct in public office is a criminal offence: t.co/VZwkeDB6rr

As is conspiracy to commit the same

Deliberately seeking to break the law as public officials would be an offence

With serious prison time

Johnson and his aides briefing press all need to calm down

If Johnson and/or his aides are indeed conspiring to deliberately break the law in respect of Article 50 extension, it is difficult to see what defence they could possibly have to a successful prosecution

And, as in Operation Elveden cases, the conspiracy offence can extend to those who are not public officials themselves

This is not about "goading" MPs into "impeachment" or daring courts to make mandatory orders

This is same territory as any public servant (and those conspiring with that public servant) seeking to break any law

This is the Rule of Law

Prime ministers are not above the law

And there would also be grounds for bring damages claims in tort on the same facts

Malfeasance in public office is a tort

So: overexcited late night briefing to reporters is one thing

But if there is a serious plan of action for the Prime Minister and his aides to deliberately break the law, they need to be very careful indeed

Intense legal peril for them all in their personal capacities

And the size of damages claims directly against Johnson and co for losses caused by committing the tort would be colossal

In addition to any criminal liability

What if the Prime Minister deliberately broke the law over extending Article 50?

New post, by me
davidallengreen.com/2019/09/what-if-the-prime-minister-deliberately-broke-the-law-over-extending-article-50/

Apart from potentially being subject to jail (up to life imprisonment) he'd also be personally liable for any losses resulting from no deal.

Sam Coates Sky@samcoatessky
The Sunday papers are going to be key.

No10 consciously put a lot of effort into ensuring key messages land in certain publications

Can they use the Sundays to reset expectations, persuade MPs they have a workable plan? Or not?

Tonight’s front pages will be fascinating

^^this

Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall
There is no, repeat no, Tory majority without Guildford, a seat Tory, save for one term, since 1910. If this is correct, and the prime minister genuinely has so little understanding of electoral geography, then the Conservatives are truly lost.

Why the mention of Guildford ?

"Pfeffling" seems to be missing from the dictionary.

I googled it and came up with www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Pfeffel

Sulk - I thought I had invented the term pfeffling.

Maybe Boris is actually so incompetent it will save us from a hard Brexit/No Deal. I have no doubt that but Theresa May is an extremely hard worker.

My predictions are

Enough MPs will hold their nose and agree the WA

For most people this will be a bearable outcome because the brexit fiasco has paralysed UK business and politics for years

The Tories might allow BJ to fight the GE on a wave of I delivered Brexit populism but they won’t forgive him and the queue to knife him in the back will be long.

Cummings will be thrown under a bus

Die hard Brexiteers will be unhappy because anything less than Tusk’s head on a spike at the Tower will be capitulation. The rest of us won’t give a shit what they think.

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
^THIS is an interesting, important - and dangerous - report by @tconnellyRTE
citing sources saying EU will allow a 'gradual' approach to Irish border in event of #Brexit no deal. Raises more questions than it answers 1/Thread.^
www.rte.ie/amp/1074298/?__twitter_impression=true
EU 'gradual approach' to border in no-deal Brexit

This is the key section - it describes an kind of border limbo/halfworld where there are 'no derogations' and yet blind eyes turned if things are too politically perilous.

But how does this work in the real world? /2

Things have changed quite a bit since 1974. It's much easier now to get a postal vote - then, as I remember, there were very few reasons. Now, if you don't feel like turning out on a wet November or icy February day, the postal vote is your friend.

^Especially when the question had been answered several times by various posters.*

Except they haven’t - no one has explained how a vote for a Labour Brexit would deliver anything different to the current ness

They still want things that aren’t possible in practice

Unless they’re honest with what they’d give up it’s Groundhog Day

Dan hodges @ dpjhodges
If you look at this morning's papers the Sun is talking about Boris resigning, the Telegraph is talking about Boris breaking the law and the FT is talking about Boris trying to push through May's deal. And what that reveals is Boris hasn't got a clue what to do.