Westminstenders: "He's in trouble". No he's not.

[RedToothBrush]

All day I've seen nothing but comments and tweets about he Johnson is in trouble and he's losing it.

They are wrong. He's far from done.

Take a step through the Looking Glass and the world looks different.

Those tweeting and reporting all care about events and are following closely. They are unrepresentative of the population as a whole who don't give two shiny shits.

And so we have the Trump dynamic.

The Liberal elite of broadcasters and journalists who are only seeing through the lens of their own judgement, not from the repackaged marketing.

Instead they are unwittingly publishing the images and slogans in the format Johnson wants and enter the minds of the public as planned.

The media are out of step with perceptions. And that's worrying. They don't see what's coming.

Johnson will have an election at some point. With the Tory party cleansed of moderates it is the Brexit Party one way or another, whether it be by takeover or coalition. And its riding high in the polling.

Even though even his brother has abandoned him, the future looks positive for Johnson as his opponents have a complete lack of self awareness and no understanding of the opposition they are taking on; they are campaigning in a way that plays into the hands of Johnson.

Despite his lack of majority and apparently absence of plan or speech notes, the biggest mistake you can make now is to write off Johnson.

You do so at your own peril.

Pay close attention to how authoritarians work and what's already happened in the US. We are on course to repeat it.

What makes you think tories and bxp would not fudge a coalition? I’m pretty sure they would. Happily. It’ll be another Salvini-diMaio, but with a different accent.
Brace, brace!

Not if the Tories and BXP divvy up the seats

I am sure all parties can play at that game...

Brexit party wants to leave without a deal.
Conservatives want a deal. That's what they have said. They will leave without a deal but they want a deal.

Lots of hard campaigning will be needed on the ground.

(FWIW that duo didn’t end up well, but it took some time before it split and in the meantime they happily drowned a few hundreds migrants. Just saying)

What nonsense?

That the public might prefer Corbyn to Boris, and Corbyn as PM to No Deal, obviously. Clearly the opposite is true, and by large margins.

Now that the Tories have been cleansed of moderates it paves the way for a deal with the Brexit party. Boris, Nigel, Cummings & Bannon have it all stitched up just how they want it and we are being played for fools.

www.dw.com/en/germany-far-right-offenses-rise-in-2019/a-50025070
How do you explain this BigChoc

Also

I am not sure I agree with you on that. Even if they loathe BJ that doesn’t mean they would protect Corbyn.

I feel it's very hard to call tbh.

I posted earlier about the Brexiteers I know (family in the main) and how, for them it's gone beyond the question of the EU - it's a sense of profound anger/injustice that their democratic vote is being ignored.

The fact that they stand to lose hard wrt a No Deal simply doesn't resonate with them. They don't want to hear facts and reasoned arguments, they want to "matter", their vote to mean something.

They voted for Brexit because they felt disenfranchised and that feeling has swelled as Brexit has not been delivered.

Those right of centre will vote for Boris - regardless of how badly he messes up. Those left of centre are ready to vote for Farage (they see it as not voting Tory but making their voice heard).

DH and I earn six figures, politically left of centre and have an ethos that we are happy to pay taxes that reflect a proportional
distribution of wealth.

Traditionally we've always voted Labour (and been party members until 2 years ago) until Corbyn. I suppose we are archetypal "Blairites" or "Champagne Socialists" as the current Labour/Momentum continent would class us.

Our friends are broadly similar.

However there is a definite unease about voting for Corbyn. Hence in recent elections moving to independent candidates or the Lib Dem's.

In a GE now DH and I will think very carefully how to vote.

Quite honestly there's no option we will be comfortable with.

We don't want Corbyn as PM, but I fear Johnson more.

That said I think most of our friend feel the reverse. They seem likely to vote LibDem or even Tory to avoid Corbyn and I see the remain vote being critically spilt in a way the leave vote won't be.

If Labour had Cooper or Starmer as leader it would be a no brainer.

So back to my opening sentence - it's hard to call because a huge swathe of the population is not going to be voting along "traditional" lines.

The fact that Corbyn polls badly is not news - we must have mentioned that hundreds of times here

He also did before the last GE, when Labour started 24% behind

I rate a Corbyn win as unlikely, but another hung Parliament is quite possible

They wouldn’t see it as protecting Corbyn, they’d see it as punishing Johnson.

Also
Their loyalty is to the Tory party not to its current leader. There is huge pressure on BJ to restore the whip. John Major mentioned how he had withdrawn the whip but reinstated it before a GE. I suspect there are back room deals being struck now.

He also did before the last GE, when Labour started 24% behind

OK, OK, you're right - voters always prefer a clapped-out coward the second time round.

But yes, in all seriousness a hung parliament is the most likely outcome, in the absence of a formal CON/BXP campaigning arrangement.

derxa What on earth has that got to do with Germans being pro-British ?

Racist offences shot up immediately after East Germany joined the West
It's the AfD heartland: decades of Communist dictatorship, which deliberately whipped up xenophobia and race, wrecked the economy, cut off from all the social progress in the Western world.

And Russia has been using the AfD to put pressure on Merkel to drop the sanctions against Russia - that the UK & US demanded

We still have the effects of austerity.

Last time, it was all about the magic money tree. Remember Theresa May and having a go at the nurse.

Well - that attack has gone now. The Tories have found the tree.
So they are going to have to find other ways to attack Corbyn. No doubt they will.
There are plenty of ways to attack Johnson and Mogg. There are plenty of ways to persuade people to vote Labour.

We've had years of austerity. We have all the pictures, the stories - all to do with the Conservative Government.

Remind the people that it was this Government that lied about education funding - when Gove and Johnson were around, They lied about the effects of low police numbers.

Remind people that it was this Government that has had austerity for years.

They need to make Brexit an irrelevance. Say that they will go for the WA. It's either that or Remain. Give people that choice in a vote? Maybe take No Deal off the table? Who knows...

But recognise the issues of Brexit. Those are Labour values. Or at least, they should be.

I'd take most things over no deal. Including Corbyn.

As I've said before I'm sure I'm not alone.

I said I'd look more at what Keiran Pedley from Ipsos Mori said yesterday and today. Here are some thoughts, on what shows up, if you look at the hard numbers of the popular vote.

In response to this:
Election Maps UK@ElectionMapsUK
Westminster Voting Intention:

If Election BEFORE 31st Oct:

CON: 37%
LAB: 30%
BXP: 9%

If Election AFTER 31st Oct:

CON: 28%
LAB: 28%
BXP: 18%

Via @ICMResearch

He replied
Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley
Personally would take this with a huge whack of salt.

I agree with him. It not including the LDs is a HUGE omission for a start.

What I'm more interested in is what he said on this thread, but converting it to numbers rather than percentages that are harder to compare.
twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1169686637711900672

So here goes.

He says based on all the polls available they are predicting shifts in voter numbers as follows
Lab to Lib - 1,931,688 to 3,090,700 votes
Lab to Brexit - 1,287,792 to 1,416,571
Total loss from Labour between 2,704,363 and 4,507,271
Would equate to a popular vote of between 8,370,647 and 10,173,555 for the Labour Party

Con to Lib - 818,201 and 1,500,035
Con to Bxt - 954,568 and 2,863,703
Total loss between 1,772,769 and 4,363,738
Would equate to a popular vote of between 9,272,946 and 11,863,915

LD from Lab - 1,931,688 to 3,090,700
LD from Con - 818,201 and 1,500,035
Total gain between 2,749,889 and 4,590,735
Would equate to a popular vote of between 5,121,799 and 6,962,645

BXP from Lab - 1,287,792 to 1,416,571
BXP from Con - 954,568 and 2,863,703
Total gain - 2,242,360 and 4,280,274
Would equate to a popular vote of between 2,836,428 and 4,874,342

For some reference here is the popular vote for 2010, 2015 and 2017

2010
Con - 10,703,754 (36.1%)
Lab - 8,609,527 (29.0%)
LD - 6,836,824 (23%)
UKIP - 919,546 (3.1%)
Which starts to look very similar to the figures above apart from the BXP figures and I do ponder a bit about that. Its been said before that there is a reverse of the 2015 collaspe going on.

2015
CON - 11,334,226 (36.7%)
LAB - 9,347,273 (30.4%)
UKIP 3,881,099 (12.6%)
LD 2,415,916 (7.9%)
And this is where the UKIP vote starts to look a lot like the popular vote being suggested by polling atm.

2017 GE Popular Vote
Cons - 13,636,684 votes (42.4%)
Labour - 12,877,918 votes (40.0%)
LDs - 2,371,910 votes (7.4%)
UKIP - 594,068 votes (1.8%)

If you look at these figures, it really is a big deal where those votes are located. Traditionally the UKIP problem is those votes were evenly distributed nationally rather than concerntrated, whereas the LD has been concerntrated rather than evenly distributed.

The difference between 2010 and 2015 for the Conservatives in terms of percentage was just 0.6% more, at 36.7% - but because of distribution it gave them their majority. It really does all come down to WHERE and how much votes are stacked up. For example in 2017 one of the problems Labour had was a 'stacking' of the vote in certain constituencies.

Its also interesting to compare this with the EU Elections popular vote (I've included Green here, because Pro Rep makes them more relevant than at GE - noting the pollsters observation going on is that the LD/Green vote is fairly interchangable atm because of Brexit)

Con - 1,512,809 (8.8%)
BxP - 5,248,533 (30.5%)
Lab - 2,347,255 (13.6%)
LD - 3,367,284 (19.6%)
Green - 1,881,306 (11.8%)

This put the Euro BxP vote HIGHER than all the top estimates for a GE by over 1million. What is going on with those 1 million voters? Tories who will just vote BxP for the Euros? Is this who Cummings is working on motivating?

However the LD vote doesn't suffer this problem at all. Quite the opposite - possibly from many of those Green votes because of FPTP. Obviously Brexit ISN'T the only thing driving people to consider voting LD, despite them having a very narrow manifesto at the moment. It smacks of wider discontent with the Tories and Labour. I don't think we can assume that voter dissatifaction will go to the BxP for this reason. It depends if you have a more general anti Tory and/or anti Lab vote going on too

The sheer number of Tory and Lab voters who stayed at home is really significant here too. For all the talk of all the stuff about Brexit, getting that vote motivated and to the polls is really important for the result and it shows the extent to which there is an apathy over Brexit and how depressed voters were with the leadership of both May and Corbyn.

Can Johnson reverse that? Is he viewed as doing a good job? If he starts to be rapidly percieved like May then he is in trouble. Traditionally, new PMs have a honeymoon period and then their net satisfaction rating drops. At the moment Johnson has a fairly good net satisfaction rating. In upcoming polls I'd keep an eye out for if they do leader satisfaction ratings, particularly how Johnson compares to Corbyn. The longer things go on, the more likely this number is going to drop and this will affect turnout for the Tories.

You might want to ponder what the effect of a BxP/Tory electoral Pact would be too in the context of voter demoralisation.

You also have to ask, how important is the resonance effect on Brexit? It has to be on wider issues such as law and order and security too, for this authoritarian tone. And its interesting what the press conference yesterday was all about. Giving a visual about being the party of law and order.

I'd argue that Johnson therefore cant afford any civil unrest in a no deal aftermath before a GE. And if there is even a mere hint of it, he's liable to go in HARD as it works for him. Any Extinction Rebellion protests planned in the next few weeks could be a gift to him. Could he do this with No Deal? Big question of how much manpower he's got there.

We also know that No 10 is trying to make a big effort to suppress any notion that a deal with the US will involve the health service. (Trump talking of a trade deal including the NHS is the propaganda, Johnson doesn't want).

Lord Ashcroft made a number of observations after the Euros which are important. Of them, I think the most interesting was what 2017 Con voters who switched did. Those who went Brexit intended to switch back to Con for a GE. But he also found that those who switched to LD were highly likely not to return to the Cons. The LDs tend to have Tory marginals so the effects of these patterns are significant as we know from the 2015 result.

I am also very curious as to the LD strategy, and how they are trying to put their defectors to stand in seats they haven't won before, but they think they can have a bloody good crack at in London. They are obviously putting a fair amount of thought into where they think they might be able to make a mark or even a breakthrough.

There's a lot going on, and there are elements which mean you could get something of a breakthrough from the LDs in unexpected places just as much as a Tory/BxP pact success.

I think the Johnson resigning idea is one to take seriously btw. Lots of reasons why it works for him (remember no deal is illegal but he doesnt want to be seen NOT to no deal if he's in the hot seat).

I think Corbyn has been the only grown up in the room these last few days. I do wish his votability was higher though. I rather agree it would be another hung Parliament.

I think you’re all underestimating how much the rebels detest Johnson now he’s kicked them out of the party.

Think of someone like Hammond with a huge majority, and only a few nights ago a vote of confidence in him from his constituency. That probably gave him the confidence to vote against Johnson.

Andrew Lilico is leading you all up the garden path. The strategy is not Boris resigning follow by a VoNC. It is Boris resigning in order to make way for JC or, AN Other to take the surrender bill over to the EU and beg for an extension on any terms. The extension will not be till 31 Jan as PV / GE etc needs longer. This means it needs a Parliamentary vote to endorse. Outside possibility this causes the wheels to come off the GNU charabang but more likely gets through. Then the GE gets called by the GNU. Everyone but Boris "owns" the surrender bill and the unwanted election and the extension and its conditions which likely include a PV and / or passing the WA.

Tory Party runs a campaign promising to rip up the extension and leave.

No-one else questioning the democratic legitimacy of Parliamentarians voting through an extension and then not facing the consequences at the ballot box because they have already been sacked and have stated they are not seeking re-election? Actually a bit shocked Clarke and Soames think this is OK. Grieve and Hammond looking to stand as Independents is slightly better but only marginally.

See - I am probably more inclined to vote Lib Dem - but my seat is Labour at 60% with Conservatives at about 30%, There was a strong surge to Labour at the last election.

The constituency voted Remain and we have a good MP.

I voted Labour to keep the Conservatives out. That was more important to me than going with what I wanted to do.

I am still not sure about what to do at the next election - I don't want the Conservatives in at all.

Which is why PR would be good.

When those ex-Tory MPs are considering whether to support Corbyn:

• they know their careers as Tories are over - so nothing to lose
• revenge over the PM - who has rebelled himself - but who expelled them after years of service, some in Cabinet
• the enemy of my enemy ......

I am aware of that howabout. Lilico has talked about the idea of how a GNU is his wet dream before too.

Thats partly why I think that Johnson resigning is a realistic idea.

Tory Party runs a campaign promising to rip up the extension and leave

Meanwhile, the new Government is able to release all the documents prepared under the current Government about the effects of No Deal.

They need to play dirty and play with people's minds just as much as as Cummings.

Or they just need to bring back the WA.

howabout We are questioning the legitimacy of a minority govt forcing through No Deal by prorogue, never used like this before to frustrate parliament

MPs have never been expected to stop voting if they are not standing at the next GE, for whatever reason
Many MPs every session are retiring at the next GE
Are you inventing new rules ?