Westminstenders: "He's in trouble". No he's not.

[RedToothBrush]

All day I've seen nothing but comments and tweets about he Johnson is in trouble and he's losing it.

They are wrong. He's far from done.

Take a step through the Looking Glass and the world looks different.

Those tweeting and reporting all care about events and are following closely. They are unrepresentative of the population as a whole who don't give two shiny shits.

And so we have the Trump dynamic.

The Liberal elite of broadcasters and journalists who are only seeing through the lens of their own judgement, not from the repackaged marketing.

Instead they are unwittingly publishing the images and slogans in the format Johnson wants and enter the minds of the public as planned.

The media are out of step with perceptions. And that's worrying. They don't see what's coming.

Johnson will have an election at some point. With the Tory party cleansed of moderates it is the Brexit Party one way or another, whether it be by takeover or coalition. And its riding high in the polling.

Even though even his brother has abandoned him, the future looks positive for Johnson as his opponents have a complete lack of self awareness and no understanding of the opposition they are taking on; they are campaigning in a way that plays into the hands of Johnson.

Despite his lack of majority and apparently absence of plan or speech notes, the biggest mistake you can make now is to write off Johnson.

You do so at your own peril.

Pay close attention to how authoritarians work and what's already happened in the US. We are on course to repeat it.

Just an add on 2 weeks ago two people had all their tyres slashed. All our cars are disabled peoples cars. Police never bothered to come out at all.

Anyone in Downing St this afternoon?

At not in.

I thought this was interesting:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-49616134

Actually, this would be rather awesome

These threads move fast!

I’ve looked through last nights posts and I still don’t see any which state what a vote for Corbyn’s Labour means in terms of Brexit which is because he has never made his position clear, because he actually is a Leaver at heart but that contradicts the party line.

Choosing Corbyn just because it’s an alternative to the Tories won’t work, it will just divide the vote.

Labour need to state exactly what their Brexit plans would be, taking into account what we all now know is and isn’t possible,then people can decide whether to support that.

Right now we’d be virtually be going back to square one with a Labour government as they still want a version of Brexit that’s impossible without dropping red lines so they need to be clear on which red lines they are planning to drop.

And all that's if the EU even let us extent again -Macron doesn’t seem keen and unless it’s clear what it’s for I can’t see him agreeing

Those who won’t contemplate voting for Corbyn- at least he can be gotten rid of in 5 years time. A No Deal Brexit will affect the UK for decades.

Choosing Corbyn just because it’s an alternative to the Tories won’t work, it will just divide the vote

I agree

Labour need to state exactly what their Brexit plans would be, taking into account what we all now know is and isn’t possible,then people can decide whether to support that

Labour is in a pickle. Whenever Labour MPs are asked on Question Time what is Labour's Brexit policy there is never an answer.

Figures are not proven conclusively, but it is estimated that the labour constituencies voted;

148 leave

84 remain

Hence labour sitting on fence. They were full of "we want a general election" until Farage topped the EU elections.

A recent poll indicates that more people fear Corbyn as a PM than they fear a no deal Brexit.

Corbyn- at least he can be gotten rid of in 5 years time

And by that time he would have completely ruined the country. Corbyn doesn't even need that long, five months with his policies will see the country over an economical cliff. What great logic you have.

Read his policies and then tell come back on here and tell us brexit will be worse. You do know that most people completely disagree with you, including labour MPs whom will not support an election because they know they will lose!!!

Suddenly...pwoof! ... they seemed to go up in smoke... leaving barely any trace... like they'd never even existed! So strange!

tobee Its called going to bed, some of us have very early starts.

I thought Corbyn had little chance of winning, but seeing all the desperate Tories and fhe Banker From Moscow - whose grammar style changes dramatically from post to post ....

Blimey, maybe he can do it after all

A No Deal Brexit will affect the UK for decades

Problem is that even with an extension we will face this problem again in a few months if people can’t decide what they want to vote for.

We have an anti-no Deal coalition at the moment, but within that there are people who want a PV and people who want the WA.

Labour need to state exactly what their Brexit plans would be, taking into account what we all now know is and isn’t possible,then people can decide whether to support that

Yes, I agree with this. All parties should be spelling out exactly what their policy is. I hope Labour's election manifesto is clear, but fear it will not be.

I also wonder what Tory policy will be in an election. The direction of travel seems to be towards no deal, despite all the rhetoric of wanting a deal. They have their own rock and hard place. If Tories go full no deal, they essentially become the Brexit party. In that case, I can't see them doing an electoral deal with Farage as he's suggested, because they will consider his threat neutralised. But will it be? Will Farage stand down his candidates? That strategy will lose them anyone who wants a deal (or revoke, though they're likely lost already). The numbers could be very tight. On the other hand, if Tories continue to say they want a deal, then Farage keeps the pressure on. Remember he's been pretty quiet lately. Saving it for an election campaign?

Choosing Corbyn just because it’s an alternative to the Tories won’t work, it will just divide the vote.

So what would your plan be ?

You do know that most people completely disagree with you, including labour MPs whom will not support an election because they know they will lose!!!

Yes I do realise that most people disagree with me- I personally have never voted Labour and dislike Corbyn very much but I don’t believe he could cause more issues in 5 months than No Deal.

The best case scenario would be for Corbyn to resign!

What we are seeing now is a realigning of politics in this country.

The conservatives are the first to go through this, with the restructuring of their MPs and members. Remain supporters going to over to the Lib Dem, where they should have been from the beginning. The labour leave voters will be next to team up with Boris and the conservatives as the Brexit party and Conservatives come together.

Labour will be next, yes they will rupture next, at some point they need to face up to the brexit decision, and when they finally do. The same thing will happen to them. It is unavoidable. Our country is split down the middle and labour will not be able to avoid the day of reckoning for much longer. The fence they were straddled on is just about to collapse.

Labour are in the worst position possible now, but much worse is to come when an open revolt begins over brexit. Up to now they have let the conservatives take the pain. What do you think is going to have happen to leave MPs in Leave constituencies when they are expected to campaign for a second referendum or some such thing for labour in a matter of weeks?

We will eventually see that leave and remain will have their own parties, with their own message, that is already happening in the conservatives and lib dems, but labour still have to face the music, it won't look so pretty then.

Yesterday's politics is dead now. The final battle is on, there is much more to come next week. It is certainly not over, but only just beginning.

And by that time he would have completely ruined the country. Corbyn doesn't even need that long, five months with his policies will see the country over an economical cliff.

You’re still not in touch with reality.

You’re scaremongering and talking utter nonsense. He’d need a huge majority to implement all his policies. And even then the legislative timetable wouldn’t allow him to move that quickly.

The best case scenario would be for Corbyn to resign!

No chance.

Read his policies and then tell come back on here and tell us brexit will be worse

Which policies exactly?

Yes, a Uk badly split must decide what it wants

However, the main purpose of a Rebel Alliance extension would be to have a GE before Brexit,
so the main parties can say in their manifesto what they will do

And no, I don't expect Labour to state which red lines they will drop before new negotiations even start

The GE will let voters choose if they want No Deal or not - and quite probably most will vote on other policies:

e.g. should it be the poor or the rich who pay for the mess the Tories have got us into ?
After all the years of austerity, it's the turn of the rich to pay
and some of them are squealing already .... or their stooges are

So what would your plan be?

As I said above, Labour need to make their Brexit position clear so people can choose whether to support it or not.

Right now people would not be actively choosing Corbyn because of what his Brexit plans are (on account of the fact he has none) but rather refusing to choose the Tories.

And that won’t end well because it will just drag things out even more, still with no clear goal in mind

Who gains from changing politics to be all about Brexit ? 🤔

Those who don't want us to notice that the rich have been getting richer and the poor getting poorer
That Tory governments widen the gap

Who gains from No Deal ? 🤔

Hedge-funders / gamblers who bet against UK businesses and Sterling

Do most voters really applaud people who make hundreds of millions each,
when Sterling / UK businesses / UK bonds plummet in value ?

It is in their financial interests for Britain to do BADLY

e.g. Odey and his Brexit windfalls

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/28/crispin-odey-hedge-fund-bets-against-uk-economy-brexit-profit-falls

Odey was one of the most prominent supporters of the drive to leave the EU and donated almost £900,000 to pro-Brexit campaigns.

He placed huge bets against the pound and government bonds^
in the run-up to the June 2016 referendum^

and made an estimated £220m profit when the pound collapsed following the leave victory.

The day after the vote, he told the BBC:
“There’s that Italian expression – ‘Il mattino ha l’oro in bocca’ (the morning has gold in its mouth)
and never has one felt so much that idea as this morning.”

Odey has boasted that each day of Brexit-related political crisis is a “good day” for him and his hedge fund.

“I have had a good day,” he told the Times last month, on a day when the pound fell 2%.
“Bad days tend to be good days for us.”

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-5824697/Brexiteer-Odey-bets-500m-AGAINST-British-businesses.html

His firm Odey Asset Management has taken out more than £500 million ‘short’ positions
– which are essentially a gamble that a share price will fall –
on some of Britain’s biggest firms, implying that he expects a poor performance from them.
…
Odey’s apparent lack of confidence in flagship British firms stands in marked contrast to his fund’s investments in other countries,

including France, Germany and the US, where he is mainly backing shares to rise.

Remain supporters going to over to the Lib Dem, where they should have been from the beginning.

If all remain supporters go over to the LibDems, then you’ve got nothing to worry about from Corbyn - because 48% of the vote would result in the LibDems winning a GE by a landslide.

Newish poster and promise not to discuss salaries.

If BJ resigns pre - extension to preserve his Brexit 'purity' and JC is caretaker, the potential fatal flaw for BJ is that power is handed to a GNU (in effect) which if it can hold together can remain in power until 2022. It can use dealing with Brexit/national crisis as reason to avoid a GE

If, while in power, JC managed either to come up with a Brexit solution - eg quick negotiation of SM/CU (PV only if absolutely necessary) which works, then he becomes a statesman, unites the country etc etc - and he creates huge electoral advantage for Labour. Soft leavers satisfied. Remaining leavers marginalised as ultra loons. New focus on austerity & social justice & political debate moves on.

I think the points made by Red, DGR & others about the need for a quick solution which respects the vote are very well made & the person who manages that will get serious kudos.

If it's SM/CU that leaves option to rejoin v easily which should satisfy most remainers now that they've experienced the real possibility of the threat of no deal.

JC should also close off all the loopholes ( I think they still exist) which allow EU citizens to claim benefits immediately etc so that he can neutralise some of the arguments about 'forriners' taking 'our resources'.

Anyway, so many ifs & no doubt my plan is full of holes.

"So what would your plan be?"

To vote to protect the better off and fuck the poor