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Brexit

Westminstenders: "He's in trouble". No he's not.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 06/09/2019 00:48

All day I've seen nothing but comments and tweets about he Johnson is in trouble and he's losing it.

They are wrong. He's far from done.

Take a step through the Looking Glass and the world looks different.

Those tweeting and reporting all care about events and are following closely. They are unrepresentative of the population as a whole who don't give two shiny shits.

And so we have the Trump dynamic.

The Liberal elite of broadcasters and journalists who are only seeing through the lens of their own judgement, not from the repackaged marketing.

Instead they are unwittingly publishing the images and slogans in the format Johnson wants and enter the minds of the public as planned.

The media are out of step with perceptions. And that's worrying. They don't see what's coming.

Johnson will have an election at some point. With the Tory party cleansed of moderates it is the Brexit Party one way or another, whether it be by takeover or coalition. And its riding high in the polling.

Even though even his brother has abandoned him, the future looks positive for Johnson as his opponents have a complete lack of self awareness and no understanding of the opposition they are taking on; they are campaigning in a way that plays into the hands of Johnson.

Despite his lack of majority and apparently absence of plan or speech notes, the biggest mistake you can make now is to write off Johnson.

You do so at your own peril.

Pay close attention to how authoritarians work and what's already happened in the US. We are on course to repeat it.

OP posts:
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chomalungma · 06/09/2019 23:53

Thats partly why I think that Johnson resigning is a realistic idea

You can get odds of 5/6 on him being the shorted serving PM ever.

Alsohuman · 06/09/2019 23:55

Agreed @BigChocFrenzy. Added to that they don’t recognise their party as it is with Johnson at the helm. The ship of party loyalty has sailed because the Conservative party to which they owe allegiance doesn’t exist any more.

ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 06/09/2019 23:56

Resigning gives BJ a great platform.
“I was prepared to step way from No 10 rather than going cap in hand to Brussels to frustrate the will of the people...”

ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 06/09/2019 23:57

away

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 23:58

Yes. Lillico probably has got it wrong

Once BJ realised No Deal would be a disaster, he knew a minority govt would soon crash & burn trying to cope with it

So he is trying to make the Opposition avoid No Deal if possible
but since that's unlikely, he is desperate to get a GE, the 3rd in 4 years - hello italy ! - to try to win a 5-year term, before the effects of No Deal become obvious

chomalungma · 06/09/2019 23:59

Resigning gives BJ a great platform

True - when Corbyn releases the Yellowhammer documents and other documents, it also gives him a great platform to say what has been avoided for the country.

And he has to target those people who were 'soft leavers' - not the hard core Brexiteers.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/09/2019 00:02

Yes, BJ needs a big majority to tide his govt over the disaster that No Deal will be for years

So he is spending all his time posing and scheming
and of course, like when he was Mayor of London, some other people are doing the work of actually running the place

BigChocFrenzy · 07/09/2019 00:03

Brexit is the Tory project to make everyone forget that other great Tory project: Austerity

chomalungma · 07/09/2019 00:05

Brexit is the Tory project to make everyone forget that other great Tory project: Austerity

If I were Labour, that's what I would focus on in the election campaign. And remind people who brought it on.

ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 07/09/2019 00:06

Yellowhammer will be discounted as project fear or worst case scenario planning. Corbyn will be accused of playing party politics at a critical time etc.

The majority of people are so sick of brexit and the uncertainty that they just want a resolution and the focus on the next steps.

Peregrina · 07/09/2019 00:07

I do wonder if Johnson chose to restore the whip whether the MPs would accept it. I can't see Ken Clarke bothering, he was going to stand down after the 2015 election, but then stayed on in 2017, so he knows that his Parliamentary career now only has a few weeks to run. Hammond had a cold fury, so would he bother? Somehow I doubt it.

I was musing about Ed Vaizey's Wantage constituency. He is another with a huge majority, something like 20,000 and very much a pig with a blue rosette territory. If he stands again as an Independent Conservative there is a real prospect of a split vote, especially if the Brexit party stand, in which both Labour and LibDems would fancy their chances. Labour came a poor second last time. I don't think the Brexit party would hoover up many votes in a predominantly Remain area.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/09/2019 00:11

How can the govt dismiss its own planning documents as Project Fear ? Confused

Yes, I know that hardcore Brexiters will lap up anything the Tories tell them

However, if Yellowhammer is so incompetent - or subversive - then we're in real trouble after No Deal

ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 07/09/2019 00:11

I wouldn’t be surprised if there are deals being done in the Tory party to get everyone onside with a promise to throw BJ under the bus in due course.

ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 07/09/2019 00:13

BCF
Look at the horrific mess of the Iraq WMD dossier. Government’s interpret things as they want and there is a deep distrust of “experts”.

ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 07/09/2019 00:14

Ignore the stray apostrophe!

BigChocFrenzy · 07/09/2019 00:20

The next steps after No Deal will take several years:

The govt will have to try to get a deal with the US that doesn't involve wrecking the NHS - which both Trump & Pence want

The EU will have the UK signing the 3 main terms of the WA - backstop, exit bill, E27 expat rights - as prerequisites to even start future trade talks

Meanwhile, 45% of UK exports will be delayed or stopped, as the EU has to treat the UK as a 3rd country under WTO rules

The UK has lost 40 FTAs covering 70 non-EU countries and 800 assorted other trade agreements with many other countries. These will need replacing

Some other countries, e.g. Canada, have said they aren't interested in a trade deal with the UK, because the UK is setting tariffs to zero (for the sectors the export)
and this is already better than any deal, as they will be setting WTO tariffs against UK goods

Building agencies from scratch to replace EURATOM, EMA (Medicines Agency) etc
......

BigChocFrenzy · 07/09/2019 00:25

All that could either mean the country turns to hard right authoritarianism for several years

Or a minority / small majority Tory govt is forced out by public fury and then Corbyn or a more presentable Labour leader is elected in a landslide.
Tories decimated for a generation, while Labour remake the country as they want

Or .... just imo the most likely ...
a series of hung Parliaments and GEs every year or two, as a bitterly divided country gets angrier and more impatient that politicians can't repair the No Deal disaster

LadyWithLapdog · 07/09/2019 00:27

Good analysis, DuRigeurMortis.

DoctorTwo · 07/09/2019 00:34

keep democracy. It’s the only way.

Nothing says 'democracy' like shutting down the whole of parliament for 5 weeks @Greenpeacefriendforlife.

RedToothBrush · 07/09/2019 00:50

Brexit is the Tory project to make everyone forget that other great Tory project: Austerity

This is good for one target group certainly.

OP posts:
DeRigueurMortis · 07/09/2019 00:56

Thank you Lady

I'm no political strategist and far less informed than many posters here.

I'm just feeding back on what I see amongst the people I associate with/friends with/related to.

SequinnedSlippers · 07/09/2019 01:10

Dante Gabriel Rossetti

“ Something might always upset someone”

You might wish to reflect on the consequences of ignoring the needs of the marginalised from a position of imagined superiority.

That chicken is coming home to roost at the moment.

tobee · 07/09/2019 02:13

Catching up on today's thread.

Whatever happened to that charming new poster, with the unlikely username, slagging off people not having a high enough salary, talking about working in banking like they were the Queen? They were posting with regular violence and then ...suddenly...pwoof! ... they seemed to go up in smoke... leaving barely any trace... like they'd never even existed! So strange!

LonelyTiredandLow · 07/09/2019 05:21

Cor the more I hear about chickens, the more I want one as a pet Smile Am baffled as to the reminder of the chlorinated versions everywhere in the press though...not what BoZoCum (I think there was agreement we can use these again now) was aiming for! Grin

I had a very interesting chat with a friend this evening, who surprised me by admitting she voted Leave. I had suspected but we don't see each other often. From what she said she is completely ashamed of her vote, which by her admission hadn't happened while TM was in power. The BoZo effect and realising she would have to vote Tory seems to have triggered understanding in her that she has been completely used. She has had loads of targeted ads and says she just wants to hide whenever she opens her laptop now Sad. She also admitted the Brexit vote was her first ever vote (I was a bit Shock at that as she is older than me) and she has decided to never vote again!

Quite an interesting night and made me wonder about the far reaching implications of the BoZo Effect and BoZoCum all over SM. Something to bear in mind I think.

Sostenueto · 07/09/2019 06:16

Well started the day very very early today! Had a prowler in our carpark dog going mad at 1 am. Thought should I call the police? Round here average wait of at least an hour if they even bother to come. Then stayed up because I took dd and dgd to station for 6 am train to London for Kings College London open day. Only one more to do thank goodness! Very stressful uni selection. Found police here when I got home. Apparently neighbour rang at 1.15 am and police arrived 5 minutes before I got home at 5.45 am. Very efficient police here then!

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