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Brexit

Westminstenders: "He's in trouble". No he's not.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 06/09/2019 00:48

All day I've seen nothing but comments and tweets about he Johnson is in trouble and he's losing it.

They are wrong. He's far from done.

Take a step through the Looking Glass and the world looks different.

Those tweeting and reporting all care about events and are following closely. They are unrepresentative of the population as a whole who don't give two shiny shits.

And so we have the Trump dynamic.

The Liberal elite of broadcasters and journalists who are only seeing through the lens of their own judgement, not from the repackaged marketing.

Instead they are unwittingly publishing the images and slogans in the format Johnson wants and enter the minds of the public as planned.

The media are out of step with perceptions. And that's worrying. They don't see what's coming.

Johnson will have an election at some point. With the Tory party cleansed of moderates it is the Brexit Party one way or another, whether it be by takeover or coalition. And its riding high in the polling.

Even though even his brother has abandoned him, the future looks positive for Johnson as his opponents have a complete lack of self awareness and no understanding of the opposition they are taking on; they are campaigning in a way that plays into the hands of Johnson.

Despite his lack of majority and apparently absence of plan or speech notes, the biggest mistake you can make now is to write off Johnson.

You do so at your own peril.

Pay close attention to how authoritarians work and what's already happened in the US. We are on course to repeat it.

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JustAnotherPoster00 · 06/09/2019 23:05

Even he shouldn't be that dim

Unlikely, he wants the GE so I'm sure its a case of sooner the better for Corbyn after the extension is agreed

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 23:05

The Alliance would agree beforehand when they want the GE, or Corbyn won't agree to be the fall guy

MeganBacon · 06/09/2019 23:06

Who are the Rebel Alliance? Do you think Tories like Soames would ever vote for JC? I really don't. Grieve I think has said he might consider it but I very much doubt any others would touch him with a bargepole.

CendrillonSings · 06/09/2019 23:07

Well, this week of complete and utter political devastation for Boris has had a big effect on the polls. Survation reports the Tory lead has plunged from 7% to ... 5%. Labour static, Lib Dems down, BXP up.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7436869/Almost-half-Johnson-early-election-want-no-deal-Corbyn-poll-shows.html

VOTING INTENTION:
Con 29% (-2)
Lab 24% (nc)
LD 18% (-3)
BXP 17% (+3)
Green 3% (nc)
SNP 4% (nc)
Verdict: Flesh wound ... for now

BEST PM:
Boris: 46%
Don't Know: 29%
Corbyn: 26%
Verdict: Lol

CORBYN BECOMES PM VS NO DEAL:
Corbyn: 31%
No Deal: 52%
Verdict: Double Lol!

Oakenbeach · 06/09/2019 23:08

He will be in opposition, with the rebels who will be unlikely to support jc in a vonc. I don't know exactly how many it is now but say 317 (incl. rebels) and he'd need 326 to win it - with a few DUPs and surely the LibDems would love an election? I'm pretty sure he'd get it and it will be the strategy.

Why on earth would the LibDems play along with BJs game when Labour wouldn’t.... especially when the LibDems are at one with Labour in refusing to support BJs call for a General Election. It makes no sense....
The Tories now have a majority of negative 43, and that figure counts the DUP as Tories.... 22 gullible switchers would be needed! Can’t see it happening.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 06/09/2019 23:09

Do you think Tories like Soames would ever vote for JC?

Nope but all they need to do is abstain

MeganBacon · 06/09/2019 23:09

Corbyn is so desperate to move into No. 10 if only for a few hours that he will agree to try to form a government when the Queen asks him no matter what.

MeganBacon · 06/09/2019 23:10

Because the LibDems are the party who stand to gain the most from the next GE.
Also, frankly they had an alliance with Tories not long ago so what does it do for their credibility if they now have an alliance with Labour?

Oakenbeach · 06/09/2019 23:12

Survation reports the Tory lead has plunged from 7% to ... 5%

Given the margin of error is 3%, a 2% drop is not a “plunge”’any more than gentle breeze is a hurricane.

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 23:12

If Corbyn doesn't have the votes, then he won't get to be PM in the first place.

Although some Tories here seem terrified of Corbyn as PM even for a few days,
those ex-Tories sacked by their own party after years of loyal service might prefer those few days to a No Deal

We'll see.

If there aren't enough votes for Corbyn, then of course MPs may prefer to pass the WA instead
and stop No Deal directly, instead of gambling that he'll win the next GE

MeganBacon · 06/09/2019 23:14

He doesn't need votes. He'll be the caretaker pm who has to "surrender" to the EU by asking for an extension.

chomalungma · 06/09/2019 23:15

iven the margin of error is 3%, a 2% drop is not a “plunge”’any more than gentle breeze is a hurricane

Margin of error? Don't use such technical language about statistics Grin

How else would the DM survive if it couldn't argue that in a poll of 2000 people, 47% is more significant than 46%....

chomalungma · 06/09/2019 23:16

He'll be the caretaker pm who has to "surrender" to the EU by asking for an extension

Maybe he should just bring back the WA again...and surprise people Grin

Hazardtired · 06/09/2019 23:16

After intially saying nope hasnt Ken Clarke said he'd pack Corbyn in a vonc even if that meant backing him as temporary leader?

I think the word temporary is key and the fact we're in unusual times.

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 06/09/2019 23:17

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 06/09/2019 23:18

chomalungma
Grin

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 23:18

Tories can't win a majority with under 30%
and a working majority requires about 33%

That poll would almost certainly mean another hung Parliament, because BXP increasing is always bad news for the Tories

chomalungma · 06/09/2019 23:19

All I can say is that Conference season is going to be fascinating.

ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 06/09/2019 23:20

Not if the Tories and BXP divvy up the seats. If the BXP doesn’t split the Tory vote in key seats then he might well get a majority

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 23:22

With those figures, Corbyn might actually be in with a chance
Depends how well he and BJ campaign - maybe the debates too

CendrillonSings · 06/09/2019 23:22

That poll would almost certainly mean another hung Parliament, because BXP increasing is always bad news for the Tories

It sure as hell doesn't mean Corbyn though, does it? And those Best PM and No Deal vs. Corbyn numbers are devastating, despite the nonsense you were talking earlier.

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 23:22

What nonsense ?

Alsohuman · 06/09/2019 23:23

I think you’re all underestimating how much the rebels detest Johnson now he’s kicked them out of the party. They’d vote against him in a VoC in a heartbeat. They don’t feel they owe him any loyalty at all. After all his own brother resigned at the worst possible time. The moderates loathe him.

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 06/09/2019 23:23

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 23:23

btw, It is 1987 since the Tories won a good-sized majority