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Brexit

Westminstenders: "He's in trouble". No he's not.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 06/09/2019 00:48

All day I've seen nothing but comments and tweets about he Johnson is in trouble and he's losing it.

They are wrong. He's far from done.

Take a step through the Looking Glass and the world looks different.

Those tweeting and reporting all care about events and are following closely. They are unrepresentative of the population as a whole who don't give two shiny shits.

And so we have the Trump dynamic.

The Liberal elite of broadcasters and journalists who are only seeing through the lens of their own judgement, not from the repackaged marketing.

Instead they are unwittingly publishing the images and slogans in the format Johnson wants and enter the minds of the public as planned.

The media are out of step with perceptions. And that's worrying. They don't see what's coming.

Johnson will have an election at some point. With the Tory party cleansed of moderates it is the Brexit Party one way or another, whether it be by takeover or coalition. And its riding high in the polling.

Even though even his brother has abandoned him, the future looks positive for Johnson as his opponents have a complete lack of self awareness and no understanding of the opposition they are taking on; they are campaigning in a way that plays into the hands of Johnson.

Despite his lack of majority and apparently absence of plan or speech notes, the biggest mistake you can make now is to write off Johnson.

You do so at your own peril.

Pay close attention to how authoritarians work and what's already happened in the US. We are on course to repeat it.

OP posts:
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BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 22:39

news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-branded-david-cameron-girly-swot-leaked-document-reveals-11803807

Boris Johnson wrote on a private cabinetpaper that David Cameron is a "girly swot",
according to a leaked document obtained by Sky News.

Partially-redacted cabinet papers were released by a court on Thursday

Peregrina · 06/09/2019 22:39

Imo remainers who just can’t conceive leaving and place staying in the EU above all else are as cult like as “No-deal only” Brexiteers, and oblivious to the damage they risk doing to democracy and the fabric of society in this country.

Except I don't think there are any such Remainers. But even if there were, since they are not in Government they are not going to damage democracy or the fabric of society.

The very hard left might damage the fabric of society, but they are Lexiters, so they would be happy with no deal, if they ever got in.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 06/09/2019 22:43

Andrew Lilico in the Telegraph has already discussed BJ deliberately resigning so JC gets in and then BJ calling a VONC that JC will lose in order to trigger a GE.

Johnson doesnt have the numbers for it to pass

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 22:44

"then BJ calling a VONC that JC will lose "

Well, if Corbyn doesn't have the votes, he won't get to be PM in the first place

If he becomes PM, then Rebel Alliance would have agreed they want him to request an extension and then call a GE well before Brexit

So why vote him out until he has done what is agreed ?

chomalungma · 06/09/2019 22:45

Andrew Lilico in the Telegraph has already discussed BJ deliberately resigning so JC gets in and then BJ calling a VONC that JC will lose in order to trigger a GE

I am sure this has all been wargamed by all sides.

Oakenbeach · 06/09/2019 22:47

not a single leaver will EVER think the WA is Brexit. Not ever

Nonsense.... My DP voted leave and believes the WA would be acceptable me.

A significant number of people who voted leave aren’t committed Brexit ultras, they’re people with only a passing interest in politics who just want Brexit over with. They want their vote respected and don’t really understand what the “backstop” or “customs union” are, let alone care about it.

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 22:47

The one thing that may save us from a hard right authoritarian govt with a 5-year term is that the current lot seem to have Gaming By Baldrick

(If Cum had more hair, he might look like Baldrick - I don't know what Baldrick would look like, shorn)

Butterymuffin · 06/09/2019 22:48

How would this work? Can't see how Johnson, having resigned as PM, would then be able to get the votes to win a VONC? He can't win a vote now, while he's actually PM!

MeganBacon · 06/09/2019 22:49

A vonc only needs a simple majority to pass, BJ does have the numbers. It will be his strategy. JC will be a caretaker pm for just long enough to ask for the extension.

ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 06/09/2019 22:50

Corbyn can attempt to form a government. You don’t have to prove you have the votes, we have had minority governments before.

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 22:51

Claire Perry O'Neill, another One Nation Tory MP, also announced she is not standing at the next GE

@redtoothbrush BJ / Cum don't need mass deselection - the remaining moderate Tories are deselecting themselves

The Tory benches in the new Parliament are going to look very different from anything we've ever seen before

ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 06/09/2019 22:52

The SNP might well support a GE, the Tory rebels will probably support it. Everyone knows a GE is needed.

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 22:53

"A vonc only needs a simple majority to pass, BJ does have the numbers"

No he doesn't
He's lost all 4 votes he's had - a record for any PM !
(they normally win hundreds or thousands of votes before their first loss)

chomalungma · 06/09/2019 22:56

BJ does have the numbers

Does he? He already has a minority Government. He got rid of 21 of his MPs.

The rebel alliance want No Deal not to happen. There are enough votes in Parliament to ensure that - and a General Election will take place once that has been assured.

MeganBacon · 06/09/2019 22:57

He will be in opposition, with the rebels who will be unlikely to support jc in a vonc. I don't know exactly how many it is now but say 317 (incl. rebels) and he'd need 326 to win it - with a few DUPs and surely the LibDems would love an election? I'm pretty sure he'd get it and it will be the strategy.

ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 06/09/2019 22:57

BCF
You are applying normal patterns to an abnormal situation

Other parties that might want a GE sooner would support a VONC. They won’t want Corbyn sitting in place trying to control the timing of the GE any more than they want BJ controlling it.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 06/09/2019 22:58

They really are rattled arent they, cmon guys you won get over it

Sorry I just had to Grin Grin

chomalungma · 06/09/2019 22:58

with a few DUPs and surely the LibDems would love an election

People want No Deal off the table first.

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 06/09/2019 22:59

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

chomalungma · 06/09/2019 23:00

They won’t want Corbyn sitting in place trying to control the timing of the GE any more than they want BJ controlling it

Once No Deal is safely off, then Corbyn will have no control over the timing of an election.

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 23:00

The Rebel Alliance would go for extension, then definitely GE, but obviously within the extension

Probably the GE date will be chosen so that Parliament is dissolved almost immediately after getting the extension

It would require a real falling out & muddle to get part of the RA voting against the PM they had chosen to do all this.

The SNP especially have to be very careful about being seen to help the Tories in any way:
they've only recently shaken their "Tartan Tory" image after bringing down a Labour govt in 1979, to let in Thatcher and 18 years of Toryism

chomalungma · 06/09/2019 23:02

So..will we still get proroguation?

I feel for the Queen if she has to give a pointless Queen's Speech.

MeganBacon · 06/09/2019 23:02

He will resign in time for JC to have to ask for the extension. I don't think no deal can be permanently off the table unless there is revoke or WA passed. So once extension is in place, the LibDems have no further purpose for JC and will want to show how well they can do in a GE.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 06/09/2019 23:03

And at least purdah will apply as well which we were already informed that wasnt going to be the case with Johnson

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 23:03

There would only be a VoNC if Corbyn tried to do anything that hadn't been agreed with the Rebel Alliance

Even he shouldn't be that dim

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