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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 20:52

The problem with a PV was that there's never been a set united view on what the question should even be.

I think that was the point of the Kyle amendment. It absolutely cleared up the question. the W.A was already passed so it was 'do you want this or shall we stay?' I really think the Kyle amendment is the perfect compromise for the rebel alliance. It passes the deal for the leavers and doesn't piss off the remainers. Whereas signing the W.A isn't compromise - it's one side giving in completely.

Many decent people will push back though.
I'm sure they did in North Korea. I'm sure they did in every single place a totalitarian government has ever taken over. That doesn't always stop it. We've been pushing back for three years - we've been ignored. and weren't in a totalitarian state then.

TheElementsSong · 05/09/2019 20:54

will trickle into the minds of the majority of the electorate

Exactly my fear too.

chomalungma · 05/09/2019 20:54

He is winning and no one is even noticing

Where are the pro - Boris protests? Look what happened at the weekend? Ordinary people - not 'Momentum fascists' took to the streets. There is going to be a massive march in London in a few weeks time.

He hasn't gone full Trump yet - and done a rally.

I am surprised to not being seeing angry pro-Boris supporters taking to the streets.

Grinchly · 05/09/2019 21:02

Red - there was a really interesting piece on the world service today about Trump and lying. A psychoanalyst was brought on to discuss it:

Points being, that :

Trump probably actually believes what he is saying is true, because he wants it to be
Provoking angry and indeed extreme reaction is part of the strategy and serves only to amplify the message
And
Thé frisson we all get when we can point out the lies, the propaganda and the rambling incompetent delivery ALSO serve to hook opponents in to a deadly dance.

Which apart possibly from the first point, is exactly what Red has been saying all along about the Britain Trump.

ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 05/09/2019 21:02

I think it has helped the WA approach that the No Dealers are now in the spotlight. Their behaviour in proroguing Parliament, marching out aides, lolling on benches, withdrawing the whip etc. has shown them to be utterly disrespectful of people’s genuine concerns.
I am centre right in my views normally and I wish John Major was standing after the CBI speech.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 21:05

Pretzels What you posted sounds like Remain or Bust:
I choose to avoid Bust if there is a chance

Would you oppose passing the WA on say 30 October, when all hope of otherwise avoiding No Deal has gone ?
(Just a qn on the principle: I appreciate Parliament will probably be dissolved before then for a GE)

No Deal would definitely be a disaster

The WA could be OK and does restrict the Govt from doing certain things
Negotiations would take years and time for opinion to come around to a Norway++ type deal

EU officials also said that during the transition period they would allow the UK to do a Fast Track Rejoin if it wished
Not with No Deal

I just prefer the probability / chance of something better, rather than the total certainty of No Deal disaster

SwedishEdith · 05/09/2019 21:05

What is a "Boris Deal"? Confused At least May Deal isn't being referred to as Soft Brexit.

YouGov
@YouGov
Here's what the country's Brexit preferences look like when you ask people to choose from only the outcomes they think can still realistically happen:
No Deal - 21%
Boris Deal - 19%
Remain - 19%
Soft Brexit - 12%
2nd Ref - 10%
Delay - 5%
May Deal - 2%
yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/09/05/what-do-public-think-can-still-realistically-happe?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=realistic_Brexit

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 21:05

Where are the pro - Boris protests? Look what happened at the weekend? Ordinary people - not 'Momentum fascists' took to the streets. There is going to be a massive march in London in a few weeks time

'Ordinary people' in heavily remain and / or Metropolitan areas.

A self selecting bunch in certain areas. Which is very reflective of the original distribution of leave/remain. Votes

It only means so much.

If those same protests were being replicated in rust belt towns you'd have my interest. But they aren't.

Why would you protest if you were pro-Johnson? I'm a little confused on that.

OP posts:
ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 05/09/2019 21:09

Grinchly
I had a similar view about Tony Blair. When people were saying he lied I disagreed; my view was he implicitly believed what he was saying was true or ought to be true even if most people wouldn’t have come to the same conclusion.

I think it’s an issue with politicians of all hues that seek election on the basis of personality rather than policy (Trump, BJ, Blair)

chomalungma · 05/09/2019 21:09

A Boris deal?

Peregrina · 05/09/2019 21:10

Trump's been getting away with similar.

The US is considerably larger and self sufficient in food. Trump was directly elected. Perhaps I am just whistling in the dark here.

What Labour really need to hammer home, is how No Deal will destroy the NHS.

chomalungma · 05/09/2019 21:11

Why would you protest if you were pro-Johnson? I'm a little confused on that

Parliament has worked against him.
They are stopping him from negotiating with the EU.
They are going to cost us £1 billion a month.

Where are the street protests?

TheCaddyisaBaddie · 05/09/2019 21:13

Boris deal = unicorn shit. It's the one Boris is about to make with the EU, the one he is negotiating right now, the one that the EU is giving us everything we want - ie being in control of the EU without paying a penny

chomalungma · 05/09/2019 21:14

What Labour really need to hammer home, is how No Deal will destroy the NHS

And the care system...who will look after your relatives?
Education...
Effect on local GP services
Drugs for your children

Don't do Project Fear - but get people concerned. Those people who know what it's like to worry about education, to worry about their parents in care, their ill children.

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 21:15

Would you oppose passing the WA on say 30 October,

Fortunately I'm not in parliament so I don't have to make that decision. i would hate to be in that position and I have great sympathy faced with all the MPs who genuinely don't believe in brexit or have faith in the W.A staring down the barrel and making that Hobson's choice. I will not celebrate if the W.A is the decision they make - though I will understand if they do. But it will also be the end of their careers - and that is right, as well.

I'm certainly not going to make it easier for them and tell them I'm OK with them doing it - because I'm not. I'm being robbed of my birthright and all the privileges that go along with that and I will never tell anyone it is OK for them to sign up to doing that. If I tell them it's OK to take these rights then why not more? Where do I draw the line in order to 'stay safe' or 'prevent disaster'?

What would I do if I were them? i don't know. But not having any power I have the luxury to say 'NOT IN MY NAME'. It's pretty much all I have and I'm not giving it up to be 'safe'. Because I don;t believe it;ls not the first step to a very dark place. And if it isn't - I'm still not OK with having my rights and citizenship removed against my will. No one should be.

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 21:15

Red I think the whole point about the protests is that a lot weren't in heavily pro-Remain areas.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 21:17

red I may be overly pessimistic, but however Brexit is resolved,
we are going to have a long hard climb back to "normal" politics away from authoritarianism

The wrong set of Tory MPs were purged !
They left all the bastards

No Deal in particular threatens national humiliation / resentment which will further boost the far right
not just because of economic collapse and possible shortages, but

because people keep thinking it is a Reset button and ignoring this point:

The WA is the EU's requirement's for an exit deal and preconditions for a future trade deal

  • these won't change

We either accept the terms when we get all the benefits of transitions, or accept the terms after months of broke humiliation and without transition

(transition is not legally possible with an agreement after Brexit)

The PD is not legally binding and never could be made so, because we cannot bind the result of future negotiations

Outsomnia · 05/09/2019 21:19

FPTP has led us to this pass.

Changing that will be the making of the UK going forward. It needs a real push now AFAIS.

But Turkeys obviously do not vote for Christmas. So it will never change I suppose.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 21:19

and no, we really can't cope on only WTO terms with our regional trade bloc and economic superpower

Peregrina · 05/09/2019 21:20

'Ordinary people' in heavily remain and / or Metropolitan areas.

I am not sure about that Red - look at the map of where protests have been happening. This is the list for tomorrow:
Peterborough Cathedral Sq
Swindon, Canal Walk
London, Downing Street
Parliament Square, Best4Britain event
Exeter Princesshay
Bournemouth Square 7th September
Hitchin, Bancroft Park 7th September
Kendal New Road 7th Sept
Berlin, Pariser Platz
Chester, Bridge St
Romsey, Palmerston Statue
Winchester Buttercross
Eglise Notre Dame de Bergerac
Ely, The Library Auditorium
Manchester, Albert Sq
Horsham, outside Costa Coffee
Norwich City Hall
Reading, Broad St
Stratford, The Recreation Ground
Exeter Princesshay
London, Parliament Square
Birmingham, Victoria Square
Ringwood Gateway
Swansea, Castle Square
Tunbridge Wells, The Forum
Abergavenny, Butter Market
The Hague Central Station
Marlborough, High St
Taunton Market House
Lancaster Town Hall
Nottingham Brian Clough Statue
Bristol, College Green
Newcastle, Grey's Monument
Harpenden, High St
Harpenden, Public Halls
Sheffield, Barkers Pool
Newport IoW, St Thomas' Sq
Leeds Art Gallery
Cheltenham, The Promenade

Quite a lot of smallish towns there in Leave areas.

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 21:21

If those same protests were being replicated in rust belt towns you'd have my interest. But they aren't.

Wakefield must have voted to leave - only Leeds and Harrogate didn't in the whole of West Yorkshire. There were anti-boris protestors out today.

ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 05/09/2019 21:21

chomalungma

Fascinating though the machinations in parliament have been (I am addicted) I suspect many people will just see it as more MPs pratting around in the Westminster bubble.

Proroguing parliament, the no No Deal vote, withdrawing the whip will seem utterly irrelevant to many people. It’s Westminster shenanigans rather than something that feels relevant and tangible in their everyday lives. People on this thread are knowledgeable and interested in the process of politics and the constitution; others may be seeking politicians engaging in what seems to be the usual annoying yahboo game playing.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 21:22

www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/sinn-fein-open-to-westminster-electoral-pact-with-other-proremain-parties-to-challenge-the-dup-says-oneill-38468538.html

belfasttelegraph.co.uk
Sinn Fein open to Westminster electoral pact with other pro-Remain parties to challenge the DUP, says O'Neill - BelfastTelegraph.co.uk
3 minutes

Sinn Fein has signalled a willingness to co-operate with other pro-Remain parties to challenge DUP Brexiteer candidates if a general election is called.

Party vice-president Michelle O'Neill did not rule out electoral pacts with other "progressive" parties to maximise the chances of taking seats in Northern Ireland.

She last night insisted there is no bad blood between her and the Stormont colleague vying for her job.

Mrs O'Neill also made clear Sinn Fein would not be reconsidering its Westminster abstentionist policy ahead of any snap poll.

She was at Stormont yesterday to chair an election planning meeting with party colleagues.

On the prospect of working with other pro-Remain parties during an election campaign, Mrs O'Neill said: "Of course we have to be open to working with other parties, as we have done throughout the course of the last two-and-a-half years. We have been able to work with the other progressive, pro-Remain parties in making sure that our voice is heard very strongly in that we want to protect the Good Friday Agreement, that we voted to remain and there is nothing good to come from Brexit."

Asked whether the party would be prepared to stand aside in certain constituencies to give another pro-Remain candidate a better chance of taking a seat from the DUP, she replied: "The party will clearly have to discuss all of those things, but what I have said is we have clearly stood on a progressive agenda of working with other parties, where we can send out a very clear message that we say no to Brexit, that we want to protect the Good Friday Agreement and that people here voted to remain - that will guide us through the conversations and discussions that may occur."

Mrs O'Neill said she and former Stormont Education Minister John O'Dowd, who is to challenge her for the deputy leader's position, were "comrades" and would remain so whatever the outcome of the contest for the senior leadership role.

It was an unexpected development in a party known for its internal discipline and desire for a unified approach to leadership transitions.

"I am more than happy for John to put his name forward," Mrs O'Neill said. "I have spoken to him about it. We are comrades, we will be comrades through the election campaign and afterwards."

Belfast Telegraph

pumkinspicetime · 05/09/2019 21:22

I'm still not OK with having my rights and citizenship removed against my will. No one should be.

This is where I am, I am being stripped of my citizenship without my consent.

If I were an MP I might vote for the WA but as a Scot I might think that a hard Brexit was better for my country in the long run. I wouldn't blame any MP for making either decision.

borntobequiet · 05/09/2019 21:26

Trump does believe in what he says, insofar as he can believe anything. Johnson does not, all is calculated. That’s Trump’s strength, and Johnson’s weakness. BJ has learned - so much! - from Trump, but he can’t manage the unwavering, blind, thoughtless reactivity that is the Trump modus operandi. Perhaps because he had a different sort of upbringing - who knows? But when my French hôtelière described BJ as a faux Trump, she was right.