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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

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Violetparis · 05/09/2019 21:29

The huge number of protestors just confirm what we already know, that there are a huge number of angry remainers in the country. Farage barely got 100 people on his march earlier this year and was widely mocked, didn't stop his party from getting the highest number of votes in the EU election. I said on this thread earlier today it's what happens in the voting booths that counts.

SwedishEdith · 05/09/2019 21:30

I'm still not OK with having my rights and citizenship removed against my will. No one should be

Me too. Hence why Norway/Single Market is non-negotiable for me.

Wakefield voted Leave. Their MP is Mary Creagh. She didn't even vote to trigger article 50. She kept her seat in 2017 - may even have increased her vote/vote share (need to check).

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 21:33

The SNP know that a GE may well bring about a slim Conservative majority - but outnumbered by other parties.

Last time, May managed to squeak a government with the DUP - the numbers may not be there for that this time.

If the SNP end up in the role of confidence and supply, they will demand a second referendum, which they will win.

They don't need a Hard Brexit for independence.

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 21:33

God help the UK when Scotland leave, though.

chomalungma · 05/09/2019 21:33

didn't stop his party from getting the highest number of votes in the EU election

Turnout was very low though - 38%.

Which says something.

Violetparis · 05/09/2019 21:36

Only 38% turnout, says something about remain supporting parties too.

chomalungma · 05/09/2019 21:37

Only 38% turnout, says something about remain supporting parties too

It says a lot about people's attitude towards the EU elections.

Outsomnia · 05/09/2019 21:38

This totally sucks. How can we object now? Well those of us who understand the reality of NO DEAL and WTO rules?

Will that happen do you think?

WA sounds like a compromise. UK will never be a force of opinion in EU anymore if we stay IMO and I think EU would be glad to get rid of us now.

Peregrina · 05/09/2019 21:38

I thought the Remain parties actually got a slightly higher share of the vote in the EU elections, and it was pretty much a tie on seats when you add LD, Green, PC, SNP and SF together.

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 21:39

Peregrina They did.

SwedishEdith · 05/09/2019 21:40

Mary Creagh

www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14001009

Isn't it funny (??) how Johnson was in Wakefield at same time as JRM was comparing Dr Nicholls (Yellowhammer doctor) to Andrew Wakefield. Hmm

JustAnotherPoster00 · 05/09/2019 21:48

Has any one else seen that Peter Obourne(sp?) piece on the NI border for JOE? Fucking sobering stuff

Also if hypothetically we get to Civil War point (I know I know Grin) Johnson impeached and refusing to go, Brenda having made Mhairi Black and fucking Chukka Umuna as interim co prime ministers, does Boris Cromwell Johnson get to control the army or does Brenda?

I know I know sorry Grin I'll get my coat

Violetparis · 05/09/2019 21:49

There were many discussions about including/excluding the Tory Party and the Labour Party from the Leave/Remain tally at the EU elections. Both sides used whatever suited their view.

Peregrina · 05/09/2019 21:53

I did exclude Labour and Tories when talking about the EU elections, although I think it probably evened out with about 2/3 Labour being pro-remain and 1/3 Tories being pro-remain.

ContinuityError · 05/09/2019 21:54

Mhairi Black and fucking Chukka Umuna as interim co prime ministers

Would we have enough firefighters to cope with the self-combustion of Tory voters?

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 21:54

Brexit is a decision I vehemently disagreed with
BUT
It is legal - nationally and internationally - to Brexit

It's not like removing your right to vote, or freedom of worship etc

No international court would say you have a right to keep EU citizenship,
or FOM, ECJ etc if your country votes to leave the EU
and certainly no court would stop Brexit to prevent this

chomalungma · 05/09/2019 21:55

I did exclude Labour and Tories when talking about the EU elections, although I think it probably evened out with about 2/3 Labour being pro-remain and 1/3 Tories being pro-remain

In all honesty, I think predicting what's going to happen in the next General Election is unpredictable.

I just hope that the turnout is high - especially amongst young people.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 05/09/2019 21:56

Would we have enough firefighters to cope with the self-combustion of Tory voters?

Fair point Grin Grin

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 21:59

If you really want nearly every Tory in the country to self-combust,
then in a (slightly !) more feasible scenario,
you should hope that in the GE the voters delight poster and make Corbyn PM Grin

Peregrina · 05/09/2019 21:59

It's not like removing your right to vote,

Correction - EU citizens resident here can vote in Local Elections. I imagine that unless they happen to be from Malta, Cyprus or Ireland, they will lose this.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 22:00

but think of the effect of all these combustions on climate change Shock

Violetparis · 05/09/2019 22:01

I agree with that chomalungma

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 05/09/2019 22:04

Mhairi Black and fucking Chukka Umuna as interim co prime ministers
Now that would be quite some pairing! I'd like that

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 22:05

I am referring to international human rights, enforceable in court e.g. at the ICJ at the Hague.

There is no international law giving the right for foreign residents to vote

I should have said "remove your right as a resident UK adult citizen - if you are one - to vote"

ContinuityError · 05/09/2019 22:07

BCF

One quick immolation versus decades of hot air emissions.

That’s a price I’m willing to pay.