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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

OP posts:
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TokyoSushi · 05/09/2019 22:46

I know there's quite a difference of opinion about BBC question time here, but that's quite a panel tonight!

QueenOfThorns · 05/09/2019 22:47

Amazing speech from John Major. This particularly struck me:

Once outside Europe, we British will have little or no voice. We are not used to being outside the inner circles of decision-making – and we will hate it.

A million times yes - and there will be no going back. Angry

Belindabelle · 05/09/2019 22:48

That Scotland headline is ridiculous. It’s all about the money (sales) at the end of the day.

PerkingFaintly · 05/09/2019 22:48

I came to placemark... and this is page 36!!!!

Sorry if this has already been said, I can't keep up at all. But I just wanted to remind my Hon. Friends of yet another piece of Parliamentary skulduggery, lest it be tried again.Hmm

A couple of years ago, the Lords had sat late into the evening on something (health & social welfare? I can't remember), finally had the vote and most left the chamber...

...And then a little troop of Tory Lords filed quietly back in and held a vote overturning the previous vote.

Wouldn't want to be caught like that again.

Jason118 · 05/09/2019 22:49

I read with interest the view of current 'optics' and how LittleTrump is playing to his base and I get all that. I don't then follow the logic of having (as a remain/pv supporter) to just fall into agreeing with the WA. Surely post a WA if we end up with a Tory govt, we will just have another 2 years of arguing with the EU? At the end of the period there will be another cliff edge to look forward to. Surely rather than obsessing over what Leavers think/see, people who support remain/pv should focus on the people that didn't have an opinion and help them to form one. I include young people voting for the first time whose lives will be more impacted than an old fuddy duddy like me.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 05/09/2019 22:49

Oh ffs Tokyo why? I went and put it on didnt I and I'm already shouting 'fuck off' at the TV

Belindabelle · 05/09/2019 22:50

Just had the dis pleasure of ‘meeting’ Richard Tice on Question Time.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 05/09/2019 22:51

Oh and can I also read on twitter earlier today someone called Johnson a 'thatched turd' I wish I could remember who Grin

TokyoSushi · 05/09/2019 22:53

Sorry! ⬆️

JustAnotherPoster00 · 05/09/2019 22:58

Im going to have an embolism or a heart attack, dear god

LyraParry · 05/09/2019 23:00

Why do people keep saying that the role of the Opposition is to push for a general election? I mean, I know they normally do, but that isn't their main function is it? The role of the Opposition must be to, well, oppose the government. To hold them to account and as individuals to represent their constituents. And, above all else, to act in the national interest.

Calling for a GE should surely only happen when the Opposition believe it is necessary in order to do one of these things.

Belindabelle · 05/09/2019 23:01

I am on the gin. Supposed to be on the waggon for September but these are strange times and the QT panel have driven me to drink.

DeRigueurMortis · 05/09/2019 23:02

I've forgone the Gin for Winewhilst watching QT Grin

JustAnotherPoster00 · 05/09/2019 23:03

How much do the Tory Party pay for Fiona Bruce and the audience?

JasperRising · 05/09/2019 23:06

For a moment, I thought that DGRossetti posting about Sinn Fein a few pages was going to be them saying they were going to take up their seats in Westminster. I mean, obviously they can't, but it says something about how ridiculouspolitics has got at the moment that it crossed my mind that it would just be one final mad twist for the day...

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 23:08

Jason If there is no trade deal by the end of WA transition, then the backstop kicks in

Reality Check:

No Deal will very probably happen unless the WA does first.

It doesn't matter how many people outside the HoC get converted to Remain, if BJ just runs down the clock to No Deal

If there is a GE before 31 October, we are very unlikely to convert significantly more voters to Remain than in the previous 3 years since the ref

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 23:11

I was amazed that Sinn Féin would form an electoral alliance with other Remain parties Shock

That is significant cross-party cooperation

Shame about the Party of No and its fellow Unionists

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 23:14

Lyra
I'm sorry, I've been away from this thread for ages, don't know you, so can't quite 'get' what you mean.

I think the Opposition plan to have a GE - but only after an extension has been sought and legislated for.

There's no point in giving Johnson his VoNC before it's legislated - he can't be trusted.

So, yes, it's the Opposition's job, really, to seek an election on terrain that is most clement.

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 05/09/2019 23:21

lyra I agree, it's obviously something they should seek but it's not their sole function. Scrutiny is one of their main ones. They've lacked previously in that which has contributed to this entire mess.

AnxietyDream · 05/09/2019 23:23

I have to say I think Icantreachthepretzels is largely right. Looking at it on the long-term the differences between no deal and WA with the hard right at the helm aren't going to be huge. Getting the WA over the line will not suddenly make everything 'safe' or 'ok'. We're utterly fucked either way.

I also think many on this forum overestimate how acceptable the WA will be as a form of Brexit to many people. It might have been after the referendum, but now those in favour of Brexit have been convinced that what they really wanted was no deal and WTO rules all along. After a WA they will still want a more brexitty brexit. In fact I'm starting to fear that nothing short of actually declaring war on Europe will be enough for some.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 05/09/2019 23:26

I've had to switch it off I had to OMG, Ive had to put my best of spitting image on just so I dont start rocking

LyraParry · 05/09/2019 23:41

thecatfromjapan, I was watching newsnight and the host asked a labour politician why they won't vote for a GE when their job as opposition is to call for a GE. I've heard the same thing a from a few different journalists / conservatives over the last day or so. But I really don't agree that "calling for a general election" is the primary purpose of the opposition.

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 23:42

Yes, Lyra, I agree with you. 🙂

RedToothBrush · 06/09/2019 00:27

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Excl: At least 12 sacked Tory rebels looking at standing as independents in a general election, a fresh blow to Boris Johnson’s bid for a majority

Steve Brine has received “more than 1,000 supportive emails” from constituents in Winchester, many urging him to run as an independent. Dominic Grieve: “Having participated fully in this debate, I want to see it resolved. I would carefully consider standing as an independent”.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/9873150/tory-rebels-independents-general-election/amp?__twitter_impression=true
At least 12 sacked rebel Tory MPs are preparing to run as independents in the next General Election

The dozen are:
David Gauke,
Philip Hammond,
Alistair Burt,
Caroline Nokes,
Steve Brine,
Antoinette Sandbach,
Rory Stewart,
Stephen Hammond

Ed Vaizey,
Margot James,
Sam Gyimah
Dominic Grieve

OP posts:
Cwenthryth · 06/09/2019 00:31

Just watched QT on catch up.

Emily Thornberry said that if Labour won a GE (pre-Brexit), that she - personally, it seems - would negotiate a new deal with the EU, and then campaign against the deal she had just negotiated in a second referendum as she thinks we should remain anyway.

My flabber is gasted. Honestly - what a ridiculous position to have! Why would any leave voter support Labour on those terms?

Which leaves no one for non-Tory leavers to support - this is where the Brexit party could swoop, I guess.

Now watching Newsnight on catch up as well. Andrea Jenkyns is being wholly objectionable as well (just called John Major a hypocrite).

It’s going to be really difficult to vote for any of them. It’s like they’re all competing to be the least electable.