Does anyone here actively WANT no deal?

[justintimberlakesfishwife]

And if so why, and how do you expect it to play out if that's the outcome?

The wording of A50 could even be interpreted to mean that they were expected to be conducted in parallel.

And equally, not. It refers to discussions, not deals. Discussions about the future relationship did take place in parallel.

Working on deals without clarifying the issues in the WA would result in a ridiculous number of if.....then.....else options

Article 50 describes the procedure of leaving the EU, not details of what the WA, PD and future relationships should be as every case could be different depending on which member leaves. Article 50, as passed in EU law and signed by all members, has to operated in accordance with the signed version in 2009 as opposed to briefing notes prepared by the EU many years later.

Unilateral changes to the agreed procedures after the referendum took place is bad faith by EU.

There is a huge difference between the conditions of the Vienna convention and a party to an international peace treaty deliberately breaking it

GFA does not prevent either Ireland or the UK from leaving the EU. A no deal is not illegal under EU law and GFA does not form part of EU law.

GFA lapses instantly under no deal as not possible for NI to comply EU policies that have lapsed due to no deal. Nobody has to follow the rules of the club they have left.

Even if GFA did not lapse immediately, that NI can no longer follow rules that don’t apply anymore is sufficient under the Vienna convention to make the GFA void

What do I think will happen

• Food shortages. Malnutrition as a result of food poverty. Possible imposition of rationing.
• Medicine shortages resulting in premature, avoidable deaths. Increase in hospital admissions due to these shortages.
• Increasing deaths in hospital due to acute staffing shortages and underfunding.
• Increased unemployment due to international businesses relocating and UK business going bust - customer poverty, shortages of materials, tariffs making trading within the EU less possible.
• Racial violence as more impoverished people seek to blame others for the failure of Brexit.
• Increased austerity. More schools closing on Friday afternoons. Less support through social services.
• Possible imposition of martial law.

Mamamia- for someone who's so pedantic about learn/teach I'm surprised you can put up with a misspelled username!

I think anyone who wants to just get on with it is either deluded or actively loves the idea of making people suffer.

Unilateral changes to the agreed procedures after the referendum took place is bad faith by EU.

The EU is not contravening A50. There is nothing that requires deals to be agreed. In order to agree a deal, the foundations need to be agreed. The WA and the PD are those foundations. Discussions regarding the future relationship, as per A50, have taken place. That is very different to agreeing a deal.

Even if GFA did not lapse immediately, that NI can no longer follow rules that don’t apply anymore is sufficient under the Vienna convention to make the GFA void

There is absolutely nothing stopping NI from following EU rules post brexit. Leaving without a deal that doesn't protect the GFA is wilfully breaking the GFA.

There is nothing that requires deals to be agreed

Contradicts;

Leaving without a deal that doesn't protect the GFA is wilfully breaking the GFA

There is nothing that requires deals to be agreed should have read ^There is nothing in A50 that requires deals to be agreed concurrently with WA*, which, given the point I was responding to, I would have thought was pretty obvious when read in context.

Leaving without a deal that doesn't protect the GFA is wilfully breaking the GFA

And I stand by that.

Yes Italy/Greece could leave by defaulting but this mean Germany (mostly) would bear the brunt of those debts, so it is unlikely to be allowed (hence Draghi's reassurance at the time that they would do "whatever it takes" to safeguard the single currency and Uschi von der Leyen's admission that they broke all the rules to do so). But, in the event it did happen, Germany would have to consider how much advantage it has gained so far from the single currency, estimated in a (Hungarian, I think?) article recently at EUR 1.9 trillion. I want to believe there would be no escaping transparency at that point, but I'm sure they'd find a way.

Uk is one of the richest countries in the world and one of the few net contributors to the EU coffers. Even the head of the Bank of England now says leaving without a deal won't be as bad as he first thought.

"Not as bad". Such a ringing endorsement.

@letsdoit2 - Even the head of the Bank of England now says leaving without a deal won't be as bad as he first thought.

You mean where he has revised the drop in GDP from 8% to 5.5% as a result of preparations that have taken place since the original estimate, and not, as you seem to be implying, due to the original estimate being inflated?

However, Carney said the central bank now estimated GDP would decline by about 5.5% – still a sizeable economic shock, but a less damaging one. Joblessness would rapidly increase, taking the unemployment rate to more than twice its current level, at about 7%. Inflation would also more than double to 5.5%.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/04/bank-of-england-revises-impact-of-no-deal-brexit-from-8-to-5-of-gdp

Even the head of the Bank of England now says leaving without a deal won't be as bad as he first thought.

Oh well, bring it on then

Whyamidoingthis-no I wasn't implying anything of the sort. Please don't put words in my mouth which aren't there.
Clearly it is because of the current preparations, as reported in the Guardian and Express newspapers.

@letsdoit2 - Please don't put words in my mouth which aren't there.

I said seem to be implying, not implying. I chose those words deliberately as you made no mention of preparations affecting the revision, you made no mention of the hugely negative impact BoE are still predicting and you did not provide a link to allow the reader to get the full message from BoE.

So no, I do not think it was clear in your post that the revision is dues to preparations. I think what was missing from your post could easily lead to an interpretation that the original estimates were, upon reflection, seen as inflated rather than revised based on changes to the environment in which they were originally made.

whyamidoingthis I'm pleased to hear you didn't think I was implying anything of the sort. Let's leave it at that.

@letsdoit2 - I make no claims to be a mindreader so I can only interpret posts based on my reading of them.

The ongoing uncertainty and politicians playing stupid games is having a far worse impact that a no deal Brexit. The whole fiasco needs bringing to an end soon and if that means No Deal, then bring it on.

I haven’t seen these preparations, though. In my field there’s next to zero information. I went to the gov portal last night and checked what I am supposed to do.
I need to make sure I have a passport with enough validity- done. If I have to renew it earlier, the cost is still on me, so the preparation is at my expense.
I need to have an international driving licence. Done. Again, money I’ve spent. (And really hurts me, because I gave up a EU driving licence for this U.K. one, and now nobody knows if I’ll ever be able to convert it back to EU should I decide to move back to where I belong
I need to remind my Eu employees that they have to apply for settled status. Done. Pity for the 2 that would have pre-settled but they want to move abroad (still working for me, my company is multinational ) and have asked me what would happen if they want to come back. I could not promise we could take them back the day after. I promised we would apply for whatever visa will be required, but as it still doesn’t exist that’s a bit of a jump in the unknown (will it cost 5K of application, just like me visa? Will it take 6 weeks or 6 days?)

@taxguru - The whole fiasco needs bringing to an end soon and if that means No Deal, then bring it on.

No deal (or indeed any deal) will not bring it to an end any time soon. The only outcome that would bring it to an end would be revoke. Any other outcome would require years and years of negotiations to agree deals.

Ah, and I haven’t mentioned that we our brexit preparations included investing more than 500k to open an office in EU which we could have spent much more happily in the uk

Again. Not money that the government spent.
Seriously.

the hugely negative impact BoE are still predicting
Sorry to be pedantic but Carney's letter stresses that this is not a forecast (or prediction) and does not necessarily reflect what is most likely to happen. His job is to ensure that the financial system would cope so he's interested in worst case scenarios. Being apolitical he doesn't prejudge what mitigating actions government would take.

@MeganBacon - Carney's letter stresses that this is not a forecast (or prediction)

It is a prediction (or forecast) of the worst-case scenario. But yes, I should have included the term 'worst-case' in my post. However, I was replying to a post referring to his statement and included a link that makes that clear.

Thanks whyamIdoingthis. I just wanted to be sure anyone skim reading understood that because anxiety levels are so high.

Joblessness would rapidly increase, taking the unemployment rate to more than twice its current level, at about 7%. Inflation would also more than double to 5.5%

Just quite why a nation would wish even 50% of the above on itself is beyond me.... as for "bring it on" there are no words for such foolishness, unless retired on a FS pension?

Interest rates tend to follow inflation, they'll increase too, so should be cheap housing about ..... to be snapped up by the wealthy.

Its a pity the BBC didn't ask the apprentice who stated so confidentially that there would be "disruption for 5 to 10 years but it would be alright after that" if he was happy to lose his job? i can guess the answer!