Does anyone here actively WANT no deal?

[justintimberlakesfishwife]

And if so why, and how do you expect it to play out if that's the outcome?

I just want 'something' to happen. This shite has been going on far too long. The public voted out, so bloody sort it. I don't necessarily like Boris, but at least he's actually stirring to action. Even if that means No Deal

I would like to know how on earth is Boris going to negotiate now ...? It's crazy

Do you mean now that his economic suicide note has been taken away from him?

Yeah, that’ll make a difference.

I expect he’ll continue to barely show up, talk utter drivel when he does and basically get nowhere. You know, as ever.

Can I ask people who are happy with a no deal (WTO) exit how do they think it will impact them directly. I mean on a day to day basis.

I think that goods that come from the EU will be about 20 - 30% more expensive with a mixture of tax and duties at the border. So I will probably no longer be able to afford wine from Europe. New World wine I guess afterwards. Generally I expect the cost of everything to go up. I won't be inclined to visit mainland Europe because it will be a hassle at least for the first few years. I think Scotland will demand a referendum and NI will join Ireland but not for a good few years - 10 maybe. I think immigration will increase from the old commonwealth countries and beyond and wages will be driven down. People will complain about immigration levels.

My question to Mogg is "who exactly benefits?"

Don't think I have 50 years, but children and grandchildren have

The best thing we can do for our children is to ensure the planet is ok and we leave an economy that they can prosper in, long term gambling is dangerous because there are too many variables outside of our control.

Brexit is an investment in the future

A future in which the UK is swamped by the EU, China, Russia and the USA oh and an emerging African continent, where the super powers have the influence and we have none..

Like it or not, the future for small countries is about being in a bloc.

@WhoKnewBeefStew - I just want 'something' to happen. This shite has been going on far too long. The public voted out, so bloody sort it. I don't necessarily like Boris, but at least he's actually stirring to action. Even if that means No Deal

Even if it means your country breaking am international peace treaty they signed?

Reading the comments on telegraph site, listening to leavers conversations on the streets round here etc there's a lot of support for no deal but very little understanding of what it actually means.

Even if it means your country breaking am international peace treaty they signed?

Sounds like some are not bothered and just want out. Looking out for number one is a common characteristic of human nature when there is a crisis.

Like it or not, the future for small countries is about being in a bloc

Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 don’t think so which is why they want another independence referendum.

Hong Kong, Singapore and New Zealand are similar in size and do well.

Like it or not, the future for small countries is about being in a bloc
It's working really well for Italy and Greece isn't it?

It's working really well for Italy and Greece isn't it?

How would they be fixed out of Europe is the question you need to ask.

Greece lied to get in (which says a lot in itself). Most of its problems stem from that.

The price of food and drink in NZ is sky high compared to Europe.

Greece lied to get in (which says a lot in itself)

This is one of the shortcomings of EU Articles. Article 50 allows a member to leave. Article 49 allows a member who has left to reapply for membership. However, there are no provisions to expel a member who has lied their way into the EU

How would they be fixed out of Europe is the question you need to ask
They can't leave now .They are mired in Euro debt. How would they be fixed if they'd never joined? might be a better question.

They can't leave now .They are mired in Euro debt. How would they be fixed if they'd never joined? might be a better question

Both Greece and Italy can leave the EU simply by defaulting on their debts and return to their native currency of Drachma and Lira.

One of the reasons UK wants to leave the EU is that it is tired of carrying weaker economies. There are 28 EU members. 10 pay in and 18 take out

In answer to the OP.
Yes.
Both sides are more likely to negotiate and find solutions once we're out.

Both sides are more likely to negotiate and find solutions once we're out

I agree. A no deal won't last long.

Post any crash out of the EU:
1)Negotiations won't be a level playing field - supply lines already being moved within EU;
2) the EU have said that a version of the WA will need to be signed and debts paid before any discussion about an FTA;
3) US Congress will block any deal with the UK if the UK has breached the GFA - which will it will have done. We will be caught in the run up to the next US election which will delay things further and party lines will be looking to capitalise from votes from Americans of Irish descent.

We will not end up with the magic fairy deal promised by Leavers in the Ref.

The transition while this is sorted out will be messy and unless you've got lots of money, paid off your mortgage and have a whopping pension pot (invested overseas) it will impact you and your family.

I have criticisms of the EU - but I'd never wish this on our country.

@Notonthestairs

1)Too bad. That's the way things have turned out

2. Article 50 does not require a two phase negotiation. Nothing in Article 50 that prevents both the withdrawal agreement and the future relationship between EU and UK being conducted in parallel. Deals could be worded so that they only become effective the day after UK has left the EU on the existing terms. The withdrawal briefing note prepared by the European parliament in February 2016, before the referendum took place, does not record that the negotiations have to be in two phases. However, in January 2017, after the referendum, the EU issued another withdrawal briefing guide that recorded the negotiations were to be two phases. The EU movement of the goalposts after the referendum is bad faith by the EU.

3. In a no deal scenario the GFA becomes void in accordance with the Vienna Convention as it would create an impossible situation for NI in that they would have to comply with EU policies even though all EU laws and treaties between EU and UK have lapsed. Even if GFA does not lapse I can't work out how Ireland's compliance with EU border law represents a breach by UK

UK has 100s of bilateral trade agreements with Canada, Mexico and USA. Exports to US alone are double that to Germany.

An FTA between UK and US is a mixed bag. Many horror stories about chlorinated chicken, colorings and additives in US food products that are currently not allowed in EU. So even if an FTA was made, would people not just ignore such products anyway?

Also if Ireland has lax border control does it not increase the risk to Ireland that US food products easily cross from NI to Ireland? Once in Ireland such products could end up anywhere in the EU. Health issues arising in EU from poor border control by Ireland could result in penalties being applied to Ireland. So is it not in Ireland's best interest for the UK not to have a FTA with the US?

Nothing in Article 50 that prevents both the withdrawal agreement and the future relationship between EU and UK being conducted in parallel.
The EU movement of the goalposts after the referendum is bad faith by the EU.
This was true and the main reason why TM was wrong to invoke A50 when she did. The wording of A50 could even be interpreted to mean that they were expected to be conducted in parallel.

So you agree that a version of WA will be signed and the debt paid?

@MysteryTripAgain - However, in January 2017, after the referendum, the EU issued another withdrawal briefing guide that recorded the negotiations were to be two phases. The EU movement of the goalposts after the referendum is bad faith by the EU.

It's absolutely not bad faith. They are not contravening A50, as you keep implying. Working on deals without clarifying the issues in the WA would result in a ridiculous number of if.....then.....else options.

In a no deal scenario the GFA becomes void in accordance with the Vienna Convention as it would create an impossible situation for NI in that they would have to comply with EU policies even though all EU laws and treaties between EU and UK have lapsed.

There is a huge difference between the conditions of the Vienna convention and a party to an international peace treaty deliberately breaking it.

Even if GFA does not lapse I can't work out how Ireland's compliance with EU border law represents a breach by UK

Yeah, right. I can assume you are being disingenuous here.

I can assume = I can only assume

The wording of A50 could even be interpreted to mean that they were expected to be conducted in parallel

It does as per Article 50 passed in 2009.

Also as per the withdrawal briefing paper prepared by EU in February 2016

UK requested that negotiations on both withdrawal and the future relationship was conducted at the same time, but EU refused as recorded in EU withdrawal briefing paper produced in January 2017

"You have to have some sort of agreement with your neighbours and trading partners"

What's to stop the other EU countries dealing only with each other and just not bothering with the UK anymore?