Westminstenders: The House Is On Fire

[RedToothBrush]

Have we walked into a trap or has the trap shut on the fingers of Johnson?

To early to tell but we have entered an All or Nothing Game.

Johnson seems to have been advised his only way out is a GE - the polls look decent to him. Yet the FTPA means he can not call one without parliaments consent.

He has tried to spook Tory MPs to his will by threatening de-selection. Yet this seemed to have backfired in combination with proroguing and fired up rebels and moderates.

This might still be deliberate though to remove the road block of an internal civil war in the Tory Party. In cleansing moderates though they become the Brexit Party...

... And Spreadsheet Phil has vowed to fight to the last for his party from entryists and non members like Cummings. After first getting support of his local association.

Tonight sees a vote at around 9pm, which is touted as a pseudo no confidence vote.

If this block no deal then tomorrow we face a big day. It looks like there are numbers to do this.

Rebels are looking to seize control of parliamentary time (which might affect prorogation timetable). This is a beefed up version of the previous attempt to do this.

This is around 3pm - 7pm tomorrow.

No 10 has a spad meeting at 7pm, which presumably is about fallout from that vote - and if it goes against government will probably be about trying to force an election.

If he can.

Labour now have leverage though. They can make demands and insist they are in law before agreeing to a GE on Johnson's terms.

Which perhaps makes a GE less likely than the BBC seem to think.

There is talk of trying to force another extension to 31st Jan. I'm not entirely sure how this helps, without a legitimate goal of a deal that goes with it. All it does is push things even more polarised.

And that's my fear. The issue of Brexit isn't going away. No deal, a deal and remaining all leave significant numbers highly dissatisfied. Its hard to see a way out of this without unrest because its been pushed so hard in a polarising way.

If Johnson fails to no deal or to deal on his terms where does this push Farage sympathisers?

We shall see what happens...

... Will the House's independence survive until Nov 5th?

What a pointless waste of 3 years then

When was the original vote taken?

I bet that if they took the indicative votes again, there would be some majorities for some of the last proposals offered.

Sam Coates Sky @samcoatessky
Tory MPs being told it’s one vote at 9.51 and it is a matter of confidence

But closing speeches not started

My slimy MP now talking, no one listening...

Divissssioooon!

Voting process starting now

Shall we all give a figure for Tory "defectors" tonight? I'll go with 29. Bit high, but they've pissed a lot of people off today alone.

Are we just counting the ones who vote against the government, or are we including abstainers too?

Both categories will allegedly have the whip withdrawn. Do you think they’re worried that TM might abstain? I think she’s too loyal to vote against the government, but there was an outside chance she might abstain.

Do you think Johnson would no confidence vote himself?

Only 8?

Well done and thank you to OhYouBadBadKitten and catfromjapan for being in the thick of it tonight in London.

Kitten, I fear a quick summary is beyond me. Suffice to say, Johnson and Rees-Mogg were woefully incompetent.

red Are the Flint-Kinnock Lexiters voting with the Opposition today - to get the chance of their WA amendment tomorrow ?

Why do so many Tory MPs still bang on about the claim that removing the possibility of No Deal will harm our negotiations with the EU. Everyone and his dog knows (and the EU keeps saying) there's nothing coming from the UK side. As Guy Verhofstadt has said, radio silence.

So why do they keep pretending this is still a valid argument? The government isn't even trying to get a deal and obviously doesn't want one.

Oh Mark and Ruth are on.

Quick question: does Labour need a GE?

Because, if Johnson no longer has a working majority with 16 withdrawn from the whip then does he still have the confidence of the house?

Is a Vote of No Confidence required? Or can Corbyn go to the Queen and request the chance to form an alternative Government?

I can't actually recall a Government in my lifetime without most of the MPs.

Mark and Dr Ruth 😍are back!

So the Commons has come alive again now. I wonder how many have been hiding in the Commons Bar up to now. Getting rather lively and loud.

On a Monday night OMG.

I am sick of this shit now.

I doubt there will be enough rebels to secure it. But of course I hope I am wrong.

BBC think 17 rebels. That's 1 more than the Tory Whips.

I'm going for 12 Tory rebels, I think some of them will back out at the last minute.

I also think 4-5 independent/opposition MPs will vote with the government.

Bit annoying that lots of Tories are getting to say the same thing over and over again now- would like to see a non Tory getting to speak.

I think ATM, Boris has a potential majority of 2 based on deselected MPs. If he takes the whip from even 5 Tories, presumably he'll struggle to functionally govern.

About to vote.

Aaarrrrggh that business about the two parties being elected on a Leave platform cropping up again. God that's annoying. What choice was there you fool?

Second vote is the big one. Not this division.

Tuesday night lol. Am on the cocoa.

On a Monday night OMG.

It’s Tuesday, isn’t it? Or am I the one on the wrong day?

Lyra I think about 10pm they’ll vote, but I don’t know what happens after that or how long it goes on for tonight.

Divissssioooon!

That was hilarious!

Finding the live commentary on BBC Parliament channel amusing. Guy sounds the guy that used to read the lottery numbers.

I'll piss myself if she does abstain. It'll be hilarious.