Westminstenders: The House Is On Fire

[RedToothBrush]

Have we walked into a trap or has the trap shut on the fingers of Johnson?

To early to tell but we have entered an All or Nothing Game.

Johnson seems to have been advised his only way out is a GE - the polls look decent to him. Yet the FTPA means he can not call one without parliaments consent.

He has tried to spook Tory MPs to his will by threatening de-selection. Yet this seemed to have backfired in combination with proroguing and fired up rebels and moderates.

This might still be deliberate though to remove the road block of an internal civil war in the Tory Party. In cleansing moderates though they become the Brexit Party...

... And Spreadsheet Phil has vowed to fight to the last for his party from entryists and non members like Cummings. After first getting support of his local association.

Tonight sees a vote at around 9pm, which is touted as a pseudo no confidence vote.

If this block no deal then tomorrow we face a big day. It looks like there are numbers to do this.

Rebels are looking to seize control of parliamentary time (which might affect prorogation timetable). This is a beefed up version of the previous attempt to do this.

This is around 3pm - 7pm tomorrow.

No 10 has a spad meeting at 7pm, which presumably is about fallout from that vote - and if it goes against government will probably be about trying to force an election.

If he can.

Labour now have leverage though. They can make demands and insist they are in law before agreeing to a GE on Johnson's terms.

Which perhaps makes a GE less likely than the BBC seem to think.

There is talk of trying to force another extension to 31st Jan. I'm not entirely sure how this helps, without a legitimate goal of a deal that goes with it. All it does is push things even more polarised.

And that's my fear. The issue of Brexit isn't going away. No deal, a deal and remaining all leave significant numbers highly dissatisfied. Its hard to see a way out of this without unrest because its been pushed so hard in a polarising way.

If Johnson fails to no deal or to deal on his terms where does this push Farage sympathisers?

We shall see what happens...

... Will the House's independence survive until Nov 5th?

Also, and DGR and other fans may have a view on this- Johnson's speaking style reminds me of a malign version of Mr Wilkins from Jennings. On steroids " I I I harrumph! You SILLY little -boy- person'

I wonder what Jacob Rees Mogg would have been called at Lindbury Court ? Of course Boris would be Johnson major ...

Paul Waugh@paulwaugh
^No10 spokesman reveals a letter from Philip Lee announcing his resignation from Tories was delivered to PM's office at 15.31
That is exactly the minute Lee crossed the floor so theatrically.^
@LibDems certainly know how to execute a defection.

ATTENTION TO DETAIL IS IMPORTANT!!!

Jayne McCormack @bbcjaynemcc
Wow. Lady Hermon says PM owes NI an explanation as to why his govt has treated NI in such a "careless manner". She claims govt asked crown solicitor's office in Belfast for advice on whether backstop breaches GFA & urges him to publish it

Boris Johnson replies that in his view, the backstop does breach the GFA - but says he hasn't seen anything relating to that legal advice Lady Hermon mentions

Paul Waugh@paulwaugh
Well that was a first, PM's chief adviser Dominic Cummings hovered at back of a Lobby briefing. He was asked if he was a member of Con Party.

He replied that he was not there as spskman and was just present 'to see how these things work'

No is a difficult word for evil mastermind geniuses.

DG 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

I would have said a fair few have acted actually DGR. Sarah Wollaston joining the Lib Dems and others announcing their intention not to stand at the next GE.

I have quite a bit of sympathy with folks who have been members and actively involved in a party for much of their adult lives and have seen it's leadership and programme change around them.

Ken Clarke, to give the most extreme example has been a Conservative MP and sometimes a Minister under Heath, Thatcher, Major, Hague, Duncan Smith, Howard, Cameron, May and now Boris Johnson.

Not many serve for anything like that long, but plenty have got 15-20 years in (that would get you back as far as Hague) and the ideological swings in that time have been quite dramatic.

Similar is true for Labour if you compare Foot, Kinnock, Blair, Brown, E. Miliband and now Corbyn

Jesus christ...pmk.

Johnson definitely flustered. He's looking older already.

Gossip is Lee has been rubbing up "colleagues" the wrong way ever since he became an MP (or PM in waiting as he reportedly viewed it). His constituency is ultra-safe Brexit Tory country. They deselected him ages ago. It won't be LibDem for long.

Louise I suspect Brexit supporters have little interest in Remain Parliament point scoring off Boris. If anything just strengthens the People vs Parliament narrative which is why I suspect not much backbench support for Boris being orchestrated.

James Vincent @
Bbcjamesvincent
The Treasury has confirmed to @BBCLookNorth today that Jared O'Mara is still an MP.

Spokesperson says he's written to them "postponing" his resignation.

I imagine bojo having a trumpesque hissy fit about now

Gossip is Lee has been rubbing up "colleagues" the wrong way ever since he became an MP

Seems plausible especially with the statement he just gave on BBC news which was rather... Erm... Two fingers up

Going back to the lying to the Court thing...that sends shivers down my spine even considering it, and contemplating the consequences of doing it! You just don't lie to the Court! 😱😱

I'm sad I missed watching this afternoon live; it appears to have been cracking entertainment.

I wonder if the ERG has now worked out that Blowjob isn't who they thought he was and are considering options!

I am totally delighted to hear that Mogg's patronising and insulting words to the Neurologist were the straw that broke Dr Lee's back

I for one am not amazed or fazed by the shenanigans today. We have been down the wire (so we thought) on many other days of high drama in Parliament regarding the Brexit debacle. And still nothing happened.

I suppose this is different because we ARE actually approaching the wire now, and it could go either way.

I have reservations that the vote for no No Deal will succeed, but I sincerely hope it does. Another vote of high drama.

What will happen if it doesn't?

Anyway, with a touch of schadenfreude I saw the Johnson that I always knew would flounder in the absence of full adoration today. Parliament is a different animal to a zip wire.

I don't ever remember him speaking in Parliament before now, but maybe I didn't care back then when he was HS.

For all TM's faults she could speak up for herself at the despatch box in the face of a lot of jeers, shouting and scrutiny. This Johnson fella, not so much.

But anyway what's NEXT tonight! No vote, but a decision on whether to have one or not on no No Deal I think.

Going back to the lying to the Court thing...that sends shivers down my spine even considering it, and contemplating the consequences of doing it! You just don't lie to the Court!

People do every day of the week, and when found out, they are charged and tried accordingly.

There are a few crimes which although it may sound odd, really are as serious as murder. And they are any crime intended to pervert, frustrate, or deny justice, whether it is perjury, witness tampering, or skipping bail. Because they go to the heart of whether people have faith in the justice system, and are willing to live by it.

If we lose, that, it just becomes anarchy, mob justice, no justice, might is right, and a free-for-all. A functioning justice system is a cornerstone of a civilised society.

Or so I think.

I wouldn't have thought the ERG will care about Johnson at the dispatch box. They only care about the one thing they hired him for.

Sky in Mansfield

Will they be doing interviews in kensington too???

Foreign Sec, not HS.

.

I heard the JRM interview on LCB. It was beyond ridiculous. Of course Nick Ferrari was too far up JRMK’s arse to pull him up on his attitude.
James O’Brian made amends when he came on air later.

Im hoping everything thats happening of late is enough to shake up the establishment because we need electoral reform and strengthening of our constitution

I practise civil law, not criminal, so while witnesses might lie to the Court, you shouldn't get a fellow professional doing so! That's where my PoV comes from: as a professional, not layperson. And I'd say that representatives of the government aren't bog standard lay people really!