Westminstenders: The House Is On Fire

[RedToothBrush]

Have we walked into a trap or has the trap shut on the fingers of Johnson?

To early to tell but we have entered an All or Nothing Game.

Johnson seems to have been advised his only way out is a GE - the polls look decent to him. Yet the FTPA means he can not call one without parliaments consent.

He has tried to spook Tory MPs to his will by threatening de-selection. Yet this seemed to have backfired in combination with proroguing and fired up rebels and moderates.

This might still be deliberate though to remove the road block of an internal civil war in the Tory Party. In cleansing moderates though they become the Brexit Party...

... And Spreadsheet Phil has vowed to fight to the last for his party from entryists and non members like Cummings. After first getting support of his local association.

Tonight sees a vote at around 9pm, which is touted as a pseudo no confidence vote.

If this block no deal then tomorrow we face a big day. It looks like there are numbers to do this.

Rebels are looking to seize control of parliamentary time (which might affect prorogation timetable). This is a beefed up version of the previous attempt to do this.

This is around 3pm - 7pm tomorrow.

No 10 has a spad meeting at 7pm, which presumably is about fallout from that vote - and if it goes against government will probably be about trying to force an election.

If he can.

Labour now have leverage though. They can make demands and insist they are in law before agreeing to a GE on Johnson's terms.

Which perhaps makes a GE less likely than the BBC seem to think.

There is talk of trying to force another extension to 31st Jan. I'm not entirely sure how this helps, without a legitimate goal of a deal that goes with it. All it does is push things even more polarised.

And that's my fear. The issue of Brexit isn't going away. No deal, a deal and remaining all leave significant numbers highly dissatisfied. Its hard to see a way out of this without unrest because its been pushed so hard in a polarising way.

If Johnson fails to no deal or to deal on his terms where does this push Farage sympathisers?

We shall see what happens...

... Will the House's independence survive until Nov 5th?

I just can’t listen to Gove.

@JohnJCrace
Boris Johnson is really struggling here. It’s as if his own MPs have just woken up to the fact he’s a bit shit

Hazard see OP, but add that Phillip Lee has defected to the LDs by crossing the floor. This technically means the government have lost their majority but in practice still have the numbers.

The government haven't provided all the information they should have disclosed in the Joanna Cherry Court case which is about stopping prorogation. In what was revealed, it turns out Johnson was showing remarkable contempt for Parliament in his comments. At the time he was saying that it was a Conspiracy theory that he was planning to prorogue Parliament whilst he was actively planning how to. No 10 are trying to blame this all on Cabinet Office civil servant Mark Sedwill who Cummings does not like.

14 Tories are confirmed as rebels, but there may be more yet.

Turnout for Johnson's speech was low amongst government which is surprising.

There are many many noises that moderates are very unhappy.

Cummings went nuts at the rebels with a particular focus on Hammond. Rumour has it there are only 2 or 3 'irreconcilables' (basically they are getting cold feet at chucking all of them out, so expect a fall guy and u turn on getting rid of all of them)

Hammond inferred he's been talking to people in Brussels which has been picked up.

Johnson is ordering his MPs to call tonight's bill the Corbyn Surrender Bill and is trying to make a point of Corbyn actively working with Hammond to discredit Corbyn and present him as part of the 'Liberal elite' working with those who support austerity despite his comments. It's part of the people v parliament optics.

Overall there feels like there is an unravelling happening with Johnson losing control of what's happening. However he still remain PM so has significant power and influence.

It's impossible to tell if the wheels are coming off Johnson or whether he is on top of events and will 'win'.

Of course we all lose either way, but never mind. We don't matter.

agog pmk

Moving towards a gnu? By default.

‏ @JamesCrisp6
EU diplomat gets in touch as Boris Johnson loses majority woth defection of Philip Lee.

"Now he has lost his majority it seems futile to continue discussions. We can’t be sure that whatever were to come out of it will ever translate into reality."

I think I am right in saying that Johnson actually has very little Govt experience, in that the only office he has held was that of Foreign Secretary, where he was a disgrace. It doesn't bode well for his being a PM, and he hasn't got time to grow into the job.

What did Mogg say to the neurologist, @NigellasGuest ?

Tony Connelly @tconnellyrte
Breaking: EU member states have been told by the European Commission Task Force that the UK under Boris Johnson is rengeging on its commitments to protect the all-Ireland economy and meaningful North-South cooperation, as enshinred in the Joint Report of December 2017 1/

An EU source said 2 warnings from the Commission set "alarm bells" ringing: that Johnson was reducing the ambition of the Joint Report (no hard border, protecting North South cooperation + the all island economy) to a pledge to have trade that is "as frictionless as possible" 2/

Secondly the UK is now resisting the ambition of having a “legally operable” solution for border in the event of a renegotiated Withdrawal Agreement, instead pushing for what was described as “aspirational” measures to avoid a hard border. 3/

The warnings came during a 90-minute briefing of diplomats from EU27 member states by a senior figure from the European Commission Task Force 4/

The overall message was that the UK has not brought forward any concrete proposals to replace the backstop. 5/

“The one message that came back very forcefully from the meeting was that there are no concrete proposals,” says one source. “Nothing has been put on the table, not even a proper sketch or hint of a plan. We’re waiting. But for the moment there is zilch.” 6/

Gove says Yellowhammer was a "worst-case scenario"

Fibber

@peregina

Yes you are correct. I think he was the least experienced of all the Tory leadership hopefuls.

What did Mogg say to the neurologist, @NigellasGuest ?

The consultant neurologist who clashed with Jacob Rees-Mogg over contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit has challenged the politician to report him to the General Medical Council.

David Nicholl, who drew up a risk register of epilepsy and neurology drugs for the government’s Operation Yellowhammer plans for no deal, said he was not going to take lessons from a “muppet” who had no medical qualifications.

“If he has got doubts about my probity, I am more than happy to be referred to the GMC,” said Nicholl.

“I am not bothered about Jacob Rees-Mogg. I’m not going to take a single word of health lessons from a muppet like him. What does he know about epilepsy or neuropathic pain?” he added.

“What I am worried about is my patients. To suggest I am wrong in what I say is defamatory. When, as I have done, I look people in the eye and say some of the drugs they are on might be in short supply and who are understandably worried, what he says about me is ridiculous.”

Rees-Mogg accused Nicholl of fearmongering after he challenged the Commons leader on LBC’s Nick Ferrari radio show to say how many people he would accept could die as a result of a no-deal Brexit.

Nicholl said people could die because of potential problems with access to drugs and radioactive isotopes in the event of a no-deal Brexit, a point echoed in a paper published on Friday in the British Medical Journal.

Rees-Mogg said there were “reserve plans to fly drugs in if necessary”. He told Nicholl: “This is a major focus of government policy. I think it’s deeply irresponsible, Dr Nicholl, of you to call in and try to spread fear across the country.

“I think it’s typical of remainer campaigners and you should be quite ashamed, I’m afraid.”

In March, Nicholl raised concerns with the House of Commons health select committee about NHS England’s no-deal Brexit policy, which he believed was “exposing patients with long-term conditions such as epilepsy to an increased level of risk due to limitations in supply of drugs”.

Nicholl asked Rees-Mogg: “Having been involved in writing the plans for mitigation and having whistleblown because I felt they were unsafe, what level of mortality rate are you willing to accept in the light of a no-deal Brexit?”

Rees-Mogg told Nicholl: “I don’t think there’s any reason to suppose that a no-deal Brexit should lead to a mortality rate.

“I think this is the worst excess of ‘project fear’ and I’m surprised that a doctor in your position would be fearmongering in this way on public radio.”

Nicholl told the prominent Brexiter: “Can I remind you I wrote the plans of mitigation?”

Rees-Mogg replied: “Well, you didn’t write very good plans if you hadn’t worked out how to mitigate, had you?

“It’s fortunate they are being written by other people now who are serious about mitigating, rather than remoaners.”

In March Nicholl told the health select committee there were widespread concerns among his colleagues about the supply of anti-epileptic drugs and other medicines for neuropathic pain despite the very “large number of excellent civil servants … working on no-deal contingency plans”.

So the UK is being revealed to the world to be a liar ?

Oh spiffing.

Apparently called him a "remoaner" tobee and accused him of preparing "not very good plans" to mitigate the effects of no deal Brexit since the good Dr claimed there would be an increase in the mortality rate Nigellasguest

Oh The horror!!

Jacob Rees-Mogg

and if you listen to the exchange on youtube or wherever, you can hear JRM's sneery voice. Yuk. He was so patronizing.

Actually that's unfair on Beaker, who's one of my favourite Muppets

Thank you Red .

I'm just like this this afternoon.

I'm pretty horrified that more moderate tories have not crossed over after JRMs outpourings since Bojo became PM.

Imagine how much money he makes every time the £ falls!???

He was asked a question by an mp on whether number 10 staff should have treated the aide the way they did, he flustered badly on that too. It's almost like he didn't realise people don't all love him.

PMK, popcorn alcohol at the ready, have a feeling it might be needed going to be a long night, as always thanks to Red & excellent posters.

14 October is the anniversary of the Battle of Hastings
Also, and DGR and other fans may have a view on this- Johnson's speaking style reminds me of a malign version of Mr Wilkins from Jennings. On steroids " I I I harrumph! You SILLY little -boy- person'

I'm pretty horrified that more moderate tories have not crossed over after JRMs outpourings since Bojo became PM.

We have no idea what's going on in their minds. Nor (as Dr. Lee shows) what might be the final straw. Fair play to him for making a stand, but look at all the shit he let happen before he acted.

Is JRM going to get "the full Cummings" for his car crash of an interview ?

In my head I can hear a Scottish accent saying ... You know what you are ? You're un-fucking-foreseeable. That's what you are ...