Westminstenders: Game On?

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has had prorogation approved by the Queen.

There has been widespread outrage and horror both in the UK and in Europe. Johnson has ripped up the principle of Liberal democracy even if constitutionally what he has done is legal. In shredding convention and the 'gentlemans agreement' of understanding we teeter on the edge of democratic collapse.

Talk is tha Dominic Cummings is persuing a game theory principle of deliberately putting us on collision course with the EU. The idea being that they will blink first because the alternative of what will happen is just too awful for them to allow. The idea is to force others to make the moves whilst Johnson appears principled and strong, even without a proper strategy and plan for a deal.

And there is the rub. Despite all the Talk of no deal, at some point a deal MUST be made, regardless of whether its before or after 31st October. There is no sense of what that could be and how it could be done. And then there's the prospect of a US deal which suffers from the same lack of tangibility.

All there is, is how things look for a General Election. Nothing else.

Johnson is pitching for an election with no sense of what's needed for Brexit - including the legislation needed for no deal. Not to forget that Cummings, strategist that he is, apparently isn't here for the long haul, only being contracted until 31st October, when he goes for surgery he postponed to take on this job.

So what's the plan for Johnson Post Cummings? Or is he going to do even more 'winging it'.

Meanwhile there's an awful lot of moderate Tory MPs getting very nervous and already failing to stick to the Cummings script.

Johnson, until there is an election is going to firmly blow hot and cool, trying to play to the hopes and fears of leavers and remainers to keep them hanging on to hope and the notion that x or y will happen, when x and y can't possibly both happen because they are completely opposing strategies. Hope leads us blindly to stumble like fools into his trap and to win his reelection.

Next week looks very bumpy indeed. Chances are this thread won't make it past Saturday...

@pamper I'm in Kent so am assuming I won't be able to drive dd into the next village for school. I won't be taking her in if turkey twizlers arrive back on the menu as part of the 'lowering of food standards in schools' we've been told to expect either. Around half of the school come from the next town along and people will prioritise work/food runs over attending a half functioning/attended school. I realised this before March and have textbooks in and intend to do what I can at home. I have begun re-stockpiling too. Good to know that x3 500g of Marmite lasted us from Feb. We've also gone through a lot of pasta, cous cous, brown sugar, coffee and tea bags since then so my stores are set to last around 3/4 months.

They were suggesting that the only reason that it was brought in Scotland was that at the time, the High Court was not in session, whereas the Court of Session sits all summer.

I suspect that the reasoning was/is slightly disingenuous

It certainly helps that there are now cases going on in all 3 jurisdictions And John Major has now joined in with Gina Miller's case

Yesterday's by-election for the Shetland seat in the Scottish Parliament resulted in a strong win for the Liberal Democrats, in spite of the SNP pouring huge resources into targetting it.

Lib Dem winner Beatrice Wishart got 48% of the vote.

SNP 32%

An Independent got 11%

All the other candidates lost their deposits

Con + Lab combined were less than 5%. Between them they didn't even have enough votes to save one deposit.

How worried are people about petrol shortages? So many wouldn't be able to get to work / school?

If you can't get to school, how are the teachers going to ?

Not trying to start a bunfight, but it's depressing/worrying/amusing/terrifying how many people can only think in terms of "me;myself and I" these days. It creeps into a lot of discussions and (to be blunt) makes them just so much noise.

Discussions about autonomous cars are a good case in hand ...

Alternatively, if your childminder can't get to you (no petrol) how are you going to get to work. And so on. That's rather been the whole point behind the warnings of disruption. Everything is so interconnected these days, it won't take much to unravel it all.

Maybe we've all been a bit too negative about Brexit.

Here's a glimmer of hope about how it might drive new ways of thinking here, in the UK. After all, progress is progress. Maybe we'll see more of this kind of thinking ? Let's hope so.

Con + Lab combined were less than 5%. Between them they didn't even have enough votes to save one deposit.

Now that is gratifying.

If you can't get to school, how are the teachers going to ?

Worth bearing in mind, too, that teachers tend to live further away from school that the pupils. So even in urban areas where children live within a couple of miles of school and can feasibly walk - their teachers are likely to live much further away.

"How soon could the flights and boats stop?"

I may be too optimistic, but I really don't see this happening at all

Any effects should be only on goods and even then, imports should be mostly OK

• the problem atm seems to be some pharmaceutical firms withdrawing supplies of a few products until they see how the costs pan out with sinking pound etc

Yellowhammer prioritises imports of food, meds, chemicals for water purification, components for nuclear power plants
Except for food, I'd expect the RAF & charter planes to handle any shortage of these and they are actually available for sale
If it comes to that, I'm sure the EU would send planes with those supplies, if it becomes a real emergency.

Exports are the main problem:

• this will only get worse over time and likely cause a balance of payments crisis and a further Sterling plunge

The danger of crying "disaster" re food & meds is - apart from terrifying some folk - the complete loss of credibility if this doesn't happen

So, while I'd certainly recommend stocking up just in case of shortages,
the kind that most people would notice are a possibility, not a probability

Loss of credibility matters because it lets Leavers ignore the massive problems that loss of exports will cause
and that - again for most people - probably won't be noticeable for 6 months or so

With Trump's mad trade wars and global recession looming, the govt and their Brexity supporters will claim that any business bankruptcies or drop in exports to be as a result of these, not Brexit

They will be believed even more readily if Remainers have predicted disaster starting in the first few weeks

Let's see what happens

• the govt may indeed cock up and there are likely to be some "unknown unknowns", but we don't know how much that will be noticeable to ordinary people.

Estimates are that the country is 60 billion quid poorer than it would be if the ref hadn't happened,
BUT almost no Leaver will believe that, or any significant figure, because most people don't feel poorer

No way that no 10 staffer account is real. Was watching (don't follow and amplify it) last night and reading the comments. It's utterly implausible according to watchers. Could be a deliberate disinformation account but those more qualified than me assume not.

DGR - thanks very much but my concern over people not being able to get to work if there are petrol shortages obviously covered teachers.

BCF I agree re the recession timing and think it's another part of the Game Theory for Cummings - maybe the EU will want to make a deal to mitigate the effects of the recession (leavers like to point at Germany here). I can't see it happening as they have more to loose than gain with our global reputation in tatters as well as the threat of dodgy controls on our products post October - before we even think longer term about other countries trying to cherry pick.

I'm going to imagine the worst for dd's school from about end Nov as I suspect prices will be soaring, sterling will have plummeted and there will be confusion somewhere along the lines. I'm trying to see it as a snow month or two, where all of the kids are told that if they can't get in then to stay safe at home but there will be a skeleton staff and changes to the menu. I actually feel that will be optimistic come mid-December.

Steve Barclay MP
@SteveBarclay

The car industry’s ‘just in time’ supply chains rely on fluid cross-Channel trade routes. >1,100 trucks filled with car parts cross seamlessly from EU into UK each day. We need to start talks now on how we make sure this flow continues if we leave without a deal. /4

John Major is joining Gina Miller's legal action against prorogation. Blue on blue bust up.

In the olden Welfare State days, registered teachers used to be called in to cover during times of crisis.

There's no such infrastructure now.

BCF I also wonder at the ships the govt still hasn't resolved (Grayling messed up and left) and have been thinking that the first thing he did which appeared easiest was the commandeer passenger ships for food and meds. If this happens on a larger scale, or with flights, this will have a knock on effect on airports/ports/motorways and general panic if people think they may not be able to leave the country at a time things are collapsing.

You do realise that Shetland had been the safest MSP seat in Scotland Yaralie ? So keeping it, even though the SNP poured resources into it isn't a surprise

This is traditional LibDem territory.

Their majority was halved though.

Blue on blue bust up.

I am not going to shed any tears. But it needs a Leaver to jump ship, and then we will really know that their Civil War is full on.

EU to 'withdraw' current deadline for Brexit and remove no-deal option

www.heraldscotland.com/news/17870548.eu-withdraw-current-deadline-brexit-remove-no-deal-option/?ref=twtrec

I'm imagining that in communities with resources, as ever, there will be some short term solutions to major crises - sharing of food, online/shared home education, bartering of childcare favours etc. That will fray pretty quickly IMO if disruption goes on longer term, and in communities with fewer resources will be harder as those communities have to work in those terms at the best of times and have less meat to cut into, they're already at the bone.

Their majority was halved though.

I also saw that in Westminster the MP has been a Liberal of some sort of persuasion for 135 of the last 150 years. It's not really good for democracy to have such one sided representation. But the Tory and Labour candidates not managing 5% between them, is pretty pathetic.

Re flights and boats, hadn't the EU unilaterally put in temporary arrangements for a period of its choosing during the preparations for a potential No Deal in March.

I presume, in the absence of other statements, that those arrangements - and dates until which they apply - still stand. Just with 6 fewer months validity

I thought A50 was quite clear...this is not an option unless they get an extension which hasn't been requested.

Brown isn't being helpful suggesting this is legally possible IMO.

If this happens on a larger scale, or with flights, this will have a knock on effect on airports/ports/motorways
Slough council has published on this one already.

They demanding that barely functioning, cash starved local authorities to provide infrastructure to keep services going.

Not, going, to, happen.