Westminstenders: Game On?

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has had prorogation approved by the Queen.

There has been widespread outrage and horror both in the UK and in Europe. Johnson has ripped up the principle of Liberal democracy even if constitutionally what he has done is legal. In shredding convention and the 'gentlemans agreement' of understanding we teeter on the edge of democratic collapse.

Talk is tha Dominic Cummings is persuing a game theory principle of deliberately putting us on collision course with the EU. The idea being that they will blink first because the alternative of what will happen is just too awful for them to allow. The idea is to force others to make the moves whilst Johnson appears principled and strong, even without a proper strategy and plan for a deal.

And there is the rub. Despite all the Talk of no deal, at some point a deal MUST be made, regardless of whether its before or after 31st October. There is no sense of what that could be and how it could be done. And then there's the prospect of a US deal which suffers from the same lack of tangibility.

All there is, is how things look for a General Election. Nothing else.

Johnson is pitching for an election with no sense of what's needed for Brexit - including the legislation needed for no deal. Not to forget that Cummings, strategist that he is, apparently isn't here for the long haul, only being contracted until 31st October, when he goes for surgery he postponed to take on this job.

So what's the plan for Johnson Post Cummings? Or is he going to do even more 'winging it'.

Meanwhile there's an awful lot of moderate Tory MPs getting very nervous and already failing to stick to the Cummings script.

Johnson, until there is an election is going to firmly blow hot and cool, trying to play to the hopes and fears of leavers and remainers to keep them hanging on to hope and the notion that x or y will happen, when x and y can't possibly both happen because they are completely opposing strategies. Hope leads us blindly to stumble like fools into his trap and to win his reelection.

Next week looks very bumpy indeed. Chances are this thread won't make it past Saturday...

And I should add that the Leave campaign has offered an alternative culture that those working class voters have embraced whether in Thurrock or Barnsley.

What next, take away passes of Labour MPs and the other Opposition MPs ?

It's probably a circular argument that will centre on parliament having devolved the administration of admission to parliament to "the government" (although somehow I doubt it) but I ask again: by what right does anyone challenge an MP for a security pass ?

I'll contain my optimism, but one of the hallmarks of those that wish ill, is there selectivity in what they know and learn. I have no doubt a lot of people promoting the current breakdown have been dutifully reading their Goebbels and the like. But I wonder if they have been so diligent in their Coke, or Bagehot ? In as much as there are any fundamentals in the UK constitution, one that has been picked over by courts in minute detail is how the House of Commons is constituted in the first place. And the bottom line is that it the rules for it's constitution are set only by itself. As Sinn Fein found out when Bernadette Devlin tried to use the courts to force the HoC to accept her without taking the oath.

So it would be an interesting court case if some goon were to try and stop an MP from entering the HoC as to how valid their authority is ? And whence it came.

All of this was carefully built up before, during and after the civil war. Mainly because it sounds like someone is trying to play the part of Charles I, but hasn't finished the book yet. And I for one and not going to provide any spoiler alerts.

I'm guessing that while there's a lot of frothing over this "news" (which was the whole point) something else will be mooted. Then something else. All that's really missing for the complete cartoon experience is the "bupadop-bupadop-bupadop" sound effect as the scene dissolves into a blur of motion.

All this is just so bizarre and scary, well to me anyway.

There has to be a fightback against the usurpation of democracy and the supremacy of Parliament as a whole.

But it looks like I (and others) have no voice now. It is happening before our very eyes, and realistically what can be done now?

Am I overreacting do you think?

afaik, the HoC would have to vote to take away the privileges of any MP,
except when the MP has broken existing HoC rules and automatically loses privileges

The PM / govt has no authority to do this

In fact, I think MPs may still have to vote to even to allow an MP to be arrested, i.e. to lose their immunity.
after the CPS notify the Speaker that they wish to bring charges

re yet more (UK) claims that the EU is changing its position (unknown apparently to Barnier ):

Peter Foster@pmdfoster

MPs will need to choose. But as they ponder they should consider two things:

1. In Brexit, the substance has always beaten spin. (Hence current deadlock)

1. When U.K. ministers or No10 (Cameron, May & Johnson) pronounce on EU intentions...they’re almost invariably wrong

< same as when the UK media do so - wait until it is in the German media ! >

Feels like we're on the precipice of totalitarianism...

These rumours are of course to discourage rebel Tories, by claiming that an EU climbdown is near,
but only if the rebels don't "weaken the UK's position"

Well if EU capitulates to this shitstorm in UK politics, the EU is over IMV.

Bullies must be challenged, and the current UK Administration is trying that tactic now.

May we live in interesting times is right.

All this is just so bizarre and scary, well to me anyway.

I think, incredible as it may seem, there are some on both sides who are in an odd way - maybe inexplicable to themselves - "enjoying" this.

You can't look back on history as much as I do, and not be aware of the rusty sword society. If you aren't actively fighting someone else, you eventually end up fighting yourselves. Fans of 1984, or Star Trek will know that it's been advanced as a theory that societies can't endure long periods of peace and prosperity without eventually falling victim to chaos. After all, what become of every single empire of past ?

In myth, the Grail Quest of Arthurian legend was intended to counter the fact that having soldiers sitting around not soldiering isn't a great recipe for sustained peace. Something Eisenhower also noted - even as he was promoting "swords into ploughshares" following the direction in Isaiah 2:4.

The frequent invocation about "the war" from Brexteers speaks volumes. They aren't really looking back on one. They want one of their own. Just like the youngest child wants the same toy the eldest had.

It's a shame they didn't want a more equal society, an end to poverty, and heaven on earth instead. But as we know, they don't really have that much of an imagination.

The Opposition - especially Corbyn - must remember it has one master card it can keep until May 2022:
the govt only has a majority of 1 - and that only with the 10 DUPes

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall

The government is too frit to get a new parliament.

The Parliament is too frit to get a new government.

It’s a sorry state of affairs and fundamentally it’s that loop which is keeping us parked in this nightmare.

At the moment we have an executive so unsure of the confidence of the legislature
it isfleeing it at every opportunity and attempting to shut it down

and a legislature seeking to wound the executive to within an inch of its life but not kill it.

It can’t go on.

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall

And as I’ve written many times in recent weeks, MPs cannot be the executive.

Continuing to upend convention to seize control of the Commons and to try and bind govt in a million directions is not especially healthy nor productive.

If you don’t like the govt. Change. The. Govt.

Well if EU capitulates to this shitstorm in UK politics, the EU is over IMV.

That's why it won't.

However, be prepared for (more) pressure to be applied from outside the UK-EU axis (yes, I mean the US).

I wonder if the rabble alliance could get to Paris while they are still allowed their freedom, and set up a government in exile ? Maybe somewhere near Chatelet or Les Halles ?

The Opposition - especially Corbyn - must remember it has one master card it can keep until May 2022: the govt only has a majority of 1 - and that only with the 10 DUPes

That’s one of the stupidest things I’ve ever heard. The only way this Government can survive until 2020, let alone 2022, is with the explicit connivance of the opposition parties, above all Labour. I imagine even the most die-hard Corbyn cultists might waver if his master plan is to keep the Tories in place for another 3 years!

No, the EU won't capitulate over the SM or the Irish border.

That would literally destroy the EU and no loss of UK trade is as bad as thta.

The USA may indeed take the opportunity to join in an attack the EU,
maybe even with tariffs if there is a long standoff after No Deal and the UK economy is crashing
This is because the USA want to destroy the EU as a trading rival, not because of any Special Relationship with the UK.

They want to be able to bully much weaker individual countries in trade negotiations, instead of having to deal with a powerful trade bloc as an equal

That’s one of the stupidest things I’ve ever heard. The only way this Government can survive until 2020, let alone 2022, is with the explicit connivance of the opposition parties, above all Labour. I imagine even the most die-hard Corbyn cultists might waver if his master plan is to keep the Tories in place for another 3 years!

But wargaming it suggests an election now might deliver a tory majority for 5 years ? Whereas Labour (under whoever) denying Boris the General election he seems to crave would force him to have his election after the shitstorm of a no deal Brexit ????

Not saying it's right, or even what's being contemplated. But it is a fact.

Boris can only do what Boris can do. He can't do what he can't One thing he can't do, is force the leader of the opposition (and my use of the title rather than the name is deliberate ....) to do what he says. In fact it's one of few weapons in the oppositions gift (at the moment).

It's possible (no idea how probable) that Labour finds a way to have a different leader before they decide to embark upon an election ? Which would (ideally) wrong foot the papers who must have boilerplate stories with "Corbyn" in the title, and require them to put all that hard work into demonising the next incumbent. It would also remove the "Corbyn shit-stick" Boris is currently able to wave at his more credulous Tory cohorts.

Cendrillon The stupidest thing is for Labour to allow a GE that would almost certainly give the Tories a working majority for 5 years
and hence give them absolute power to sell off the NHS, roll back workers rights and environmental law etc

Give the Tories enough time to sink into the No Deal quagmire and the public will eventually turn against them.
Then it is the time to push for a GE

In the meantime, that 1-vote majority means the Tories can't call a GE without Labour permission
and they also can't sell off the NHS etc to the USA, because Tory rebels would vote with Labouf to block it

Leaver on fb has had a discussion underneath his "Go Boris" post with another remainer who has clearly had enough of his goading posts. Leaver friend had the cheek to say "if Leave had lost they wouldn't be acting like this" which prompted a wise reply about how we wouldn't then have lost 6.6bn per quarter on economic activity, had crash in the sterling, mass brain drain and many facing redundancy as well as max exodus of business . I think people are beginning to challenge others on SM more than they were doing just a few weeks ago.

Many Labour MPs in seats vulnerable to Tories - or to LDems, SNP, Plaid - would be very afraid of a GE

LDems and SNP would probably love a GE; because they are very likely to win seats
However, overall, Tories would likely win a November GE

Speaking of Labour ... I'm sure I had this idea a while back, but an alternative strategy - high risk, but the stakes surely warrant it now ? - might be to change tack, capitulate to the Tory no-dealers and let it happen, and then have a manifesto platform for the election that would follow, based on what we know people want ? Making the NHS the key. After all, it was a Labour government that created the NHS, and (to be honest) I never understood why anyone ever felt the Tories would care about it from 1948 onwards ?

Or maybe I'm not thinking straight anymore ?

If Leave had lost, they would have behaved differently ?

Farage said before the ref that if Remain won narrowly

"In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way"

However, overall, Tories would likely win a November GE

many a slip twixt cup and lip ...

If we want dirty tricks, then how about Remain crowdfunding a shit load of people to stand under various Brexity-sounding party names to confuse the matter and draw votes away from BXP where they stand ? We could knock up some pretty extreme Brexity sounding material, and claim we're standing for the real "real" Brexit ? For a few lost deposits and fewer Tory MPs, it would be well worth it.

(Not sure my English half would have thought of that on it's own ...)

Maybe time to buy and register "The Brexit Brexit Party" for use on voting slips and websites
Or "The Real Brexit Party"

Or "The Complete Brexit Party"

or

"The Brexit Party of Birmingham"

and so on.

DG No Deal is by far the most likely outcome.

If No Deal cannot be stopped - and if MPs can't agree on an alternative PM -
then we have to gameplan post-No Deal scenarios

The worst case is a hard right Tory govt with a working majority and new 5-year mandate

• possibly even in coalition with Farage after a GE pact

They could roll back the welfare state and workers rights, make the country unrecognisable
The NHS once destroyed could never be recreated with todays costs and commitments

The govt could also flood the UK food market with lower standard US produce, tie the UK to US deals with punative penalty clauses,
so that an Article 49 to rejoin the EU, even if a large majority then wanted it, would be very difficult

The best case is a Tory govt that can't pass any of these bills
i.e. the current HoC where they only have a 1-vote majority, which would be no majority at all for most of the above

DGR it's what the other side have been doing for years, so I don't know why people on remain side haven't done the same. Possibly a misguided adherence to "truth", which frankly we are beyond now.

I do keep wondering if JC chocked on his aubergine what would happen. Starmer comes across well but I am sure there are press stories about his past in the wings. I just don't know if they could do a U-turn before a Nov GE on someone new and have the same fear factor they do currently about JC for many leavers...

DG Seriously, those ideas won't work
If nothing else, the Electoral Commission would stop them - and rightly

Online psyops are legal, or at least unstoppable in practice , but I don't see a road to victory there either.

The best chance to beat the Tories is a GE after Corbyn has stepped down