Westminstenders: Game On?

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has had prorogation approved by the Queen.

There has been widespread outrage and horror both in the UK and in Europe. Johnson has ripped up the principle of Liberal democracy even if constitutionally what he has done is legal. In shredding convention and the 'gentlemans agreement' of understanding we teeter on the edge of democratic collapse.

Talk is tha Dominic Cummings is persuing a game theory principle of deliberately putting us on collision course with the EU. The idea being that they will blink first because the alternative of what will happen is just too awful for them to allow. The idea is to force others to make the moves whilst Johnson appears principled and strong, even without a proper strategy and plan for a deal.

And there is the rub. Despite all the Talk of no deal, at some point a deal MUST be made, regardless of whether its before or after 31st October. There is no sense of what that could be and how it could be done. And then there's the prospect of a US deal which suffers from the same lack of tangibility.

All there is, is how things look for a General Election. Nothing else.

Johnson is pitching for an election with no sense of what's needed for Brexit - including the legislation needed for no deal. Not to forget that Cummings, strategist that he is, apparently isn't here for the long haul, only being contracted until 31st October, when he goes for surgery he postponed to take on this job.

So what's the plan for Johnson Post Cummings? Or is he going to do even more 'winging it'.

Meanwhile there's an awful lot of moderate Tory MPs getting very nervous and already failing to stick to the Cummings script.

Johnson, until there is an election is going to firmly blow hot and cool, trying to play to the hopes and fears of leavers and remainers to keep them hanging on to hope and the notion that x or y will happen, when x and y can't possibly both happen because they are completely opposing strategies. Hope leads us blindly to stumble like fools into his trap and to win his reelection.

Next week looks very bumpy indeed. Chances are this thread won't make it past Saturday...

No clue tobee I've no idea why that decision was made

Under a prorogation, accountability completely vanishes. The Government could do whatever it wanted.

As the redoubtable Hilary Benn tweeted, if parliament’s doors are closed select committees won’t be able to meet to hold our ministers’ feet to the fire on how they’re spending no-deal billions. Members of parliament won’t be able to submit parliamentary questions about exactly what we’re doing with those billions.

www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2019/aug/30/here-in-no-deal-ops-we-know-vandalism-when-we-see-it-and-this-is-it

Maybe because he couldn't appeal to enough Labour voters?

Labour will find it hard to ever be elected if they don't take on board that they have to appeal to voters not just members. Being a "left" leader is not enough. I think we can (probably?) agree that the Labour Party is already handicapped by a largely hostile press.

Either way he's currently going to be the only leader offering a compromise between the 52 and the 48 all the other parties seek to completely disregard one or the other sections, doing that is not going fix a thing in the long run, that was the problem with the campaign, how was any politician going to persuade those in the North and Midlands, that after decades of industry and manufacturing decline due to Tory governments and global growth, and then Blair who was very westminster centric and didnt do much for the North, and then on top of that more austerity because of bankers greed that they had nothing to do with, to not give the current Tory government a kick in the teeth, I dont think thats been adequately addressed even now except for Labours policies

And as a side note I worry that if Brexit was just cancelled or 1 side was ignored over the other you're likely to end up with an even more authoritative government especially if all these people who think something is within their grasp, no matter how much of a shitshow its going to be, have it taken away from them because of a 'we know better' attitude, your likely to end up with a BXP majority government (I know thats an a stretch lol but you can see the point Im making I hope)

The longer this appalling brexit nonsense drags on, the clearer it should be that there is no possible compromise. It is a binary choice. Even leaving with a so-called "soft brexit deal" would still be leaving and most voters want us to remain in the EU and have done for at least two years.

It seems that leavers idea of compromise is "do what I want"

It seems that leavers idea of compromise is "do what I want"

Tends be a fair bit of the Remain side as well with constantly shifting goal posts

It's not the job of our intelligence services to overturn elections or to "take out" party leaders appointed by due process.

But it is their job to prevent foreign interference in our democracy.

Just seen a Paul Lewis tweet saying the state pensions of UK pensions in EU will only be uprated for 3 years after Brexit and then subject to re-negotiation.
This will lead to a load of people saying "well they voted for leave they deserve it".
As a migrant pensioner I would just like to say that:

1. I don't know anyone who voted leave 2) There is afaik no actual polling data about how we did vote 3) Newspaper /TV reports of Leave voting pensioners inevitably seems to involve a quick trip to a Spanish bar to interview (the same?)three fuckwits 4) Lots of people had already been disenfranchised or did not receive papers in time to vote. Bastards.

Expats living outside UK in EU did not get a vote in the referendum. It was a fancy franchise designed to stop the ERG types moaning about it when they lost.

(Bloody Cameron)

Gus O'Donnell on Radio 4 The World This Weekend www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00083f1

No deal has to be ruled out first (this week) otherwise it hands an incentive to the ERG extremists to vote down a revised WA - or any WA in October to get their real prize which is crashing out - not an exact quote!

In going back to talk to the EU after saying he would not negotiate BJ has deliberately focused on the backstop as it is the aspect of the WA that the EU can't comprise on (as reaffirmed again today by Barnier). BJ knows the EU can't say yes to a hard border on the island of Ireland (and BJ knows the Commons will not agree on it either). BJ Cummings wants a no deal. Pretending to negotiate with the EU appears reasonable and means some Tory MPs wary of voting down their own government might have been persuaded to hold off til after the EU meeting in October (BJ argues ruling out no deal will prevent a revised deal with the EU he knows they wouldn't have anyway. By Mid October it is panic stations. MPs won't vote for the WA - so the only alternative is no deal unless it has already been ruled out
BJ has staked everything on leaving by 31 October.
Everything depends now on whether enough Tory MPs and Kate Hoey will vote with the opposition next week if they can find a way of legislating. Suspending Parliament may be the wake up call they needed to persuade them.

But it is their job to prevent foreign interference in our democracy.

Oh god yes. And to inform the government when this has happened.

What happens when the government of the day believes that it has benefitted from such interference is another problem – look at Trump.

Whether or not Russia interfered with the 2016 US election (and the US intelligence services conclude it did), Trump believes Russia interfered for him. This makes him indebted, blackmailable, and also scared they might help the other guys next time. So Russia gets a win just by Trump believing.

There is currently a report in The Sun that Johnson/Cummings plan to take rebel mps security passes away so they can no longer access the house of commons. Apart from the complete outrage of democracy that is disenfranchising entire constituencies by barring their representatives from attending - the headline is 'swipe the traitors out'. That sounds a like a incitement to violence to me.

Probably a pointless question, but I was thinking during a spell of insomnia last night, why is there not legislation in place to stop disaster capitalists, like JRM, being actively able to work in government to achieve something that will benefit them financially. Isn't it basically insider trading?

Isn't that the whole point of being a Tory MP? To legislate for what benefits the richest in society?

Can they even do that, pretzels?! That's an outrage if so.

@MockersthefeMANist We did get a vote in the referendum. People who had been away more than 15 years did not get one and there were lots of problems with voting papers arriving late. We voted by proxy.

"take away rebels security passes so they can no longer access the HoC" ?

That's surely unconstitutional, as MPs don't need parties; they stay MPs after they quit parties or are sacked - or are in disgrace and awaiting trial

What next, take away passes of Labour MPs and the other Opposition MPs ?

Imo, some of these rumours are just Cummings spreading panic in all directions
Possible trying to scare Remainers into a GE, or to con Corbyn he could win one

@red re the reports of meds or food shortages:

I am seriously wondering if Cummings is the indirect source of such alarming reports,
in order to deliberately cause panic, then claim "Project Fear" when they don't materialise

A few No Deal shortages that would otherwise bring headlines about botched prepping could instead be claimed as a "victory" and "minor teething problems", if they are so much less than the panic rumours beforehand

I was just thinking the same @BigChocFrenzy. Sort of plethora of dead cat panic stories to divert attention from what they are really doing.

There is currently a report in The Sun that Johnson/Cummings plan to take rebel mps security passes away so they can no longer access the house of commons

Only Wednesday I noted the French philosophy (sadly borne of necessity) that wherever the National Assembly meets is the National Assembly.

It would be an interesting legal point about whether MPs need a "security pass" to enter the HoC ? And it would go to the heart of one of the key planks of the UKs democracy - that only parliament can determine it's members. Which has been tested in the courts by Sinn Fein. So "constitutionally" trying to suddenly require a pass is rewriting a rule that only parliament can make.

Of course the image of elected lawmakers being denied access to the debating chamber is so unBritish as to be beyond comprehension. We've all seen it in thrillers set in some dodgy Africaisiamerican "republic", but here ?

I wonder where all the posters criticising me for hysteria a few weeks ago have gone now ?

Does anyone know how to get hold of the list of medicine shortages?

What next, take away passes of Labour MPs and the other Opposition MPs ?

Just find one who's a security risk and the world is your oyster.

Just another poster Are you in the north? I am absolutely in agreement that successive governments have failed to facilitate economic development in the deprived areas outside the main cities, and indeed the rural areas. Nor that those areas voted Leave. However I think the existence of a "northern protest vote" that "swung" the referendum has been wildly exaggerated by the London media. The demographics are not that different between the small town and rural older Tory voters who accounted for the majority of the leave vote nationwide, whether in North Yorkshire or Surrey, and the disadvantaged communities that registered a protest vote are in Essex as well as Yorkshire, Thurrock probably has more in common with Barnsley than Barnsley has with Ripon, where you could pin a blue rosette on a pig and it would win, for instance. And of course Leeds, Manchester and York voted Remain and have benefitted from globalisation in much the same way as big cities in the south, and those are the Labour heartlands, where Jeremy Corbyn's Brexit stance has been the biggest liability. The London media leave you with the impression that the North is one big swathe of decimated communities whilst the South is full of metropolitan elites, more dangerous simplification and stereotyping........

There is a northern chip on the shoulder, arising from the way it has been treated by the south, and resentment at the perceived affluent bubble but many who were motivated to vote leave partly because of it are actually comfortable off older voters in the affluent towns and rural areas who would never have voted Labour anyway. And many remain voters in northern and southern cities are Labour voters.

It is a crime that science and tech firms have flocked to infrastructure deserts around London Oxford and Cambridge when for want of a bit of investment they would have found attractive environments for their business and employees around the academic hubs of Manchester Leeds and Sheffield with good links spreading the benefit to places like Barnsley and Rotherham. But had that been done I really don't think it would have made that much difference to the referendum result or voting patterns. If Labour has lost support in the north I think it has more to do with the changing nature of working class communities for whom voting Labour is no longer an important part of their culture.