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Brexit

Westminstenders: Prorogation

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:10

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

OP posts:
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woman19 · 29/08/2019 18:15

Richard Harrington majority is 1,425 above Labour in 2017.

prettybird · 29/08/2019 18:16

I've just completed a political poll for Survation. I didn't miss and hit the wall on the questions asking how well you thought a selection of MPs (and a MSP Wink) had been performing re Brexit (although there was one name I had to say I didn't know who he was Blush).

I did take a picture of one of the questions to make you lot Envy

Westminstenders: Prorogation
SistemaAddict · 29/08/2019 18:19

Wtf @prettybird ?!

Eyewhisker · 29/08/2019 18:22

According to R4, Johnson discusses prorogation only with Michael Gove and Geoffrey Cox. Shows a very authoritative style.

I agree with the explanation above that he is also flying by the seat of his pants, and has not got a clear idea of what sort of deal/compromise could realistically be done with the EU.

prettybird · 29/08/2019 18:26

I was about to answer "Don't know" on the Romantic partner question.....and then I noticed Macron was one of the choices WinkGrin

woman19 · 29/08/2019 18:28

Pretty feeble stuff to say it's nothing to do with porogation surely ?

Richard Harrington, a former Tory minister and a vocal critic both Boris Johnson and Theresa May’s Brexit strategies, will stand down at the next general election

The MP for Watford resigned as a business minister in March and said May’s government was “playing roulette with the lives and livelihoods of the vast majority of people in this country

Following Wednesday’s news that Johnson plans to prorogue parliament, Harrington has told the Watford Observer

I think suspending parliament increases a no-deal and I will do everything in my power to ensure that won’t happen

The more time there is to debate, the more chance there is of reaching a compromise

He resigned from gov over brexit, supported 2nd ref and voted through the WA 3 times.

He's a fellow traveller at the moment and I would welcome any tories who have the courage to do the same.

Peregrina · 29/08/2019 18:48

I just wish that some prominent Tories would resign the whip next week, thus making Johnson lose his majority. There need to be 10 of them or so, to counteract the Hoeys and other Tory fellow travellers.

MockersthefeMANist · 29/08/2019 18:56

Lord President Mogg says it's all faux outrage by sour grapes remoaners.

I could respond in kind, but I don't think you should judge JRM until you've walked a mile in his house.

Peregrina · 29/08/2019 18:57

I am also a very sick of the '"it's only 4 more days" Leaver apologists. They ought to have recalled Parliament and cancelled the party Conferences, or cut them short at least.

It will be interesting to see them screaming when Johnson shafts them.

Peregrina · 29/08/2019 18:59

Good to see that Rees-Mogg respects the traditions of Parliament. Part of me hopes for a Corbyn Government and him trying the same trick.

BigChocFrenzy · 29/08/2019 19:05

It's 5 fucking weeks, not 4 days

CordeliaWyndamPryce · 29/08/2019 19:06

On Richard Harrington - though I didn't vote for him, he was really helpful when I was having issues with student loans people being dicks. I think his announcement may be due to the news of a 3 line whip being imposed on tories for all of next week. It shows he has nothing to lose and I expect he will vote with his conscience.

BigChocFrenzy · 29/08/2019 19:10

Ian Dunt:

www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2019/08/29/fatal-misjudgement-johnson-has-united-opponents-of-no-deal

People know what they are witnessing, no matter how they voted in 2016.
Some Leave voters want Brexit at all costs, doubtless even if it involved tanks rolling down English streets as the Union fell apart.
Others, however, are not so fanatical.

Support for proroguing parliament is tepid among Leavers
and non-existent among everyone else.
....
Which Boris have we got?

Perhaps it's the one the Times once had - the one who lies and then loses his job.

tobee · 29/08/2019 19:11

Fair enough woman.

Are you sure that survey wasn't for Celebrity Love Island pretty? HmmGrin

prettybird · 29/08/2019 19:15

Could you imagine tobee ? Envy

DarkAtEndOfUK · 29/08/2019 19:19

Lord President Mogg says it's all faux outrage by sour grapes remoaners. I could respond in kind, but I don't think you should judge JRM until you've walked a mile in his house.

It's worse than that though. The damage that this is doing will linger long after Brexit. Not only is lying through one's back teeth with propaganda-driven rubbish now a normality in British politics, but so is setting up the opposing viewpoint as scapegoats. I am disappointed in the more friendly Tories who have not resigned the whip over this.

PerkingFaintly · 29/08/2019 19:21

I agree completely, DarkAtEndOfUK.

DarkAtEndOfUK · 29/08/2019 19:24

As with other matters, JRM's comments are out there. They are unlikely to be rescinded at all, and never with the same publicity as they were sent out. There are people who will listen.

placemats · 29/08/2019 19:32

It's an ultra right wing coup. It's clever, it's undemocratic and it certainly has inflamed the public. It's not going to work come a general election, but there are couple of years to go before that happens.

I doubt very much the legal challenges will amount to anything.

woman19 · 29/08/2019 19:33

Maybe game theory works on some types better than others? Sad

@GuardianHeather
Not clear how they will go about trying to secure this vote - but time is extremely tight for anti no-deal legislation, so it seems slightly odd tactics to spend days/hours in parliament trying to block prorogation...?

NEW - opposition leaders issue a joint statement demanding a vote on the prorogation of parliament.
Johnson's likely response: go ahead, try and make me.

Aah well......

prettybird · 29/08/2019 19:38

Just to add to all the doom and gloom, have you seen this?: No Deal Brexit impact on this year's flu vaccination programme Sad

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49487770

flouncyfanny · 29/08/2019 19:40

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Peregrina · 29/08/2019 19:44

I am disappointed in the more friendly Tories who have not resigned the whip over this.

Me too. Despite what I said, I wouldn't want a Corbyn Government pulling the same stunt as Johnson is doing. It could be the thin end of the wedge so it would be tempting for any new administration to try it.

I have precious little sympathy now for Leavers, even though I know some and they are perfectly decent people. They have been played for fools, and I hope they wake up soon, and realise this.

Peregrina · 29/08/2019 19:47

The Leavers have a ready made excuse for the flu vaccination not being available - there were shortages last year too. I wasn't offered it until February. So it's absolutely nothing to do with Brexit, oh no.

merrymouse · 29/08/2019 20:04

I keep hearing Remainers on the Radio who just want to leave now. They are fed up with the arguing!

This is just the beginning of years and years of arguing.

Without an agreement there is no 'just leaving now'.

Who knows why RD really resigned, but it's ridiculous that, in contrast, people are putting their faith in a man who has such little regard for his children that he won't even clarify how many he has.