Meet the Other Phone. Flexible and made to last.

Meet the Other Phone.
Flexible and made to last.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westminstenders: Prorogation

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:10

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
18
BigChocFrenzy · 29/08/2019 17:20

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn

Some serious disquiet in Govt now about the strategy.

One senior minister tells me:
“I don’t think No10 really understands that if we don’t have the MPs then we dont have control.

I think it is 50/50 what happens next”.

Hazardtired · 29/08/2019 17:23

I'm hungover.

Brexit spirit haiku

Fuck fuck fuck and fuck
They are cunts super cunty
Shitting hell bastards.

BigChocFrenzy · 29/08/2019 17:24

Labour prepping too for GE - we've learned that data on voters is crucial to persuading them and getting them out on the day

news.sky.com/story/live-rees-mogg-to-defend-pm-over-suspending-parliament-11796583

Rival Labour petition against parliament suspension 'data-gathering ahead of election'
Experts on digital campaigns tell Sky News that alternative petitions were most likely designed to gather data from likely voters.

wheresmymojo · 29/08/2019 17:25

Another good article here - might have been shared already. Slightly losing the thread while dividing attention between here, Twitter and Facebook when I should actually be working.

I've sent myself an 8pm social media curfew tonight!

www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2019/08/29/fatal-misjudgement-johnson-has-united-opponents-of-no-deal

prettybird · 29/08/2019 17:25

Scotland, with a system designed not to have a majority to keep the SNP out Wink that worked well Grin seems to manage to form stable coalitions Hmm: first two parliaments were Labour-LibDem coalitions, then an SNP minority government (which still managed to work), then a SNP majority administration (when they managed to break the d'Hondt system Shock), then currently a minority SNP administration (but Indy supporting parliament), when the d'Hondt system worked again.

So it is possible. Or are the Scots just different? Confused

BigChocFrenzy · 29/08/2019 17:26

On my way to the restaurant, a young man walking by smiled and waved towards the EU flag on my bicycle
This solidarity happens sometimes and is comforting

DGRossetti · 29/08/2019 17:26

Labour prepping too for GE

Well, let's see. Unlike some, I have no fear of Corbyn ...

tobee · 29/08/2019 17:27

Oh yes it's possible pretty Smile

tobee · 29/08/2019 17:28

Love to know which Senior Minister from BCF post. 🤔

woman19 · 29/08/2019 17:31

That article is good where'smy.

the saying goes that you should never interrupt your opponents when they're making a mistake. But if anti-no-deal politicians had lacked focus, unity and coherence over the summer, Johnson's anti-democratic assault on parliament yesterday was quite the interruption

RedToothBrush · 29/08/2019 17:38

Well, let's see. Unlike some, I have no fear of Corbyn ...

These things are relative. Especially after yesterday.

FWIW if I'm saying this, it's not insignificant. I believe there will be plenty for whom it would be enough to tip them into gritting teeth and supporting a Corbyn government if need be.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 29/08/2019 17:43

Alex Wickham@alexwickham
New: three line whip for Tory MPs all day each sitting day next week until government business has been secured. Whips gearing up for the order paper to be hijacked by backbench MPs

Westminstenders: Prorogation
OP posts:
verticality · 29/08/2019 17:43

I really hope you're right RedToothBrush. To stop a complete disaster, I think we are going to need everyone who is Remain to vote tactically. For some that will mean supporting Labour as the best-placed party to beat the Tories, for others it may mean voting Lib Dem.

The parties themselves also need to do their bit - stop squabbling pettily and get on with the urgent business of passing some robust legislation.

ListeningQuietly · 29/08/2019 17:45

The biggest problem with a Corbyn government
is that he is a backbencher who has never had to actually implement a decision in his life
and he's been sat on the fence so long he has cramp.
He wants Brexit
but wants the Tories to do it
he wants to win an election
but not to do the boring "govern for five years" afterwards.

I do not "fear" him, I just think he'll be utterly ineffective

BubblesBuddy · 29/08/2019 17:48

I keep hearing Remainers on the Radio who just want to leave now. They are fed up with the arguing! I’m wondering if they are representative of Remain voters are not. I haven’t changed my view and I’m never going to vote for Labour! Lib Dem’s are a possibility because their policy is clear.

BigChocFrenzy · 29/08/2019 17:49

More savaging from continental papers

Even Hungary & Italy are contemptuous

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/boris-jonhnson-parliament-suspend-no-deal-brexit-europe-newspapers-a9083291.html

Germany’s public broadcaster Deutsche Welle went with the headline:

“Boris the dictator”

above an editorial saying a “weakness in the British political system rooted in its archaic traditions and heritage is coming back to haunt the country”.

The outlet added that
“What Johnson is doing... is befitting a military dictatorship".

German newspaper Zeit meanwhile <a class="break-all" href="http://go.redirectingat.com/?id=44681X1458326&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zeit.de%2Fpolitik%2Fausland%2F2019-08%2Fboris-johnson-britisches-parlament-zwangspause-brexit&sref=www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/boris-jonhnson-parliament-suspend-no-deal-brexit-europe-newspapers-a9083291.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">says in a report from its London correspondent that Johnson's move was "profoundly undemocratic"
and that its "intent is obvious" – to railroad through a policy without the support of parliament.

An <a class="break-all" href="http://go.redirectingat.com/?id=44681X1458326&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zeit.de%2Fpolitik%2Fausland%2F2019-08%2Feu-austritt-parlamentspause-unterhaus-boris-johnson-grossbritannien-brexit&sref=www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/boris-jonhnson-parliament-suspend-no-deal-brexit-europe-newspapers-a9083291.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">accompanying op-ed warns:

"This is now democracies end" adding: "It's a coup"
.....
Italy's Repubblica daily newspaper ..... warns that the suspension was
"a move of rare constitutional gravity that could open a crisis unprecedented in recent British history:
something like that happened when Charles I gagged the Parliament, triggering the English Civil War".

....."The political and constitutional chaos could be enormous, with very probably very serious consequences:
will British institutions hold up the shock wave this time?"
.....
La Stampa also <a class="break-all" href="http://go.redirectingat.com/?id=44681X1458326&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.lastampa.it%2Ftopnews%2Fprimo-piano%2F2019%2F08%2F29%2Fnews%2Fla-scommessa-di-boris-per-spaventare-bruxelles-e-fare-un-nuovo-accordo-1.37391130&sref=www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/boris-jonhnson-parliament-suspend-no-deal-brexit-europe-newspapers-a9083291.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">notes that "the last time a British leader suspended Parliament it did not finish well" and ended in "two decades of war".^
....
In Poland, leading daily Wyborcza runs with the headline: ....
"The British respond: 'Stop the coup'".

Hungarian daily newspaper Magyar Nemzet says in an op-ed that while Boris Johnson's "rolling style an energetic impetus" might lead to the UK finally leaving the EU,
"the circumstances are not worthy of a 21st century European democratic state".
< blimey, being told by Hungary >

LonelyTiredandLow · 29/08/2019 17:51

I go away for one week...!
Would love to say I cannot believe it, but sadly the last 3 years have taught me to never say never.

Have been humming American Pie and substituting the words with The Day Democracy Died Sad

woman19 · 29/08/2019 17:54

Richard J Evans, one of Britain’s foremost historians of Germany and the Third Reich, has written a piece for Prospect magazine in which he compares present day Britain and the US to Weimar Germany

He notes there have been signals that a potential vote of no confidence could be shrugged off with contempt by Boris Johnson

If that were to happen, parliamentary democracy would truly be in trouble in this country. This is Britain’s Reichstag Fire Decree moment,” Evans writes

www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/aug/29/backlash-after-boris-johnson-prorogues-parliament-ahead-of-brexit-live-news#5d67fb248f082209d3223ef0

PostNotInHaste · 29/08/2019 17:54

This is all so incredibly sad. It absolutely didn’t have to be like this. We’ve been deliberately split into two opposing groups and shafted and sadly have all fallen for it.

SwedishEdith · 29/08/2019 17:57

I liked that Unherd article. Game theory, like Brexit, has always struck me as very male. I always found the strategising very tedious - just talk to each other.

Calyx72 · 29/08/2019 18:03

@Hazardtired I love your haiku

Thanks for the thread all, it's my first read every day after work and I feel in the loop because of you all

GinCakeThanksWineBrew for everyone

Hoooo · 29/08/2019 18:07

Oh! Haikus!

Brexit;
Oh, the humanity!
Motherfuckers

mrslaughan · 29/08/2019 18:09

DH is in Iceland - was taken out to a very Business-y lunch (on the menu was minke whale - VERY disturbing) - after he got over that shock (or maybe that's just me) he said table of businessmen beside him(he thinks they were Icelandic) having a conversation about British politics..... they were ruminating about how the government was being run by madmen, but what really made his day was the ridicule the JRM came in for "very stupid" was his fav quote.....

woman19 · 29/08/2019 18:09

@matt_dathan
EXCL: Tory MP Richard Harrington is tonight announcing he will quit the Commons at the next election and he confirms he'll vote to block a No Deal Brexit next week.

But he insists his decision to stand down is nothing to do with the PM's prorogation plans.

Brexit Haiku

Brexitty mars bars
Are so tiny that
I can eat them in one bite.

tobee · 29/08/2019 18:15

Pretty feeble stuff to say it's nothing to do with porogation surely ?