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Brexit

Westminstenders: Prorogation

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:10

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

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Motheroffourdragons · 29/08/2019 13:13

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

prettybird · 29/08/2019 13:13

I don't get the love for Ruth either Confused. But I suppose it's easier from a distance to be impressed by her as a "reasonable" Tory Hmm Not so nice close up Sad - refusing to condemn the Child Tax Credit so called "Rape Clause" for example Angry

But I suppose all things are relative and as Tories go...... HmmWink

RedToothBrush · 29/08/2019 13:14

Sebastian Payne @SebastianePayne
More chat from the No.10 bunker about what Dom Cummings might be up to:

“Cummings is trying to goad Grieve and co - he says the more they appear babbling on TV, the stronger the support in focus groups for the prime minister to end the nightmare on October 31,” says one official

This is absolutely spot on.

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Motheroffourdragons · 29/08/2019 13:15

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

wheresmymojo · 29/08/2019 13:19

Genuine question: if we take your average political poll, how many of those saying they will vote Tory at the next election nowadays are Remainers?

Only anecdata but in my experience on the Tory FB forums certainly very few members are Remainers now

RedToothBrush · 29/08/2019 13:20

Chris Smith @The86Kid
It's mutually understood that we queue in a civilised manner. It also means when someone pushes in the front nobody has a clue what to do, and this is where we find ourselves.

Prorogation in a nutshell

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DGRossetti · 29/08/2019 13:22

I wouldn't be at all surprised to hear a European being interviewed on British TV to be fluent in English though DGR

Oh indeed - but that is the (sadly) asymmetric nature of our language. That said, not only are many fluent, but happily making puns and tweaking nuance to make jokes.

It's an education to watch Henning Wehn (who is one of my favourite comics full stop) for a full show. Like my DF, his grasp of English is far deeper than the accent would suggest.

RedToothBrush · 29/08/2019 13:24

Genuine question: if we take your average political poll, how many of those saying they will vote Tory at the next election nowadays are Remainers?

Latest You breakdown splits potential Conservative voters into 17% remain 53% Leave based on how they voted at the ref. The others must not have voted in the ref.

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DGRossetti · 29/08/2019 13:34

www.theregister.co.uk/2019/08/29/gov_flings_10m_to_help_businesses_get_brexitready_with_information_packs/

Just months before the omnishambles deal-or-no-deal uncertainty of Britain's exit from the European Union, the government has a cunning plan to help businesses prepare: information packs!

...

Applications will be accepted up to Friday 20 September 2019 for activities to be completed ahead of 31 October to ensure "our businesses are fully prepared for Brexit day," it said.

(contd)

wheresmymojo · 29/08/2019 13:38

Red...do you have a link to that poll?

No worries if not, I will ferret it out as useful for Tory forums.

Have to say though I'll be stepping back from the Tory forums soon. I'll still stay a member to dip in now and then and see what the mood music is but I'm losing hours of my life having frustrating arguments with arseholes on there. I don't mind debating with reasonable people but I'm sick of the ones who have no open mind/don't believe in experts/etc.

Pushed over the edge by constant stupid comments yesterday by a CFO who lives in the nearest market town to me. Clearly just had an issue with a woman with an opinion and I found myself at 1am, still online replying to his stupid/childish comments and thinking 'why am I wasting my time on this arsehole'?

flouncyfanny · 29/08/2019 13:41

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Message withdrawn at poster's request.

tobee · 29/08/2019 13:43

Yes indeed re Henning Wehn DGR

DGRossetti · 29/08/2019 13:46

I wonder if Izzards French (and German) is up to snuff ? Not talking accent, but grasp of idiom etc ?

Sounds good to me, but (of course) I have my "English" ears on.

wheresmymojo · 29/08/2019 13:47

The rumour mill on Twitter is suggesting the BXP's event in BJ's constituency on Saturday is to announce their PPC.

And it will be Farage!!!

Comes from Lib Dem PPC in the same constituency....

DGRossetti · 29/08/2019 14:03

I have a hat with sauce on it, if Farage stands anywhere. Why would he ? He's never won a UK parliamentary election. I doubt that's going to change anytime soon.

flouncyfanny · 29/08/2019 14:10

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

ListeningQuietly · 29/08/2019 14:19

mojo
Farridge will never stand as he's been beaten too many times already.
Look how many political parties he's already walked out of.

woman19 · 29/08/2019 14:25

Brexistitus explained in the Brexit Weekly:

Can watching pornography cause impotence

life.spectator.co.uk/articles/can-watching-pornography-cause-impotence/

DGRossetti · 29/08/2019 14:31

"Le singe est dans l'arbe"

It could all get very Monty Python, really Grin

"Mais ! Qu'est que ce ? Le singe est dans un autobus. Le cinge conduit l'autobus. Mais le autobus ne peut pas aller lentement de cent kilometres a l'heure ..."

tobee · 29/08/2019 14:50

"I have a hat with sauce on it" sounds like a French/German/Italian/Spanish idiom???

Teaching English idioms to my tefl students is one of the hardest (but fun) things to do, for even advanced learners. We use them much more than we realise. I'm supposed to elicit language/grammar from students, to help it stick in the memory, but frequently I end up just telling them the answer BlushGrin

SequinnedSlippers · 29/08/2019 14:53

It’s referring to “I’ll eat my hat” tobee

DGRossetti · 29/08/2019 14:53

"I have a hat with sauce on it" sounds like a French/German/Italian/Spanish idiom???

My hovercraft is full of eels.

RedToothBrush · 29/08/2019 14:53

wheresmymojo the Brexit Party were out campaigning in Uxbridge on Sat.

No Farage but they were making a big song and dance about it on twitter.

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tobee · 29/08/2019 14:54

Or is "hat with sauce on it" Python? My dd would be ashamed of me as she's a Python aficionado!

tobee · 29/08/2019 14:54

Well I know "my hovercraft is full of eels" is Our Lord John Cleese!