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Brexit

Westminstenders: Prorogation

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:10

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

OP posts:
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missclimpson · 29/08/2019 12:23

Good coverage on the French lunchtime news. Interviews with demonstrators, interview with Philip Hammond, discussion of the petition. "Stop the coup" is a good line.

tobee · 29/08/2019 12:24

Hello Oubliette Grin

PerkingFaintly · 29/08/2019 12:24

Screenshot of JP's doodle.

Westminstenders: Prorogation
tobee · 29/08/2019 12:24

Did Phillip Hammond speak in French?

OhYouBadBadKitten · 29/08/2019 12:25

That's good to hear missclimpson

verticality · 29/08/2019 12:26

No, Ruth Davidson sees the writing on the wall- Remain is no longer a Tory position, and they are doing extremely well electorally out of that.

DGRossetti · 29/08/2019 12:28

Did Phillip Hammond speak in French?

Unless he's 100% fluent, I'd hope not ...

"Stop the coup" is a good line.

Funny we use a French word, we don't seem to have an English equivalent. Maybe now is the time to correct that.

"Stop the Boris" ?
"A Boris d'etat ?"

I'm sure there's a coup/coupe pun somewhere that the French would appreciate ... (I love French punning ....)

wheresmymojo · 29/08/2019 12:29

@borntobequiet I'll be going to London on Saturday. Which station do you arrive in?

missclimpson · 29/08/2019 12:29

No @tobee, the journalist spoke English. But Jérémee Corbeen sounds good in French. 😊

OhYouBadBadKitten · 29/08/2019 12:32

Just a heads up that SWR are running train strikes this weekend. Trains are still running, but to a different timetable. Don't be put off by it, just be prepared.

tobee · 29/08/2019 12:32

Grinmissclimpson

tobee · 29/08/2019 12:35

I wouldn't be at all surprised to hear a European being interviewed on British TV to be fluent in English though DGR

SwedishEdith · 29/08/2019 12:39

I agree - when she can do so without the yoke of BloJob wink Having said that, re her stated belief that BloJob wants a deal: she is no fool, so that means she's a liar

It's a good message to split the Tory vote though. BXP still survives if they don't trust Johnson.

EllebellyBeeblebrox · 29/08/2019 12:40

Even as a staunch labour supporter I like Ruth Davidson, think she's committed and principled. I also watched Sam Gyimah interviewed on breakfast this morning and thought what he said was encouraging, that he and other conservative MPs (not named of course) are entering cross party task to try to avoid this.
"Shocked by the reckless move to suspend parliament to deliver an extreme Brexit for which there is no mandate. Taking a wrecking ball to the constitution by suspending parliament to avoid scrutiny, is no way to uphold democracy. I will work on a cross party basis to stop no deal"

verticality · 29/08/2019 12:51

"It's a good message to split the Tory vote though. BXP still survives if they don't trust Johnson."

Genuine question: if we take your average political poll, how many of those saying they will vote Tory at the next election nowadays are Remainers?

My hunch on this is that the rump of Remainers that are left is considerably smaller than the body of Brexit Party voters being wooed to the party. My sense is that the diehard Remain centrist Tories have already largely moved to the Lib Dems. It is just a hunch, but I think what we are seeing is a slightly altered party which combines a large number of dyed-in-the-wool Tories with Brexit Party, ex-UKIP, and ex-Labour voters.

Here are the movements up to the EU elections earlier in the year, where the Tories did terribly. However, if you imagine that what is happening is that the bulk of BP voters registered here are returning to the Tory party, you can see how large their support base is compared to the very split Remain parties.

www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/05/lord-ashcroft-my-eu-election-poll-most-former-tory-voters-say-they-will-stay-with-their-new-party-at-the-next-election.html

PerkingFaintly · 29/08/2019 12:54

More from James Patrick, who I think is correct:

twitter.com/J_amesp/status/1166657959679668224

Westminstenders: Prorogation
Motheroffourdragons · 29/08/2019 12:55

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

Hoooo · 29/08/2019 12:56

63 days...

(Or about 4 depending who you believe....)

verticality · 29/08/2019 12:59

What James Patrick is missing there is that this is less about Brexit than about the general election that is coming.

wheresmymojo · 29/08/2019 13:02

I also watched Sam Gyimah interviewed on breakfast this morning and thought what he said was encouraging, that he and other conservative MPs (not named of course) are entering cross party task to try to avoid this

^ I'm just not sure there are enough though: I got to about 10 or so yesterday I think.

Unless there are a number who have been entirely silent about it on Twitter who are working with him behind the scenes.

Motheroffourdragons · 29/08/2019 13:03

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

tobee · 29/08/2019 13:09

I find it hard to see beyond the stunts (bucking bronco, wasn't it?) and laughing with Ruth Davidson.

By the way, how does Johnson go down with Labour Leave voters in the Labour Leave heartlands? I would imagine not well.

RedToothBrush · 29/08/2019 13:09

Paul Brand @paulbranditv
Senior source in the Lords confident that they can get a bill through to prevent No Deal by Monday, even with filibustering from govt. Chamber may sit through the night Friday into Saturday, or even on the weekend.

Steven Swinford@steven_swinford
Ruth Davidson:

I stared him in the eye and said I need to know are you trying to get a deal or not?

He categorically assured me that he was. I want him to get that deal

OP posts:
tobee · 29/08/2019 13:11

I don't think Rudd will quit as she's newly on board. Disgraceful really.

wheresmymojo · 29/08/2019 13:12

I don't get all the love for Ruth Davidson, she is a tory through and through.

Sure...but I don't advocate a world where a Conservative party doesn't exist while there is support within voters for one.

That being the case it would be good to have a Conservative party that at least has principled leaders with integrity and political ethics.

Rather than Trumpism - outright liars, eroding democracy, etc.

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