Westminstenders: Prorogation

[RedToothBrush]

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

I'm in France, sitting in a soft play watching my kids play with a bunch of French kids they've just met.

I broke my foot yesterday, a quick show of my EHIC and I'm straight through for treatment.

Coincidentally, reading a book about ww2

Feels poignant

mojo I was involved in a similar back and forth with someone who managed a full house in about 3 comments, Y2K, it'll be fiiiiiine etc, however, someone else also commenting coined my new favourite put down wankspangles

utter lazy wankspangles are why we got here in the first place

Kamal Ahmed @bbckamal
^SET. YOUR. WATCH. @BBCNews delighted to announce new prime time, weekly, in-depth, political programme with the peerless @afneil
The Andrew Neil Show launches next Wednesday 7pm #BBC2 Analysis, forensic interviews with the key players - peeps, this stuff matters^

I don't like Neil. But I am pleased about this none the less.

Bummer.
Sorry to hear that, Marmot 💐

Just back from the hairdresser and I heard a couple of chairs over discussing "Parliament suspended"
so flapped my ears and heard how shocked they were

This is in an ordinary German village

Brexit has been the butt of jokes here for at least a couple of years, but now the mirth has turned to shock

DGR
that was clever!
You win

Humble address to stop Prorogation

James Forsyth@JGForsyth

Didn’t expect David Cameron to come out of Ruth Davidson’s press conference worse than Boris Johnson, but this quote from her is brutal

‘referenda should be used to affirm public opinion but not as a way for political leaders to fail to lead’ ✅✅

Anybody know what's the latest on Corbyn's request to meet the Queen?

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall

Until relatively recently, Ruth Davidson was considered a viable candidate for the leadership of the Conservatives.

The party has changed a lot in a short space of time to make that prospect today unthinkable.

Interesting thread. This is actually the line DH is taking. Johnson is bluffing as he has no fucking idea what to do now. I think there's some merit to it.

Simon Usherwood @Usherwood
Let's practice reusing my Twitter thread muscle by discussing the Johnson government really wants a deal or not 1/

Rhetorically, a deal remains the preferred option, but as @BrigidLaffan rightly notes, we have to look to actions, since these seem inconsistent with that aim 2/

Those actions include: a strong fore-grounding of pro-no-dealers in Cabinet; lack of proposals to amend the WA; increased no-deal contingency activity; and a general effort to lay blame for no-deal elsewhere 3/

That last point seems key for me: government seems to angling for "we tried everything to get an exit on 31 Oct, but if it doesn't happen then it was the fault of Parliament (for blocking us) or EU27 (for not renegotiating something we can accept)" 4/

And yet

If the government is willing to go for a 5-week prorogation, then why not a longer one that completely shuts out Parliamentary gambits? 5/

One option is that the legal advice was that this would be too risky/nakedly political/put Queen in an impossible position

Another is that this is intentional, to leave a space for a rushed new WAB 6/

[RTB - the third option Usherwood isn't considering here is simply optics ahead of a GE. Johnson wants to look reasonable even if he's not. Proroguation makes him look tough, but he also wants to look like he is leaving space for a deal. Thus he plays to both the hard right and the liberal parts of the voter base. Think this is a critical point]

^This would fit a 'madman' model, as discussed by @AbhinayMuthoo
today:^ theconversation.com/suspending-parliament-could-be-the-act-of-a-credible-madman-or-master-bluffer-top-game-theorist-on-boris-johnson-122489 7/

(tl;dr act so erratically that others make more concessions, for fear of what might happen instead) 7 bis/

[RTB: I don't think this will either work nor make a difference. Everyone knows that the man is a narcisist and liar already anyway. And keeps bad company. I don't think he had to shut down parliament to prove anything or scare anyone].

the problem with that is that the EU accept the UK might indeed leave with no-deal, as Johnson threatens, but think it's ridiculous because the costs of that choice will weigh much more heavily on UK than EU 8/

Also, impression from last week of bilateral talks is that EU sees this all as part of a wider gambit by Johnson: note that several reports spoke +ly about UK desire to get into substantive talks 9/

And yet

There are two immediate and obvious problems 10/

One is that the UK isn't advancing any proposals. Maybe that's because they worry about leaks. But maybe it's because it doesn't have any proposals to make.

ERG/DUP issues go well beyond the backstop 11/

And this speaks to the bigger, underlying problem: the government still doesn't have a handle on what Brexit's for.

Without that, it is guessing about what might constitute sufficient WA change to merit ratification 12/

Hence the earnest enquiries as to whether the EU has any ideas, and the calls for things that aren't even remotely acceptable 13/

So, back to the OP: is Johnson looking for a deal or not?

My impression is that he is, but that he's not clear about what that deal might be

Which is going to be an issue

/end

[RTB: I personally agree with this analysis to a point. Except I think Johnson does want to no deal and is prepared to do so, because politically its the easiest thing ahead of an election to do. His plan is to ride the storm. The problem is that there is a deal that will HAVE to be made at some point with the EU - and potentially the US too. And at that point, Johnson is going to have to sell SOMEONE down river. He does not know how to get the EU deal (which 2/3rds of the electorate think is very important) and his problem with the US deal is that will destroy some of his core support if it goes near the NHS and he is being VERY careful about the messages that are coming out from government on this. He is concerned about this area. The bottomline here, is if he is acting true to previous character he is unprepared and winging it. His priority is to stay in power as PM NOT Brexit, thus this shapes everything. And he hasn't thought beyond this point. Instead its all about optics and image - cos he hasn't got anything else and he doesn't know how to do anything else.]

tobe JC has "demanded" a meeting with the Queen, but no news yet on whether she's agreed

she might want to duck out, but meeting the leader of the Opposition at this time is part of her duty,
so I assume she will asap

( wheresmymojo, sorry, your pics weren't showing when I posted mine.)

Or is "hat with sauce on it" Python?

No, it was an elliptical reference (nod to another ongoing thread there ) to "I'll eat my hat ..."

Let's take a second to miss Paddy Ashdown

In darker moments (when I give thanks DM isn't here to see this), I do wonder if God has been gathering those He loves up quietly before the end of days ? Then I remember there's no god, and nearly abandon the idea. But the continued existence of Farage and Johnson et al could just tip me back again ...

This should be renamed the anti brexit thread. It is just the same stuff ad nauseum.

red I think BJ has at least one characteristic in common with May:
No longterm planning, just concentrating on surviving a few weeks at a time

He has to deliver No Deal on 31 October 11pm, or the ERG will destroy him immediately

He then hopes to bamboozle his way to a quick GE victory, before the voters rumble what ND means and how useless he is
With a working majority and a 5-year term, he achieves his aim of being PM for a few years

If it gets too stressful, then he'll bugger off to a high-paid sleb / media career, here and / or the USA

After No Deal, BJ probably hopes for v quick "sector" deals with the USA
rather than a full FTA for which they would demand lower food standards, higher NHS drug prices etc

• and even if the UK bends over, an FTA would take years

Well, the EU won't offer him sector deals, even minideals, until he agrees to their preconditions.

The US might, but still would likely demand no NI border checks

So that might be BJ's getout: the US demands an NI backstop, so that makes it ok

That would actually work with most of those voters against the backstop, who don't know or care about NI,
but don't want the EU to "win" on the backstop

Yes I immediately thought of Old Paddy Pantsdown there, DGR

BCF, this weekend will be interesting. I'm going to a wedding abroad. Only other person going I know other than the bride (everyone else is local national) is a former teacher of mine. He (and his wife) are the only other native English speakers. We have nothing else in common apart from the EU, internationalism and my friend. I know that he will remember me (Long story involving us joining the EU in 1992 as it goes). Oh and he lives in a True Yellow part of Stockport. I've not seen or talked to him in 24 years but if he's not an Arch Remainer I'll eat the entire wedding cake myself. It is INEVITABLE that Brexshit will come up in conversation and its going to be really interesting to see what others say there. Mainly cos I'm going to bring it up to avoid other otherwise hideously embarassing conversations!

SequinnedSlippers Top form today, Slippers, with your mantel[ sic ] of hope.
Now I must don mine and away as I'm called from the Bar

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/29/lord-young-quits-government-over-boris-johnson-proroguing-parliament

Another Tory with principles. As well as Grieve, Heseltine etc.

I was wondering if any academic political historian types know if the current craze to attempt to deselect "wrong thinking" sitting MPs (on both sides) on a wholesale scale is in fact a new craze? I don't remember that happening, say, when Michael Foot was leader? Being a broad church party was seen as a natural thing surely?

@wheresmymojo - I have PMd you

I don't know enough about 'game theory' but this was my hunch about Cummings too, that he's applying it in his 'strategising'.
unherd.com/2019/08/dominic-cummings-is-no-chicken/

Following on from Patrick's theory that this is more government by trolling, Bush reckons that it's to force a mid Oct election, (which was the story last week?) and the concern round prorogation is slightly misplaced.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/08/what-boris-johnsons-plan-prorogue-parliament-really-means

What no one's looking at yet, is how useful actions against prorogation are for building bigger alliances agains crash out/ hard brexit/ etc, which may come in handy in the snap election campaign.