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Brexit

Westminstenders: Prorogation

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:10

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 23:21

Faisal Islam@faisalislam

As PM, Mr Johnson hasn’t actually won a single Commons vote, before asking and getting the Queen to suspend it ...

that hasn’t happened at least post war/ in this monarch’s reign.

mathanxiety · 28/08/2019 23:22

DGRossetti Wed 28-Aug-19 14:11:39
Also, if the Monarchs job is just to rubber stamp whatever they are told, where do I apply ?

Indeed, what exactly is the function of the monarch?
The monarchy is an empty institution whose irrelevance has never been so clearly underlined.

DarkAtEndOfUK · 28/08/2019 23:24

What terrified me is that no one in power complained about all that pissedoffnow. They've been attacking our public institutions one by one for years. Equality under law is the absolute last bastion of democracy and human rights, and our august leaders refused to defend it.

Much of the press is fake news though, it was co-opted years ago.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 23:25

The monarch can only intervene if the govt does something illegal

She can't intervene to stop something stupid, damaging or even evil - or she'd have stopped e.g. UC

Our unwritten constitution has far too few safeguards that are actually legally binding on a government

tobee · 28/08/2019 23:25

Sorry if this has been posted already, but leaked documents show that it is proposed that teachers will be able to use "reasonable force" on unruly pupils. This is just a part of the New World Order under Johnson. Fuck human rights, huh?

news.sky.com/story/teachers-to-be-backed-to-use-reasonable-force-on-unruly-pupils-in-behaviour-crackdown-11796282

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 23:29

I suspect that Johnson has now unleashed something he can’t control.

This.

Absolutely this.

There is no way out of this without civil unrest of some description. I've thought that since Day 1, 24th June 2016.

Don't forget Johnson was on holiday for the London Riots.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 23:30

If she were magically replaced by a President, there would be the same problem:

the govt is acting within the law,
because the useless bloody unwritten constitution depends on a PM being decent enough not to act like this

Peregrina · 28/08/2019 23:32

"I expect some much stronger checks and balances to be put in"

Notice the timescale I gave. Think back to Nazi Germany- Hitler got in in 1933, was finally defeated in 1945 and only then could the allies try to put in the checks and balances.

By the time they happen for us Johnson, Rees-Mogg will be long gone, and I probably will be too.

Peregrina · 28/08/2019 23:34

Does anyone know if the protests are still going on in London or have people packed up for the night?

CordeliaWyndamPryce · 28/08/2019 23:34

tobee, teachers have been able to do that for ages. Ime, though, very few are actually trained in any kind of safe restraint (current school has none and previous school was slt and HoY only) and few would be willing to used force except where a child is putting themselves or others in danger.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 23:34

BJ doesn't care

He'll enjoy foreign trips being honoured as the UK PM
and leave Cummings &co to actually run the country - similar to his stint as London Mayor

If things get too tough, he'll retire to enjoy very well-paid lectures and articles in the US & UK rightwing media

  • with police bodyguards for life, paid with your taxes
LouiseCollins28 · 28/08/2019 23:36

If you mean a “government of national unity” FractalChaos basically that could happen after a Vote of No Confidence in the Johnson government.

Such a vote can only be called by the Leader of the Opposotion, Jeremy Corbyn. If the govt lose they are out. All simple so far, but in order for the government to lose some current Conservative MPs must vote against their own government.

That’s where the problem of who would be PM following a successful vote starts because there is no way more than a tiny number (if any) Conservstive MPs will vote their own government out if the result is to make Corbyn PM.

The other way to get an alternative government would be to call an immediate GE and await the result of that, but to do it 2/3 of MPs would need to vote in favour to overturn the fixed term parliament act which has next GE in. June’s 2022

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 23:36

Government by Bullingdon:

Have great fun smashing up the place

Leave the rubble behind for the plebs to clear up

Hazardtired · 28/08/2019 23:37

I'm sobering up... it's awfully unfortunate.

Lonelycrab · 28/08/2019 23:41

Disappointed mnhq that you’ve deleted my post. If you are not able to express your opinion that someone is talking nonsense (clav) then where exactly are we?

Hazardtired · 28/08/2019 23:44

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/270938/moderation-info

No confidence petition...not live yet so dont know the details just leaving it here.

LisaMontgomery · 28/08/2019 23:46

but to do it 2/3 of MPs would need to vote in favour to overturn the fixed term parliament act

Surely it only takes a simple majority to repeal/amend legislation?

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 23:50

A VoNC that does not produce an immediate replacement PM just means BJ chooses the time of the next GE

  • and he will ensure that is after No Deal, with Parliament automatically dissolved for the 5 weeks beforehand

So, a VoNC is useless without the votes in hand for the replacement interim PM, almost certainly JC
So Tory rebels who refuse this are saying a few days or weeks of JC is worse than No Deal Hmm
Tribalism wins again .

Confidence & Supply would be more likely than a Govt of National Unity, so MPs could vote him out if ever he did something not agreed

The interim govt might just be for a few days, long enough to ask for an extension from the EU
and then collapse the govt again so that JC as caretaker PM can choose the GE date

I doubt if any support for JC could last much longer, so that is about all he could achieve

Mind you, I give this scheme about a 5% chance of happening
The expected legal challenges against prorogue about the same 5%

So over the cliff we go

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 23:52

"Surely it only takes a simple majority to repeal/amend legislation?"

Yes, but the Opposition can't just propose legislation; the govt has to do that

BigChocFrenzy · 29/08/2019 00:01

The Irish Border@BorderIrish

I see yous are still at the stockpiling of fing eejits.

Good idea, really.
You can never have enough fing eejits at the best of times,
but if there's going to be a No Deal you'll be wanting to be having a big fing pile of fing eejits handy

woman19 · 29/08/2019 00:01

teachers have been able to do that for ages
Shock
It's G/ABH, child abuse, illegal and in breach of ECHR.
If a child, teacher or parent is aware of this happening in a school, it should be reported to the police, or they would find themselves in breach of safeguarding protocol.

I think the London protests have ended now Peregrina but OYBK is running a great thread on what is on and what is coming up. Lots and lots. in cities and towns all over this island.
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3677475-Protests-against-the-Prorogation-of-Parliament

Why was lonely's post deleted?

Seems odd.

FractalChaos · 29/08/2019 00:02

sort of what i mean, i think. Thank you. I get the VONC thing.

Is that what Tuesdays signing at the church was about? Surely if they have committd then they have agreed who will be the alternative pm?

I think I am referring the alternative government as in who will the EU recognise as PM mentioned in the OP?

LouiseCollins28 · 29/08/2019 00:10

Or, from another POV, if Labour continue to insist that a GNU must have Jeremy Corbyn as PM even when it becomes clear that he couldn’t command then confidence of the HOC then they are the ones prioritising tribal loyalty over stopping “no deal”. How he could be adjudged suitable to lead a national unity government is beyond me.

BigChocFrenzy · 29/08/2019 00:16

On reflection, it would be useful to have a Lexiter as replacement PM, rather than a Remainer

Whoever it is would be basically a hand puppet for MPs to get an extension and stop No Deal
He / she definitely would become the "PM for the shortest time ever" probably just a week or two

The PM couldn't do anything without agreement
So JC would be unable to do whatever it is so many people are afraid of him doing

Lonelycrab · 29/08/2019 00:19

Well if he’s a caretaker pm alongside other respected parliamentarians in charge of a coalition government Louise, surely that’s better than a far right coup?