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Brexit

Westminstenders: Prorogation

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:10

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
18
woman19 · 28/08/2019 22:31

we will just sit back and accept the inevitable
London still occupied. Actions this evening in Liverpool, Cambridge, Oxford, Bristol, Brighton, Manchester and more With a few hours notice. Much younger looking crowds too.

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 22:33

I've just been looking up what I've said in the past on the subject and in its interesting.

The idea that 'no one saw it coming' or 'no one could have predicted this, are just way off'.

Exhibit A
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/a2685902-Westminstenders-Contines-Boris-outmaneovered-everyone-Now-War-and-Peace
RedToothBrush Tue 19-Jul-16 10:19:51

Exhibit B
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/a2762184-Westministenders-Boris-grabs-his-clown-suit-for-Halloween-whilst-we-wonder-if-parliament-survive-until-Bonfire-Night
RedToothBrush Sat 22-Oct-16 13:23:53 (the original OP of the thread)

Exhibit C
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/a2927046-Westministenders-Before-the-Fire-Alarm-of-Rome-goes-off
RedToothBrush Tue 16-May-17 17:58:06
A copy of a key twitter thread by Jasmin Mujanović‏ @JasminMuj on Authoritarianism and the need to do something NOW not tomorrow.

Exhibit D
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/a3477681-Westminstenders-The-WA-Vote-ReDux
umpteennamechanges Mon 14-Jan-19 02:59:56
A post coping what Robert Peston said on Facebook.

Exhibit E
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/a3488891-Westminsterenders-Dont-Panic-Really-Dont-Panic-Honestly-Dont-Panic#prettyPhoto
RedToothBrush Fri 25-Jan-19 01:25:03
The one I got wrong but the Queen most certainly saw a mile off - re proroguation. She will be very unhappy today, I'm sure

Exhibit F
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/a3491079-Westminstenders-The-English-Gentleman-and-Martial-Law
RedToothBrush Mon 28-Jan-19 12:29:10

Exhibit G
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/a3539678-Westminstenders-Flextension
RedToothBrush Fri 22-Mar-19 08:01:51 &
RedToothBrush Fri 22-Mar-19 08:29:46

I know many of the rest of you have also made comments over the years with varying degrees of being laughed at or told you are being too extreme (DGR being particularly notable with his family history on this).

But its interesting to see it written down and documented as being definitely something there, and a concern even if its the 'at the back of your mind' worry.

Thats what makes my blood really boil to be honest. You can see it gradually crystalising but no one in opposition really taking the threat seriously or understanding whats going on.

They should have been all over this like a rash.

THATS what a constitution is for. To teach people the warning signs of authoritarianism and to encourage them to challenge it where they see it. And its THAT failing, rather than of the constitution itself that dooms us to repeat the past.

Liberals should KNOW their Jeffersons and their French Revolutions. They should KNOW their 1930s Germany. They should KNOW their NI history. They should KNOW their English Civil War. As well as the pillars and principles of democracy and the need for checks and balances.

And whoever said it upthread about the moderates of the past - Blair with the Civil Contingency Act and Clegg/Cameron with the FTPA - they have made it easy for the authoritarians to come in and make use of their lack of safeguarding.

Its strange because its not just the institute of parliament which is failing in its understanding and principles of safeguarding. Its happening widely across our instititions. Its in Grenfell. Its in the failings associated with the Trans Rights Activism which involve child protection, medical ethics and vulnerable people. Its in the scandal at North Staffs hospital. Its in the Morecambe Bay maternity scandal. Its in Windrush. Over and over again its repeating. The same thing. Systematic failure. Austerity plays a huge part in that, but its certainly not exclusive to it. Its the blinkers of the middle class to see beyond the safety of their own lives and how various groups have been silenced.

The future doesn't look to hot when you look at it through this lens. Human Rights and the ECHR were supposed to protect us from abuses of the state and from major institutions, yet without the power to enforce those rights they are lost to us. And thats the direction we are headed, with those now in charge actively and openly saying they want to do away with those last figleaves of rights, so there is no law to enforce.

I don't know.

I try not to get down or dark, but looking back my instincts when I have, have been some of the closest to what is playing out. And this is what upsets DH. He hates my 'gloommongering'. He gets very irrate when I do it. Its like he doesn't want to consider it never mind confront it.

OP posts:
Hoooo · 28/08/2019 22:34

I've tried phoning...
They are constantly engaged haz

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 22:36

I think I'll leave you with this tonight.

Good night all.

I hope you sleep well despite it all. Who knows what tomorrow (and the weeks ahead will bring).

Westminstenders: Prorogation
OP posts:
LeithWalk · 28/08/2019 22:36

A PM proroguing parliament to avoid parliamentary scrutiny on an unpopular policy.

Think I might just opt to close my school for 5 weeks to avoid my due OFSTED.

DarkAtEndOfUK · 28/08/2019 22:39

My sympathies red. As someone born to a normal working class background I've been trying to tell people for years that inequality was getting worse, representation was getting worse, the environmental crisis was coming on, and all this middle class denial and complaints about lower class anger was just making everything worse! At best, acknowledgement but apathy. At worst, stop causing trouble.

Jason118 · 28/08/2019 22:42

Too many people are comfortably numb - they need poking gently with a stick.

mathanxiety · 28/08/2019 22:45

"there was no civil war in 1930s Germany."

This was because the civil unrest, political assassinations, street fights, government repression, and upheaval of the 1920s had yielded the result of the Brownshirts on top, a result that was cemented by the ascent to power of Adolph Hitler in 1933. (After which he began the mopping up of political opposition in earnest, including the elimination of the SA. Dachau was opened for business in March 1933).

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 22:48

Yep, red your predictions have been pretty accurate

  • I wish you had been advising those MPs trying to stop No Deal !

(and I was the one upthread criticising the irresponsible moderates who dismantled some of our safeguards, by bringing in the FTPA & CCA)

SequinnedSlippers · 28/08/2019 22:52

If you tolerate this, then your children will be next

wheresmymojo · 28/08/2019 22:53

Ah....Exhibit D was my post under my old name (umpteennamechanges).

I have to agree that those of us who have been the most pessimistic have been the closest to reality. Sad but true.

I'm usually an optimist too but there aren't many signs for optimism at the moment.

On that front I don't know that I want to depress you with my musings after listening to a couple of political science podcasts lately. Stuff of nightmares, perhaps not now, but things that are almost certainly going to creep in over the next 5 years. A topic for a less busy day though (so not in the next week or so).

Night all. Hopefully we can all get some much needed sleep.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 22:53

"A Very British Coup" is helped by a common British cultural characteristic:

deference to your betters

Maybe all those centuries of being "subjects" instead of citizens

QuentinWinters · 28/08/2019 22:59

The post with the independent link was interesting and coincidentally I read it while listening to Jo Swinson on Newsnight.
I hope Bercow does flick the big Vs at Johnson and open parliament anyway.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 23:00

European Policy Centre, usually close to Brussels:
< and he uses "BJ" too - maybe he's a lurker Wink >

Fabian Zuleeg@FabianZuleeg

Brexit suspicions confirmed:

1) BJ is going for exit before GE

  1. EU won't renegotiate so BJ will go for no deal

3) only HoC could stop him (if willing & able) but he will do whatever he can to make that difficult as seen today

Conclusion: no deal probability 90%+

< that's probably an optimistic % >

wheresmymojo · 28/08/2019 23:00

Just shared on a Lib Dem board...

"Today's political farce reminded me of a quote from Gladiator. So I thought I would update it a little:

Boris knows who Britain is. Britain is the
mob. He will conjure Brexit for them
and they will be distracted. And he
will takes their lives. And he will
take their freedom. And still they
will roar. The beating heart of
Britain isn't the Houses of Parliament.
It's the glamour of the Media. He
will give them death. And they will
love him for it."

Peregrina · 28/08/2019 23:08

Been out all day.

Some thoughts, and a bit of a brain dump. The Queen herself is still popular, so I don’t think the Queen representing the elites vs The People will necessarily work. Charles, William – much less so, but I suspect a lot of Leavers are royalists at heart.

2/3 of Parliament have to vote for an election.
Since Parliament is about to be prorogued - does the GE purdah period apply? This would stop some of BJ’s lies.

What a bunch of fools our regular leavers are: can’t wait to be out, think Johnson is strong. Let’s see if they are saying that when food and medicine shortages happen, and rioting breaks out. I suspect they will be very very quiet. I notice they are not talking about Democracy now, what don’t we understand. They do need to remember “First they came for …… then they came for me.” And then when a Government not of their favourite stripe gets in and tries the same trick they will be calling blue murder.

There is still tension between the Brexit Party/Farage and the Tories. I have no idea how that will play out, but two men who are more interested in willy waving are not going to co-operate easily.

Remainers don’t usually riot, but I could see riots and punch ups happening in the Leaver camps.I have been on all the demos bar the one a few weeks ago. They have all been peaceful. I expect the October one to be ugly.

Re comparisons with Nazi Germany – don’t forget that the Germans were a well educated and cultured populace. Education didn’t save them. Boris Johnson doesn’t lack for (an expensive) education. Nor does Farage.

I suspect that Johnson has now unleashed something he can’t control.

Eventually – ten, twenty years time, when a normal Parliamentary democracy is restored, I expect some much stronger checks and balances to be put in. E.g. a new governing party leader would have to gain the confidence of the House. It would no longer be the gift of the PM to prorogue Parliament. Probably referenda being outlawed.

FractalChaos · 28/08/2019 23:12

Please can someone explain the alternative government thing?

prettybird · 28/08/2019 23:13

Just watched BloJob giving his prorogation announcement/statement (as opposed to listening to him while doing other things).

He was positively smirking while he "explained" Hmm what he was doing. You could actually see him thinking how smart he was being - and positively enjoying that he'd got one over his opponents: fuck Parliament, fuck business, fuck the country and above all, fuck the proles people Angry

woman19 · 28/08/2019 23:15

Petition is over a million now.
petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157
It is all genuinely very interesting, particularly the old thread, thank you red. I have a new meditation thingy which I practised yesterday, in which brexit doesn't exist.

Peregrina · 28/08/2019 23:16

1,017,967 signatures on the petition.

The answer will be as before F* Off.
But still, we have tried.
It needs to be civil disobedience now, silent vigils etc. Regimes get brought down when the people no longer support them. Remember how Caeucescu was astonished when people started shouting back at him. And was eventually tried and executed.

DarkAtEndOfUK · 28/08/2019 23:16

I can't believe the downright lies of all these Tory MPs saying it's nothing to do with Brexit.

Well I can. Unfortunately. But the arrogance of it.

We might have to ask where the army units are stationed and whether leave has been cancelled shortly.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 23:18

View from EU former legal bod:

Jean-Claude PIRIS@piris_jc

Amazing what an unwritten constitution provides for !?

merrymouse · 28/08/2019 23:19

I suspect that Johnson has now unleashed something he can’t control

Agree - He seems to have a strategy to get to ‘No Deal’, but it really isn’t clear how he is going to manage Farage after 1st Nov.

Pissedoffnow · 28/08/2019 23:19

"I expect some much stronger checks and balances to be put in"

I think what terrifies me is how easy it is to convince people that the checks and balances put in place to protect us are The Enemy. The judiciary? Enemies of the People. The Press? Disgusting Fake News Media. Parliament? Remoaner traitors, etc.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 23:20

😤

Westminstenders: Prorogation