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Brexit

Westminstenders: Prorogation

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:10

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

OP posts:
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BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 17:28

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/4656461/ruth-davidson-quit-scottish-tory-leader-boris-johnson/

RUTH Davidson is set to quit as the Tories' leader in Scotland, senior sources revealed today.

Insiders said the Scottish Conservatives boss - who became a mum in October - is to stand down due to pressures of motherhood and
because she's "increasingly at odds" with Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
...
“'Ruth will make her position clear in due course. There will be no further comment this evening."

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 17:29

snap !

wheresmymojo · 28/08/2019 17:31

Double snap....I was just coming on to say 'Woaaaaaah...Ruth Davidson'.

At least she's sticking to her values which is more than can be said for some Amber, Nicky, et al.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 17:31

No change from the EU side - I expect their eyes are still rolled back at the latest Uk news !

Michel Barnier@MichelBarnier

In Copenhagen today. Good meetings w/ @Statsmin Mette Frederiksen and foreign Minister @JeppeKofod
.
#EU27 always ready to examine UK proposals, as long as they are compatible w/ Withdrawal Agreement, GFA and integrity of Single Market.

TokyoSushi · 28/08/2019 17:33

Yep, Sky News saying Ruth Davidson is standing down avd will make a, statement in Edinburgh tomorrow.

prettybird · 28/08/2019 17:33

Just coming on to add the same thing about Ruth Davidson, which is now Breaking News on Sky.

It was a bit suspicious when she was "unavailable" all day Hmm

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 17:34

Expected this since she had her child tbh

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 17:34

....and good luck to her

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 17:35

Do you suffer from unexplained memory loss, Amber ? Hmm
Or do you have a fantasy of being part of the "Stuart Kings"

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall

During the leadership contest I asked @AmberRuddHR^ if she thought it would be acceptable to prorogue parliament in controversial circumstances.^

"No." She said. "We are not the Stuart kings."

wheresmymojo · 28/08/2019 17:35

interesting quotes from Matt Hancock, Amber Rudd, Andrea Leadsom and Nicki Morgan

Yep...I went to check out their twitter accounts and...total silence.

I will give them the benefit of the doubt until end of tomorrow that they need to think things through, but so far absolutely zero comment.

Violetparis · 28/08/2019 17:36

Wonder if Ruth Davidson will remain as an MP ?

Lisette1940 · 28/08/2019 17:39

Hoop perhaps she might adopt Colin Clark and take him with her. He's the Conservative MP for Gordon, my area.

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 17:41

You can live in hope....

Lisette1940 · 28/08/2019 17:42

Hoooo sorry autocorrect

TokyoSushi · 28/08/2019 17:42

I wondered this too @wheresmymojo a lot of cabinet very quiet except for BJ's BFFS, Cleverly and the like.

BubblesBuddy · 28/08/2019 17:46

MPs (MSPs) always say they are stepping down to “spend more time with their family”. It’s rubbish of course! She can perfectly well manage her one baby! She’s going because of Johnson. I’m pleased she has morals! There are some decent Conservatives.

woman19 · 28/08/2019 17:47

Tbh the remain camp has pretty much failed to win over anyone...including remainers

Yup. Definitely their fault.

I blame the Windrush and Grenfell survivors too. And the 120 000 who didn't try harder to live through the current welfare state cuts.

Myriade · 28/08/2019 17:48

People with jobs & houses & savings don't, unless their lives are threatened, not their livelihoods"

I include the lives of loved ones

People in the Home counties can go and buy their insulin or heart pills over the internet. At a price but I'm sure they wont bat an eyelid to do that. You only ave to look at how much they are willing to pay for health NOW (eg going to see complementary therapists etc...)
(They would if goods are stopped at the border by No deal I suppose)

Myriade · 28/08/2019 17:49

Remainers AND leavers are at fault.

Sometimes for different reasons but both for their arrogance, putting party first and their sheer willingness to try and crush the opposition, seemignly forgetting they are trying to crush half of the population.

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 17:51

DH just hung up the phone on me saying I was a lunatic because I wasnt surprised how this was playing out and its because not enough people had the imagination to see it was likely.

James Patrick @j_ames
Walked into that fucker, all of you.

A huge amount of strategic mismanagement and stupidity got everyone to back themselves into obvious traps over a prorogue past Brexit which wasn’t going to happen.

Tried to warn you.

Enjoy the consequences of error. They’re all that’s left.

Just going to leave yesterday’s intel briefing I sent round yesterday morning at work here. Call it a placemarker.

Enjoy the false hope which got you here. And make sure you keep firing the bullets at the messengers.

The old 1👆2👇

Sebastian Payne @SebastianePayne
🚨 No.10 threatening an election🚨

"If MPs pass a no confidence vote next week then we won’t resign. We won’t recommend another government, we’ll dissolve parliament, call an election between November 1-5 and there’ll be zero chance of Grieve legislation,” says senior official.

James Patrick @j_ames
And here’s the knockout:

What you should notice is that currently some of the party/party votes are directly interchangeable. This most effects the Greens and Lib Dems in the absence of a solid demographic shift indicator (such as the BXP/Tory one which solidified more clearly at Brecon.

What I will add, however, is that 230 seats have a margin of less than 10% either way on the leave/remain divide. So everything is to play for.

But those marginal seats aren’t the ones others I’ve seen are modelling around.

That sounds like the remain side are going for marginals like the Democrats did. But all the action is actually around the Trump Rust Belt States... Or Johnson Industrial and Coastal Wastelands...

Watch out for it.

Westminstenders: Prorogation
OP posts:
woman19 · 28/08/2019 17:51

People in the Home counties can go and buy their insulin or heart pills over the internet

Yup. People in the Home counties. I blame them too.

And all the EU mums and kids, and Windrush elders under threat of deportation or in detention centres.

Many of them are from the Home Counties.

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 17:54

woman

I remember the remain leaflet landing on my doormat pre ref.

I think you know that I am an ardent remainer?

It was a piece of ill considered, poorly written, glossy shit.

It made me SO angry!!

How many waverers voted leave after reading that utter tripe???

And as for the so called opposition...3 years! They've had 3 fucking YEARS!!!

Boris must be laughing so much today.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 28/08/2019 17:54

Doesn't the internet work outside the Home Counties?

Not that I can get my hrt on the internet. Nowhere has it.

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 17:55

...and Corbyn actually being an opposition leader has come rather late in the day, hasn't t it?

The twat.

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 17:57

Well, I'm not in the home counties, but I can assure you that there is no hrt to be had!

Dh is off to singapore soon...need to figure out if I can hrt and my sisters diabetes meds over there...

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