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Brexit

Westminstenders: Prorogation

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:10

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
18
Piggywaspushed · 28/08/2019 17:57

It's official. There are no poor people in the Home Counties. In fact, there aren't even any moderately well off people.

woman19 · 28/08/2019 18:03

From the rest of James Patrick's article. red referenced there.
smiu.live/2019/08/21/future-parliament-what-the-polls-are-saying-august-2019/
It wasn't the weakness of the opposition parties who let hitler in(they in fact performed rather well), it was the lazy daft entitled populace who allowed it. Smile

And the tragic idiocy of nationalism. In all its disguises.

Westminstenders: Prorogation
OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 28/08/2019 18:04

Well I picked the wrong time to give into my lack of sleep over the last few days. Woke up to find it so much worse. Bollocks.

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 18:05

Woman19 strategically the remain side just aren't hitting the right notes.

That's the problem. They didn't win the ref for a reason. And they are using the same electoral and political strategies not realising the political landscape has changed. They are playing the game by the rules they know, not realising that the game changed.

I am reflective of two friends who are most definitely liberals but have voted tory for many years. They don't like Johnson but at the same time they still want strong leadership. They don't want to leave, but they just want Brexit over as they view the uncertainty as damaging as no deal.

Or my friend who is utterly the most champain socialist you could ever hope to meet... Thinks she's working class but is the very definition of upper middle class now... Staunch Remainer, loved the EU. Who now goes 'fuck em, let them have what they want. Why should I care anymore?'

Or DH who is the most pro EU of the lot, who says no deal isn't going to happen. Always said we'd never leave. Until today when he admits no deal its 99% likely ("but you don't know what's going to happen even now" and apparently I'm a lunatic for having had a bleak view throughout). He goes, 'well we will be OK with no deal, regardless, its just we know lots of pe people who won't' with a surprising amount of indifference though sad.

He thought May's deal was the best we'd get but thought we shouldn't settle for it and should push to remain...

I'm just left stood listening to this thinking, if that's what they are saying, then no wonder things are where they are, and I can see that Johnson probably will win an election even if no deal is truly awful.

It's the utter indifference that's the issue.

People are so done with Brexit, they don't care anymore.

OP posts:
Hoooo · 28/08/2019 18:07

Oh, come ON!

Corbyn is a Lexiter!

His luke warm "opposition" has been a gift to the far right.

woman19 · 28/08/2019 18:07

I was joking about the 'home counties' I don't intend to get into a regionalist morality fight. They are as idiotic and wrong as nationalism. Most of us in the 'home counties' are economic migrants from the 'north' or the beautiful non british world.

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 18:09

Yep.

Dh isn't saying no deal won't happen now.

bellinisurge · 28/08/2019 18:10

How long before we get Government advice to citizens on No Deal. Even just online. Then we'll know they mean it. And if we don't get it, we'll know they don't give a shit about any of us. Or they don't mean it.

tobee · 28/08/2019 18:12

So who will take over from Ruth Davidson? Someone in line with Johnson? Or what?

merrymouse · 28/08/2019 18:17

They don't want to leave, but they just want Brexit over as they view the uncertainty as damaging as no deal.

I agree that uncertainty is damaging, however, I don't understand why people would think that 'No Deal' - not agreeing anything with Europe - brings more certainty.

The idea that 'No Deal' in anyway enables 'getting on with Brexit' seems a bigger lie than the lie on the side of the bus.

It's not as though Johnson has actually clarified how he intends to deal with the NI border or food standards on 1st November. He has just waffled on about swimming around a rock.

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 18:23

Woman19 my last post was cross posted with yours.

But that's literally the same stuff I'm hearing.

Remember at the EU elections the vote for Labour and the Tories was low turnout and both parties had 'other reasons' listed as the main reason voted for them. It was only the LDs and Brexit Party which listed Brexit as a reason to vote. And presumably drove up turnout.

Thus a GE will be won or lost on other issues with indifferent voters...

Note this tweet from earlier today

Laura Kuenssberg@bbclaurak
Senior No 10 source says 'this is about the NHS and violent crime, not Brexit, and the courts have no locus to interfere in a bog standard Queen's Speech process' ....

When the news first broke. (Many remain twitterati were annoyed that it wasn't attributed to Cummings as the protocol of the media is not to name party spokesmen).

Every thing Johnson is doing domestically is pitching policy to Brexit indifferants whilst following his no deal strategy. None of these promises will be seen through by the time of an election - he just has to say the right things and look like he's going to do things. It's the Bus Redux.

Only 7% of voters voted in the referendum for EU related reasons afterall...

OP posts:
Hazardtired · 28/08/2019 18:25

Noon o'clock gin has warn off now on to teatime gin. Fuck fuck fuck has been replaced by cunt cunt cunt.

Gin
Hoooo · 28/08/2019 18:26

Stay drunk haz
That's my advice.

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 18:27

Things are not good chez hoooo.

I have sent dh to the shops for chocolate and cake.

I am a donkey woman on the edge! 😬

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 18:28

haz We can shout profanities at the moon whilst dancing/scoffing/falking over...

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 18:28

Falking???

Ahem. Falling.

woman19 · 28/08/2019 18:31

Woman19 strategically the remain side just aren't hitting the right notes
There is no 'remain side'.
That's what makes it such a tidy win for the other side, and their bosses.

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 28/08/2019 18:32

Well I picked the wrong time to give into my lack of sleep over the last few days. Woke up to find it so much worse

I think it would be best for the country if you remain permanently sleep deprived ohlook Grin

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 18:36

Woman, they certainly are 'taking back control' that's for sure.

OP posts:
Myriade · 28/08/2019 18:37

@woman19, I agree. the Remain side was often more of 'im terrified of what will happen if we are leaving' than a 'look at how wonderful the EU is and what it did amd will do for us'.
Thats also why it failed. During the referendum and after it.

wheresmymojo · 28/08/2019 18:37

I'm in the Home Counties. It's my fault. I did it. I did it all. 🙋🏻‍♀️

I'm actually the puppeteer behind the puppeteer. I'm the one pulling Cumming's strings.

merrymouse · 28/08/2019 18:37

Every thing Johnson is doing domestically is pitching policy to Brexit indifferants whilst following his no deal strategy.

Isn't he taking a huge gamble that 'No Deal' would have so little impact that people would remain indifferent?

Myriade · 28/08/2019 18:39

Every thing Johnson is doing domestically is pitching policy to Brexit indifferants whilst following his no deal strategy. None of these promises will be seen through by the time of an election - he just has to say the right things and look like he's going to do things.

Yep. Why change tactics when they worked so well the first time?

He is also very good at saying one thing and then its opposite a few days later (sometimes the same day!). It confuses people but also allows everyone to chose to remember the bits they like.
eg: EU ctizens will automatically be allowed to stay followed by no legislation and then End of FoM on the 31st October.

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 18:41

mojo I knew it!!!!

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

TheABC · 28/08/2019 18:43

Right now, I am getting drunk.
We are very, very screwed.

To quote our esteemed leader: Fuck politics.