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Brexit

Westminstenders: Prorogation

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:10

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
18
Hoooo · 28/08/2019 16:42

violet
Tbh the remain camp has pretty much failed to win over anyone...including remainers.

FractalChaos · 28/08/2019 16:44

The woman on sky is holding an umbrella - my vision isnt good enough to see if it is raining or is it a nod to HK?

Motheroffourdragons · 28/08/2019 16:45

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 16:47

It's a long-term strategy for the Tory right to move away from the suburban middle-class and get back to Disraeli's unlikely alliance of the wealthy property-owners and the patriotic salt-of-the-earth white van types who can be co-opted in their own subservience with a bit of flag and xenophobia.

Sort of invert the middle-class bulge which put - and kept - Thatcher and the Tories in for 18 years. Turn it into an hourglass.

CatherineOfAragonsPrayerBook · 28/08/2019 16:50

DGRossetti It should be a good production. On a lighter side did you ever what the ROME series? Truly excellent. Unfortunately it got pulled due to production costs.

Listening to various people on LBC trying to spin it as 'remainers moaning' and 'Any conservative who doesn't agree isn't a real Tory.'Hmm

CatherineOfAragonsPrayerBook · 28/08/2019 16:50

watch!

Violetparis · 28/08/2019 16:51

Hoo so true, pleased we agree on something Smile

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 16:55

Tbh the remain camp has pretty much failed to win over anyone...including remainers

Damn straight.

OP posts:
Hoooo · 28/08/2019 16:56

:)

tobee · 28/08/2019 16:57

Thanks Red , that's what I thought, hence my many question marks. I was referring to what Lewis Goodall wrote in analysis on Sky News and I didn't get what he meant!

tobee · 28/08/2019 16:59

And I think Johnson will do exactly what he and whoever's paying the bucks wants!

prettybird · 28/08/2019 17:01

But DGR - ultimately Caesar was assassinated Confused

But while we are drawing parallels, he did bring to an end the "democratic" Roman Republic and brought about, through his successors, the Roman Empire.

I think some Brexiters are still thinking along Empire terms Hmm

MockersthefeMANist · 28/08/2019 17:07

I am wondering about what Messrers Grieve, Starmer, Cherry and Partners, attorneys at law, will make of this, with specific reference to Sections 20 and 21 of the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, which allows for parliament once proroged to be unproroged in a national emergency.

CatherineOfAragonsPrayerBook · 28/08/2019 17:10

interesting quotes from Matt Hancock, Amber Rudd, Andrea Leadsom and Nicki Morgan about prolouging parliament before becoming part of the cabinet. They all thought it was absolutely outrageous. But can't be got hold of today.Hmm

CatherineOfAragonsPrayerBook · 28/08/2019 17:11

proroguing!

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 17:12

But DGR - ultimately Caesar was assassinated

Yes. But it was too little too late. This is a man whose idea of "mercy" was to slit the throats of his pirate captors (and I bet Boris can bear a grudge like no one else) when he crucified them.

Piling probably unjustifiable comparison upon unjustifiable comparison, could this be Boris Alessia moment ? Which no matter what your views on the rights and wrongs does stand as one of the most impressive battles/sieges in history. Although I guess that depends on not being a Gaul.

And there is footage of Boris at the statue of Vercingetorix, for even more painful symbolism ....

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 17:13

Yeah, I hated the FTPA as soon as it was proposed
The whole aim - of Nick Clegg & the LDems - was to keep a govt in office even if a majority of MPs wanted to bring it down

It is never a good idea to make it more difficult to remove a government

Naked shorterm party benefit before longterm dangers to the country

mother can't forgive the LDems for the student fees; I can't forgive them for the FTPA

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 17:16

mother can't forgive the LDems for the student fees; I can't forgive them for the FTPA

Well still trying to play the part of a grown up I can't say "can't forgive". I backed it at the time. In hindsight it was a dreadful idea, but expert advice was ignored.

Violetparis · 28/08/2019 17:20

Ruth Davidson apparently set to quit. I'm not getting my work done today !

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 17:21

Mockers afaik, only the govt can invoke the Civil Contingencies Act, not the Opposition

There would be one hell of a mess if we have an alternative Parliament invoking or revoking the CCA, in opposition to the govt

The CCA is another example of a really dangerous law brought in by arrogant fools.

Its only real protection is that it has to be renewed every 30 days by Parliament

FTPA, CCA - these were brought in by moderates, not the far right
Irresponsible politicians who arrogantly tore away some of the key protections this country has and made it easierfor the hard right to take over.

Populists don't have to be clever when moderrates are so stupid
and as we have seen for the last 3 years, unable to compromise and work together

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 17:23

DG Maybe "forgive" is the wrong word
more exactly:
I can't trust them not to do something else horribly dangerous, just for short term party advantage

Hazardtired · 28/08/2019 17:25

Ruth Davidson is alright for a tory scores high on likability factor for me. Can appreciate that she communicates well even if I don't agree with what she says ifykwim.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 17:26

A couple of days go, Ruth Davidson was tweeting about thirsty baby hedgehogs Hmm

I wonder if BJ gave her a heads up before the announcement, or if it was a shock for her too

May did at least keep RD in the loop

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 17:26

I can't trust them not to do something else horribly dangerous, just for short term party advantage

That could be carved in stone from the days of the interregnum ... plus ca change I guess.

Lisette1940 · 28/08/2019 17:27

Davidson due to quit supposedly due to the pressures of motherhood according to the Scottish Sun WinkGrin

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