Arbitration needed!

[Bearbehind]

bellin and I have had this argument many times and both think we’re right so I’m looking for arbitration! 😂

I think NI becoming a special economic zone won’t happen because the Tories won’t put it to a vote as they’d lose the support of the DUP and thus their working majority

bellini thinks the Tories would be prepared to put this to the vote because stopping no deal is more important than anything else

Who’s right?

Don't see how it's mythical if it has been getting support as a way forward on here. Is it mythical because you disagree with it?

bellini please stop making this personal

Support on here god it means nothing but most importantly your arguments for the circumstances in which it could happen still don’t stack up

I agree it could be a possible short term solution if it weren’t for the DUP but every scenario I can see after a NI only solution leads to the Tories losing power

I disagree with it because I think your logic is flawed and neither you nor anyone else has outlined why that’s not the case sufficiently enough to convince me otherwise

I don’t just disagree with it on principle because you said it!

For it not god it!

"I don’t just disagree with it on principle because you said it!"
You are coming across the contrary. If anyone else says the same as me you don't lay into them with your caps lock on etc etc. as you have done every time I post.

I’ve used caps lock twice I think and both times were because you keep saying the DUP vote on this subject wouldn’t matter because of cross party support but completely ignoring the fact this would lose the Tories their working majority on everything else, despite lots of people explaining this to you.

But you don't get that C&S didn't deliver WA. Shove enough money to the DUP and they will pretend C&S is still there. As has already happened because they voted against WA every single time but stayed in C&S. it is worth nothing.
If Johnson can deliver Brexit without DUP support, and I think he can with an NI only backstop type thing, that would be enough for most Tories and Brexiteers. Particularly as no one knows what Corbyn 's position and therefore the Labour Party's position is.
I get your view. Don't be so patronising just because you disagree.

There are currently 13 Conservative MPs in Scotland - up 12 from the previous 4 elections (and 13 from 1997 ) - and current polling suggests that they will enjoy (at least, the Scots will ) a similar doing wipeout at the next GE.

....but it is extremely rare for the Scottish MPs to make a difference in determining which colour Government is in power - at least, not a stable Government that stays the course. I was about to say "With the exception of the current government" .....but then I remembered

Don't be so patronising just because you disagree.

I’m not being patronising, your just being spikey in every post you make now

The DUP, whatever you may think of them, could never be expected to agree to something that means NI is treated differently to the rest of the UK, it’s one of their fundamental principles (except when it suits them of course but this was clearly not one of those times)

If you don’t see there’s a massive difference between losing support on 1 vote and losing the whole C&S agreement then we’re destined to never ever agree

but it is extremely rare for the Scottish MPs to make a difference in determining which colour Government is in power - at least, not a stable Government that stays the course. I was about to say "With the exception of the current government" .....but then I remembered

It’s certainly mad times pretty which is why I cannot see the Tories giving up their working majority lightly because the outcome of a GE is too unpredictable

...but they don't really have a "working majority" even now , at least, not in practice, hence them avoiding bringing any legislation in front of the House, which is part of the pickle we are in

It’s better than nothing though! It’s all that’s keeping them in government

I guess the natural extension to this discussion is what set of circumstances do the Tories plan to create in order to win a GE

I'm in NI and favour bellini's suggestion. Although it's not really bellini's, it's what everyone in NI thought would happen the morning after the referendum.

I think Bear has some points about the parliamentary maths, but I think this from whyamidoingthis is spot on: I absolutely agree with you @Bearbehind, that the tory party and power are the priorities of this government. However, a brexit with NI backstop followed by a very quick GE, where the tories have delivered brexit and avoided a no deal brexit is likely to give them a majority, given Corbyn's unelectability.

Bear I think anyone advocating No Deal "just to get it done" is doing something unforgivable. I think we should all be defending the GFA to the last. Advocating a "burn it all down, build it all up again" approach when it's not your part of the world that's going to be (literally!) burned down is disgusting. I can't tell you how angry it makes me.

mindy it’s not my intention to make you angry - I never wanted to leave in the first place.

This discussion is about what is possible in practice now.

If I was advocating any solution it would be revoke but it’s not going to happen.

Neither do I believe a sea border is going to happen, like you said because of the parliamentary maths.

Unfortunately, if you take it as given that the only thing the Tories really care about is staying in power then I think it’s quite likely they will call a GE for immediately after 31st October and go for no deal on that date.

I just don’t see how anything else keeps them in government - how would they have the numbers without Scotland and the hard core leave areas who would support the Brexit Party following anything other than no deal.

There's a difference between saying "I'm worried Johnson really is leaving us to No Deal" because of the numbers, and advocating for it by saying things like:

No, I think there’s no other option that’s viable expect for no deal and repair the damage

The more the public take this attitude then the more it makes it ok for Johnson to do exactly that. We should all be saying loud and clear that neither No Deal nor jeopardising the GFA are ok.

But the outcome is the same mindy

I don’t want no deal but I don’t think anything else is viable.

I’m a realist, I don’t see the point in just worrying about something - if there is really no other option that can actually happen then we need to accept that and move on.

If there is another option then great but it has to entirely remove the possibility of no deal, not just kick the can down the road

All this talk today on the news about parliament blocking no deal is just going to make those who want it more determined

If reports today are to be believed the Tory Brexiteers are now doing what they were always going to do IMO which is saying it’s not just the backstop which is the problem with the WA anyway

Every possibility to stop this must be explored

I'll be your arbiter. I agree with Bellini. BJ will spend a while pretending to think and then come out with the idea of a "special arrangement" for NI, slightly amend the WA, give it a new name and then call a GE having "delivered" Brexit. The campaign will be full of the relationship with the US, the announcement of more money for policing and schools, and a tax cut of fuel. And I think a lot of people with buy it. The rabid No Dealers aren't actually that common so once that's all done the Brexit party will be as relevant as UKIP ever were.

Ok lisa so how does that keep the Tories in power?

If you accept all they care about is that then this is their get out

With the added advantage that Farage is hoisted by his own petard as none would vote for the Brexit party if no deal had already happened

Given the BXP are still on 15% despite no dealer Boris, i'm not sure they will go away, they are much more disciplined force than ukip ever where.

Brexit will prove to be a disaster and farage will be there to pick up the pieces, blaming the tories and the remain elites!!!???

I think his long term goal is to replace the Tories as the main opposition, anything other than a revoke helps him to his goal.

Whatever the merits of the Irish sea border, it won't happen, it means a GE, Scotland getting indie 2 & a different result!

You realise the name of the Tory party is the Conservative and UNIONIST Party to give it it's full name.

No Tory leader wants to be the leader to oversee the breakup of the very union they seek to hold together

The Unionists referred to in the name are Trimble's lot not the DUP.

Whatever the merits of the Irish sea border, it won't happen, it means a GE, Scotland getting indie 2 & a different result!

Agreed

Why are you all so certain that Scotland would vote for independence and, if it did, why shouldn't it?

The Unionists referred to in the name are Trimble's lot not the DUP.

That doesn’t matter - they still don’t want to just govern England.