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Brexit
Original poster

Arbitration needed!

159 replies

Bearbehind · 27/08/2019 09:31

bellin and I have had this argument many times and both think we’re right so I’m looking for arbitration! 😂

I think NI becoming a special economic zone won’t happen because the Tories won’t put it to a vote as they’d lose the support of the DUP and thus their working majority

bellini thinks the Tories would be prepared to put this to the vote because stopping no deal is more important than anything else

Who’s right?

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whyamidoingthis · 27/08/2019 09:42

God knows but the argument between the 2 of you has become really tedious.

If I had to choose, I would go with @belinni as there is a reasonable chance that the non-tory supporters of brexit and those who are seeking to accept this to avoid a no-deal would be willing to vote for it, effectively making the DUP vote irrelevant.

bellinisurge · 27/08/2019 09:45

My position is this: put a border in the sea and make NI a special economic zone or just have an NI backstop, call it what you want. An NI special economic zone allows all kinds of fudge.
It has never been tested in Parliament; I think enough Tory MPs and enough Labour MPs would go for it despite DUP objections.
It is not WA (which, incidentally the current PM voted for to get Brexit). It does not have the all UK element that Brexiteers hate. Most people in mainland UK don't give a shit about NI. It has majority support in a recent NI poll.
If it doesn't work, fuck it. Try something else to stop No Deal.

bellinisurge · 27/08/2019 09:46

@whyamidoingthis , I agree. It is tedious.

Original poster
Bearbehind · 27/08/2019 09:56

I agree that arguing on every thread about this is tedious - that’s why I’ve moved it here

I genuinely don’t understand how someone can acknowledge the Tories will do anything to avoid a Corbyn government whilst simultaneously insisting they’d give up their working majority just to get this vote through

Totally happy to admit I’m wrong if that logic can be explained

I also get that people want to avoid no deal but clinging onto something that can’t or won’t happen is no different to Leavers insisting we can still have our cake and eat it IMO

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Original poster
Bearbehind · 27/08/2019 09:58

there is a reasonable chance that the non-tory supporters of brexit and those who are seeking to accept this to avoid a no-deal would be willing to vote for it, effectively making the DUP vote irrelevant.

I don’t disagree that cross party support could get this vote through and make the DUP vote irrelevant

My point is that if that happened the Tories would lose the support of the DUP on every other vote and thus their working majority - which is why I don’t believe it will happen.

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bellinisurge · 27/08/2019 10:02

DUP confidence and supply counts for nothing on Brexit. If it did, WA would have passed.

Original poster
Bearbehind · 27/08/2019 10:07

It’s not about just Brexit though!

I don’t know how many times I have to say that

My whole point is about the fact the Tories can’t afford to lose the DUP C&S on everything else because of one vote on Brexit

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bellinisurge · 27/08/2019 10:09

And I think they can get Brexit through Parliament if they put an NI only backstop forward.
You don't. Does it really need a special thread?

Yewtown · 27/08/2019 10:12

I think it is the only solution. If Blojob gets his stupid Brexit then he will call a general election in the hope of getting a majority and thus nullify the DUP stranglehold.

whyamidoingthis · 27/08/2019 10:13

I absolutely agree with you @Bearbehind, that the tory party and power are the priorities of this government. However, a brexit with NI backstop followed by a very quick GE, where the tories have delivered brexit and avoided a no deal brexit is likely to give them a majority, given Corbyn's unelectability.

Original poster
Bearbehind · 27/08/2019 10:21

followed by a very quick GE, where the tories have delivered brexit and avoided a no deal brexit

This is the bit I don’t get

How do you think the Tories would win a GE if they’ve gone for the NI only option?

They’d lose all their seats in Scotland plus all the hard core leave seats to the Brexit Party so they end up, at best in a Brexit Party coalition, who would push for no deal again

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bellinisurge · 27/08/2019 10:23

How many seats do the Tories have in Scotland? I live in a big Leave area. They just want it done.

Original poster
Bearbehind · 27/08/2019 10:27

I live in a big Leave area. They just want it done.

But the NI option isn’t it ‘done’

It the start of the break up if the union which changes the dynamic of party politics - who’d win a GE is far from certain

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bellinisurge · 27/08/2019 10:30

The union breaks up if that's what Scotland or Wales wants. Why should they be forced to stay? Why is it a foregone conclusion that they would want to break up the Union. What are you afraid of asking them what they want?

Original poster
Bearbehind · 27/08/2019 10:34

I think the Tories have more chance of winning a GE following no deal because they’d wipe out the Brexit Party as it would no longer have a reason to exist so the vote would no longer be split

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Original poster
Bearbehind · 27/08/2019 10:38

The union breaks up if that's what Scotland or Wales wants. Why should they be forced to stay? Why is it a foregone conclusion that they would want to break up the Union. What are you afraid of asking them what they want?

You’re missing my point again - the long term repercussions are one thing but what’s more important for the purposes of this discussion is the short term affect the NI option would have on an immediate GE

I’m saying I think it’s less likely to result in the Tories winning, certainly an outright win, than no deal is hence there’s no incentive for the Tories to do it as they lose power

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bellinisurge · 27/08/2019 10:39

The Tories wiped out UKIP by including the referendum in their manifesto. If we Leave, thanks to the Tories, do you really think there is enough electoral support for No Deal ( after Brexit has been delivered) to translate into MPs?

BlackeyedGruesome · 27/08/2019 10:42

Eh? It is not an argument, they are two different views and no-one can know which will work until they are tried.

Original poster
Bearbehind · 27/08/2019 10:49

do you really think there is enough electoral support for No Deal ( after Brexit has been delivered) to translate into MPs?

Yes if it’s immediately after no deal before the proverbial has hit the fan and the effects have been felt by Joe Bloggs - I think that is the Tory plan

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Original poster
Bearbehind · 27/08/2019 10:50

It is not an argument, they are two different views and no-one can know which will work until they are tried.

But my point is this will not be tried because it would lose the Tories power

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MysteryTripAgain · 27/08/2019 10:50

Scotland had an independence referendum in 2014 less than 2 years before the EU referendum in 2016. They voted to remain in UK by 55%. How much of the vote was swayed by Cameron's statement that remaining in UK was sure to remain in EU will never be known with accuracy. However, that a large majority, 62%, voted to remain in EU would suggest that some were swayed by Cameron's comments.

Although the turnout in the 2016 referendum was much lower than that on 2014 and the actual physical votes to remain in the EU were less than that who voted remain in the UK.

I think UK will break up eventually. Just another example of what has been happening over decades as colonies voted for independence. Brexit may just be the catalyst that speeds up the process in which it happens.

As for the border I think it is being used more for political and economic gain as opposed to genuine concerns of GFA. EU hopes it will block UK's departure from the EU or by a WA that lock UK into a customs union, but in which UK would have no say.

Also EU has a trade surplus with UK of 64 Billion (Germany's trade surplus of 21 Billion is a third of the total UK trade deficit). Add that to fact that UK is the third largest donor to the EU then it is very easy to see why Germany don't want UK to leave.

A deal is best, but every suggestion so far has had opposition.

Original poster
Bearbehind · 27/08/2019 10:53

do you really think there is enough electoral support for No Deal ( after Brexit has been delivered) to translate into MPs?

Added to that would be all the people, probably me included, who’d vote Tory to make them own this mess and destroy them- I think they’d win by a landslide

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bellinisurge · 27/08/2019 10:57

So you'd vote Tory for Tories to "own this mess"Hmmand you want no Deal so people will get the suffering they deserve Hmm. Not very logical, is it.
What's your plan for NI. Which didn't vote Leave. And which would be totally screwed by No Deal?

Original poster
Bearbehind · 27/08/2019 11:01

So you'd vote Tory for Tories to "own this mess"

Yep - why should any other party have to deal with the fall out

you want no Deal so people will get the suffering they deserve

No, I think there’s no other option that’s viable expect for no deal and repair the damage

Not very logical, is it.

It’s totally logical to me - it’s pointless hoping for a mythical solution that doesn’t exist

What's your plan for NI. Which didn't vote Leave. And which would be totally screwed by No Deal?

I don’t have one and I can’t magically create one that is viable no matter how much I might want to

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bellinisurge · 27/08/2019 11:12

Don't see how it's mythical if it has been getting support as a way forward on here. Is it mythical because you disagree with it?

I'm a general prepper. It can all go to shit and I'll be as ok as I can be. But it don't want it to. And I'm trying to suggest a compromise. I can't compromise with no Dealers like you but not everyone is a No Dealer.