Do you think we definitely WILL leave the EU on October 31st 2019?

[elprup]

As it says in the title really - do you think we will definitely leave the EU on that date or do you think we'll still be "in" on November 1st?

Also, do you think we will leave with a deal or without a deal - and will Boris still be PM by then?

I'm just wondering how people will think the next three months are going to pan out, basically.

I've never understood that. If hrs e wanted to be pm, lead the country out of the EU why didn't he run back in 2016? Why did he cause the chaos and run away only to return three years later

Why did he cause the chaos and run away only to return three years later

To prove to the other Eton/Oxford PM's who were before him that he is the best.

In the fullness of time (soon I hope) Johnson will go down in history as yet another failed Old Etonian PM - Cameron, Eden - no more need be said. McMillan was OK I think and Douglas-Home in office too long to be anything but a forgotten nonentity. The postwar slate doesn't look too good.

He ran away because he didn't want to be the person left holding the baby. Now he can pretend he is dealing with the mess of negotiations by someone who didn't believe enough in Britain. Not like how brilliant things would have gone had he been the PM involved. Might even say he wasn't in the cabinet at any stage. Or walked away from it.

Now he can pretend he is dealing with the mess of negotiations by someone who didn't believe enough in Britain

True. Every UK government I can think of has blamed the previous government and makes the same statement;

"look at where we had to start from because of previous government"

"look at where we had to start from because of previous government"

That works when it's a change of Party, but Johnson is nominally at least in the same party as May.

Not just the same party. Johnson was part of the previous Government, in Cabinet, before he went for cover. Will he make a pig's ear achieve as much in his elevation to PM as he did while Foreign Secretary .

I was pleased to hear Hammond this morning and Bercow yesterday, i hope there are enough Cons to halt Johnson/Cummings

But i have grave reservations about Labour being serious about stopping No-Deal let alone No-Brexit.
Any party that calls for reform of Grouse shooting and today, demands a review into A level predicted grades at this moment in time, is unfit for any form of office.

i don't think it is going to happen, I've thought that for about a year now.

Any party that calls for reform of Grouse shooting and today, demands a review into A level predicted grades at this moment in time, is unfit for any form of office.
Agree.They are fiddling while Rome burns because they don't want to make a decision either way on Brexit. The A Level predicted grades issue has been talked about every year since I did my A Levels nearly 30 years ago.

Why did he cause the chaos and run away only to return three years later

Because the whole idea was to make May the sacrificial virgin faced with achieving the impossible. Once she failed (let down by her own MPs who voted against the WA) Johnson would come galloping in on his white unicorn at the last moment to save the day.

Just catching up on the thread

I saw the Enola Gay last week.
Sobering
The US Government do not make light of what it did.
MN posters certainly should not.

Sadly I am pretty certain that we will crash out without a deal on October 31st.
I also believe that Trump will get re elected next year.
Putin will be delighted.

Nope I don't think we will.

Why is that, @ombre123 ?

Yes I think we will leave on 31st and with no deal

At this point we've got two possible outcomes, No Deal or No Brexit. And I don't want it to be No Deal

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269499 Here is a petition to request a Brexit Deadline extension

Started today and 14 signatures, are you Martin Perry???

If you aren’t why have you signed to extend the deadline for a deal if you think there are only two options. If remain is what you want start/sign a petition that says just that.

The attached is just another 6 months of no mans land. Not helpful.

All petitions need to start somewhere, if no one supported any petition with less than 1,000 signatures then none would ever get any signatures.

The only argument left in support of Brexit is the "will of the people".
The most likely course of events to cancel Brexit is another referendum - which dozens and dozens of polls have shown continually increasing support for Remain.
But there's not enough time for another Referendum before the Brexit deadline so we need another extension.

With an extension we've then got scope for a general election or two. A vote of no confidence. Some more indicative votes and hopefully a path to calling for another referendum.

But there's not enough time for another Referendum before the Brexit deadline so we need another extension.

You will not get an extension unless it is specifically for a referendum or an election.

"You will not get an extension unless it is specifically for a referendum or an election."

We should have both.
A Vote Of No Confidence in Boris.
A Government Of National Unity for just long enough to request an extension and organise a Referendum.
When the result is reached there should be a new General Election to decide which party digs us out of the mess the first referendum got us into.

But first we need that extension.
The EU did say after the last extension that there won't be another one unless there is a clear path to resolving the deadlock e.g. another referendum or general election. But that was under May and a lot has changed since then, there's a new Prime Minister and a threat of a Vote Of No Confidence coming in the next couple of weeks. The EU have already said they will grant Boris an extension if he asks for one.

Which is why there's a petition to encourage him to ask for one.

The EU will extend.

Blowjob is just waiting for the opposition to force him to ask for an extension, so that he can get off the no-deal hook while blaming someone else.

I find it hard to believe that Brexiters are taken in. Just a few days ago, BJ was telling anyone who would listen that there would be no talks until the backstop was dropped.

The backstop is intact, but BJ seems to have "accidentally" found himself in talks this week. If this doesn't convince you that (a) he's full of shit and (b) he's too chicken to leave without a deal, then I cannot help you.

We should have both.
A Vote Of No Confidence in Boris - I imagine you are assuming that would be successful which is certainly not a given.
A Government Of National Unity for just long enough to request an extension and organise a Referendum - can you, in all honesty, see that happening because based on the shambles of the last two weeks I can't.

The so called 30 days to find a backstop solution is to run the clock down as Johnson can deflect a vote of no confidence on basis the 30 days has not expired until 21 September. After that there would be 40 days for a vote of no confidence and a general election before 31 Oct.

No certainty that a vote of no confidence would be successful. Polls not always safe to rely on, but conservatives moving ahead apparently.

@MysteryTripAgain - Merkel hasn't given a 30 days deadline to Johnson. Have a read of what she actually said.

Unfortunately it doesn’t really matter what she really said, anymore. What it matters is what he said in English in front of the press. Maybe he’s less the bumbling fool that he pretends to be. I originally thought that Angela played him beautifully and basically deflected his blame-game. But now I suspect he’s playing passive aggressive and getting ready to say “oh you only gave me 30 days, I still came back with plenty of workable solutions but you find faults in all of them, so now we go, if you want to do border checks in Ireland by all means it’s your prerogative, we won’t but let it be clear- the blame is all on you if you do”