Westministenders: Brexit Preppers Are Traitors Who Don't Believe Enough

[RedToothBrush]

Believe in Brexit. Brexit will be great. If only you believe.

So this is why the pound has tanked.
This is why the Treasury has opened the piggie bank for prep. This has sparked something of a backlash amongst moderates and remain MPs.
This will go towards managing that Channel Tunnel Congestion in Kent we weren't going to have.
And to stockpiling drugs which again was just hysteria.
This is why Gove, an MP who actually does have an eye for detail, has been drafted into the Cabinet Office.
This is why after his stint at DEFRA he is planning to buy tonnes of meat at a fixed price to keep farms in business.

Johnson has been to NI. But it wasn't a publicity stunt apparently. This is a man who posed for a photo when he resigned from the Foreign Office.

He was met with protests.

He also has a phonecall with the Leo Varadkar which was 'warm', before its been said by the DUP that Dublin must be a willing partner in a Brexit Deal.

Johnson is also still sticking to the line that technology can solve the border issue. Technology which will not be available until 2030 at the earliest by the government's own admission.

Johnson has refused to meet any European leaders until they drop the backstop (I note there are no EU meetings planned until mid October just a couple of weeks before the 31st anyway, so this kind of suits him and makes him look tough when really its been timetabled that way for a while. The EU themselves say that the 'next possible contact' with Johnson isn't until the G7 at the end of August anyway too).

However his 'Brexit Sherpa' David Frost - Olly Robbins successor HAS been meeting with EU officials still...

Dr Phillip Lee has confirmed today that he is actively considering his future as a Tory and defecting to the LDs. The rumour has been going for a while, and he is in the process of being deselected by his local party. To openly say it, is quite something though.

We also have the Brecon By Election today, which if the LD win as expected, would reduce the government's majority to just 1.

It is possible that Johnson will be leading a minority government very soon, if the cards fall the right way.

The speculation is rife that Johnson actively wants to force a GE. This hasn't been helped by Dominic Cummings has ordered the preparation of a Budget in the week starting Oct 7. Which would need to be voted for through parliament.

Votes on budget and other important issues are where not having a majority become crucial.

If a budget vote got stuck and provoked a GE it would perhaps land whilst Brexit Party Supporters had returned to the Tory party but perhaps before all the shit has start to hit the fan and people get really fed up.

And even if we do have no deal, when we DO have a deal, we will have to put a bill through parliament to implement it. Whilst everyone has focused on the backstop, no one has thought about this... which is pretty important.

It is remarkable that a No Deal Supporting Government are now seemingly planning for Project Fear.

And we were the crazy ones?

And just for the record, I am not an SNP supporter, just spectacularly pissed off at how Scotland has been treated since this referendum.

As are quite a few English people that can only try and use our vote in England ... but any party that made IndyRef2 a priority wouldn't scare me off.

@Motheroffourdragons Did you vote No in 2014?

This is where it gets tricky. Many people are saying yes now (me included although I don’t get to vote) but is that Yes anger. Is it because you really want UK to break up or is it because of Brexit. Would you change your mind if UK stayed in EU?

I am a bit torn

pretty I like Patrick Harvie and his ideas on localisation to address climate change. I also like his ideas on Council tax reform. I could even get on board with the Green view on Independence but I find it difficult to reconcile with staying in the EU. DD1 thinks Ross Greer is "hella cute"

Justaboutdone - mother couldn't vote as she wasn't on the Scottish electoral register but she's said in the past that had she been able to , she'd have voted No. Now she'd like to vote Yes and just has to work out how to get on the Scottish electoral register I've offered her lodgings

Can I Lodge with you too! Don’t really care about my vote down here since it’s a career Tory who seems to get in!

Love her or hate her I think I would have preferred Mhairi Black who’s constituency I have voted in before

Mother it sounds as if we are in a similar place.

I was a resolute No in 2014 and was slightly miffed I never got to vote because it would affect me.

At this time I would be a Yes and think it was right I never got to vote!

So even in Remain London 20% of the Labour vote looks to be Corbyn driven. It is also likely to be Leave oriented as this is the part of the Labour electorate Corbyn reaches which Khan doesn't.

The Labour vote in London is particularly remain-biased so this is statistically vanishingly unlikely. Many Labour voting inner London constituencies were 70-80% remain.

I don't have the data to be certain but I'd expect that within the Greater London area, the leave vote is dominated by Tory and in some constituencies UKIP voters.

Lots of remainers voted Labour in 2017 but won't do so again because they do not want their vote counted as a pro-leave vote - I have an awful lot of colleagues and friends in this group (mostly centre left Labour usually, plus some floating voters).

Justaboutdone - as long as ds stays up in Aberdeen, we have two spare rooms

Once he goes back up next week, we might actually see the floor again in his room The spare room needs a lot of junk clearing, as it's all piled on the bed at the moment - but that's on the list of things to do anyway

mother sorry was meant as lighthearted jest not a dig.
Would you be more or less likely to move back to Scotland if it became independent?

Lots of remainers voted Labour in 2017 but won't do so again because they do not want their vote counted as a pro-leave vote

Of course it was a Tory move to characterise Labour votes as Leave votes. Which one could argue has had the intended effect of weakening Labour support.

Cui bono ?

Just read some of the comments on support for Scottish Independence and was struck by the similarity to reasons for some people voting for Brexit ie making our own way in the world and they don't give a shit about us.

I am supportive of Scots independence, but I still feel the best outcome for everyone in the union would be to cut bloody Westminster down to size and have a federation of equals. At present, all the attention is on a few well-fed counties in England that vote Tory. If you are Scottish, Weslsh, Cornish, Northern English or Northern Irish, you are screwed.

And we lost the cricket in a humiliating fashion!

Of course it was a Tory move to characterise Labour votes as Leave votes.

There is some truth in this, but let's just say that Mr Corbyn and his pals couldn't have made it easier for the Tories to do this. I have zero sympathy for Labour's situation - it's the natural result of wanting to have it both ways - and increasingly little patience for Labour MPs who continue to sit on their hands (although in fairness I suspect that there is much going on behind the scenes that we are not privy to).

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Indy supporters Scotland wanting independence/"out" of the UK and yet also supporting EU membership is not incompatible or illogical.

In the EU, there is both a veto for important decisions and QMV for the majority of the rest. Neither apply in the UK. Even devolution can be rescinded at the whim of WM.

We would cede a small amount of sovereignty - in the same way that most nations have to in an increasingly globalised world - in return for being part of a bigger whole in which we were an equal partner.

At the moment we get given "pocket money" with which to budget - and even with that, there is resentment because of the Barnett formula.

If we'd been offered Devo-Max/Full Fiscal Autonomy/a true federal structure, ie retaining all the monies raised in Scotland, full tax raising powers and access to all fiscal levers, in return for a contribution to "overarching" UK requirements like Defence (even if it wold have meant contributing to Trident) and Foreign Policy, then I think the momentum for Independence would've been stopped in its tracks.

But we weren't and it hasn't.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Indy supporters Scotland wanting independence/"out" of the UK and yet also supporting EU membership is not incompatible or illogical.

It is if you are a bit thick, or dim, or like to pretend to be by strawman arguing all the time.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-news-latest-uk-eu-no-deal-downing-street-boris-johnson-a9039791.html

Johnson and Cummings do not come across well in this...

howabout There is quite a lot of comparing apples and pears there. The voting decision on a FPTP election is very different to a supplementary vote Mayoral election. In almost every London seat the decision is whether to vote Labour because you want to vote Labour, or because you don't want to vote Tory. In 2010 Labour polled 37% of the vote, and in 2015, 44%. In the context of a national swing against May's Tories the 2017 result does not suggest a Corbynite surge, more like an anti Tory one.

In a mayoral election you are freer to follow your heart and indeed to be influenced by personality and racism, both of which were a significant factor in recent results. Let' s not forget that Zac's personality and looks, perhaps including the racism and misogyny , does appeal to voters in more affluent areas of London. Ken Livingstone could only muster 40% of the vote in 2012 and nobody could accuse him of centrist tendencies, the majority went for the willy waving blonde buffoon. That Sadiq could take 44% of the vote four years later in a much more fragmented field speaks of the popularity of his politics in London. If you take anything from the mayoral elections versus the general election I would say it was how much the candidate's character is a factor.

To pick up Mistigri's point there are a couple of maps in these links , Tory seats and Leave vote boroughs have a high degree of overlap - sorry I don't have time to cut and paste the maps
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_London
www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/london-eu-referendum-results-borough-by-borough-breakdown-of-brexit-poll-a3279731.html

misti I think it is possible we are both right. London is 60% Remain but 5-10% Green and 10-20% LibDem. That means perhaps 1/3 of Labour London's core 45% is Leave. I would argue it may be even higher - Conservative Remainers are concentrated in London, as you point out.

In 2010 JC's Islington North result was 54% Labour on 24k, 27% LibDem on 12k and 14% Conservative on 6k. By 2017 it was 40k Labour, 7k Conservative and 5k LibDem. Turnout and voter registration had both increased and Labour had gained most of these votes. They had also gained some previous LibDem and Conservatives. If these are all single issue slightly left of centre Remain voters then I don't understand why they voted JC rather than LibDem? (The LibDems had a relatively good campaign in London).

Another conundrum is why Zac Goldsmith managed to win back his seat from the LibDems in massively Remain Richmond and in spite of his disastrous mayoral campaign.