Westministenders: Brexit Preppers Are Traitors Who Don't Believe Enough

[RedToothBrush]

Believe in Brexit. Brexit will be great. If only you believe.

So this is why the pound has tanked.
This is why the Treasury has opened the piggie bank for prep. This has sparked something of a backlash amongst moderates and remain MPs.
This will go towards managing that Channel Tunnel Congestion in Kent we weren't going to have.
And to stockpiling drugs which again was just hysteria.
This is why Gove, an MP who actually does have an eye for detail, has been drafted into the Cabinet Office.
This is why after his stint at DEFRA he is planning to buy tonnes of meat at a fixed price to keep farms in business.

Johnson has been to NI. But it wasn't a publicity stunt apparently. This is a man who posed for a photo when he resigned from the Foreign Office.

He was met with protests.

He also has a phonecall with the Leo Varadkar which was 'warm', before its been said by the DUP that Dublin must be a willing partner in a Brexit Deal.

Johnson is also still sticking to the line that technology can solve the border issue. Technology which will not be available until 2030 at the earliest by the government's own admission.

Johnson has refused to meet any European leaders until they drop the backstop (I note there are no EU meetings planned until mid October just a couple of weeks before the 31st anyway, so this kind of suits him and makes him look tough when really its been timetabled that way for a while. The EU themselves say that the 'next possible contact' with Johnson isn't until the G7 at the end of August anyway too).

However his 'Brexit Sherpa' David Frost - Olly Robbins successor HAS been meeting with EU officials still...

Dr Phillip Lee has confirmed today that he is actively considering his future as a Tory and defecting to the LDs. The rumour has been going for a while, and he is in the process of being deselected by his local party. To openly say it, is quite something though.

We also have the Brecon By Election today, which if the LD win as expected, would reduce the government's majority to just 1.

It is possible that Johnson will be leading a minority government very soon, if the cards fall the right way.

The speculation is rife that Johnson actively wants to force a GE. This hasn't been helped by Dominic Cummings has ordered the preparation of a Budget in the week starting Oct 7. Which would need to be voted for through parliament.

Votes on budget and other important issues are where not having a majority become crucial.

If a budget vote got stuck and provoked a GE it would perhaps land whilst Brexit Party Supporters had returned to the Tory party but perhaps before all the shit has start to hit the fan and people get really fed up.

And even if we do have no deal, when we DO have a deal, we will have to put a bill through parliament to implement it. Whilst everyone has focused on the backstop, no one has thought about this... which is pretty important.

It is remarkable that a No Deal Supporting Government are now seemingly planning for Project Fear.

And we were the crazy ones?

So please put this fantasy of a cross party venture out of your heads. It's politically unviable.

Oh well, that was nice while it lasted.

Grandpa just needs some new manhole covers to photograph. Also August is when his courgettes come out in the allotment. Failing that send Thornberry after him she's got what it takes

Well that'll be me joining ds2 as a veggie then...

Any chance we could have Larry the cat as the alternative Pre Minister? He is photogenic and has never put a foot wrong, politically.

The problem is that we are dealing with the"knowables," and with Johnsons wafer-thin majority I am wary of making too many assumptions about what happens next. I genuinely think Cummings is looking to provoke a GE as they can take votes off the Brexit Party and presumably come back to Parliament with more room to legislate. I also think Johnson will ask for an extension under the guise of "GE convention" and "democracy", whilst reassuring everyone we will Brexit on December 1st etc. Which he might.

Boris will always do what's best for Boris.

The issue with the U.K. and Brexit IS that political parties are unable to form cross party alliances.

Brexit is not about usual political separation, between right and left etc... and the inky way to solve this crisis will be to find a COMPROMISE as well as tackling what is the root cause of Brexit. The issue here is that British politics is totally unable to do that , has no experience of it at all and much prefer the bulldozer approach of squashing their opponent to impose their POV.

Other countries (Germany yes but not only, France has had similar situation where there was no clear majority too and I’m sure other countries have too) seem to be much more able to work together rather than just standing their grounds.

Having said that, I think one of the major issue is also that politics is changing all over the world. The old divide between right and left, the death of capitalism (which has nicely taken us to a situation with even more power and riches put into the hands of the very few AND has led us to a massive climate emergency), the realisation that what was sold to us (‘easier’life, happiness etc) actually has never materialised is changing what people wants form their politicians. The problem is that said politicians have caught up with it yet. (And imo the backlash is the rise of the populist, far right movements).

Again, for the 100th time Corbyn must go!!!! Now!
If Labour gets rid of him after a vonc but before the election itself, is it still possible to get that alternative PM scenario?
We wouldn't BE in this situation if Corbyn was gone in the first place. When is Labour going to finally open their eyes?
My preference would be for them to get him to resign this month.

I thought Tom Watson had about 140 MPs behind him? Would that not be enough Labour support? I guess they only need to agree to support an alternative PM long enough to avoid the imminent no deal and request an extension to hold some kind of 'democratic event'? It's a horrible thought that there aren't enough sane people in the HoC not to be able to manage that.

Boris and Cummings have no plans to seek an extension, they care most about keeping power.

They can only do this if we exit on 31/10. Anything else will be seen as a failure.

They know the EU won't remove the backstop - that's why they are now positioning it as the 'anti democratic' backstop and taking the non-negotiating position that they are. To say that it's the EU's fault for being anti-democratic.

Cummings & Boris will absolutely ignore the convention and we'll be out with no deal.

Does anyone know what the 'consequences' for ignoring the convention are?

Unless Cummings & BoJo would consider those worse than losing power and being seen as failures they won't be a deterrent.

I am worried about Corbyn's health - he looked bloody frail at the last interview they did with him. Having said that, even if he did resign this month, I don't think there would be enough time to get a new leader installed and fight Brexit before the leave date.

I thought Tom Watson had about 140 MPs behind him? Would that not be enough Labour support?

A majority in the HoC (before you remove the speakers) is 316.

140 supporters isn't a majority. It's barely a majority amongst Labour MPs.

But before Blair took over Labour installed Margaret Becket as a caretaker Leader and she did a good job too. I assume they could do the same again?

A national unity PM would have to be a Tory, I think, with a Labour Deputy.

Looking at the purdah convention:

"Where observed by executive officers purdah bars entering into any transactions or carrying out any works which would clearly, directly conflict with the stated intentional commitments (manifesto) of the cabinet or shadow cabinet in any authority. When local elections are being held at the same time as a general election this higher standard is usually applied"

Since no deal is the stated intentional commitment of the Cabinet and no positive action is required by BoJo, I'd say they wouldn't be in breach anyway.

No, I mean 140 Labour, plus Hammond's Tories, plus Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, etc. Admit it sounds extraordinary, but then so is no deal.

Sorry this is excerpt is more relevant:

"At the national level, major decisions on policy are postponed until after the purdah period, unless it is in the national interest to proceed or a delay would waste public money. The Cabinet Office issues guidance before each election to civil servants, including those in the devolved national parliaments and assemblies.[1] Purdah also continues after the election during the time in which new MPs and ministers are sworn in."

There is no major decision on policy required. BoJo doesn't need to do anything for us to leave with no deal during the purdah period. You couldn't be found as going against purdah by doing nothing.

Then we no deal and BoJo either leaves the civil service to manage the fallout alone (and so can blame them for everything - it was their mismanagement) or makes a play for crisis powers to come back before a GE to manage after a few days of problems thus painting himself as the 'white knight'.

It's actually pretty bloody perfect.

Cross post Mojo. God, that's depressing.

Caroline Lucas would make a good interim PM to head a temporary National Government. Sounds crazy at first, but actually I think it makes some sense....

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-government-national-unity-ed-davey-caroline-lucas-referendum-a8987831.html%3famp

I'd love to know what is coming out of the Hammond/Stewart/Starmer talks...I have the confidence that they are intelligent enough to have war gamed the scenario I've laid out.

I'm heartened by the fact we haven't heard their solution actually, because they know that if it leaks Cummings will have the opportunity to find a way around it.

So please put this fantasy of a cross party venture out of your heads. It's politically unviable.

Well, if Corbyn and his cronies really were so pig-headed as not to accept a compromise under someone like Caroline Lucas, Labour would be truly screwed for a generation, as they would be the ones blamed for a no-deal Brexit by putting party ahead of country!

Labour would be truly screwed for a generation, as they would be the ones blamed for a no-deal Brexit by putting party ahead of country!

I agree with this. Let's hope they do too.

I still don’t see why Parliament couldn’t stop this by setting a pre-Halloween General Election date in the 14 days following a VONC?

Parliament don't have the power to set the date. The power to set the date lies with the incumbent government.

Good point about the hammond/stewart/Starmer talks. No leaks is quite unusual these days.

The VONC allows for 14 days for an alternative administration to be formed. If that is unachievable, only then could a GE be called. Iirc, the minimum notice is 3 weeks for a GE (definitely not less, might be more), which means a minimum of 5 weeks following a VONC for a GE - but I think the PM (even though he had lost the VONC) still has control over when the GE would be and could leave it as long as 6 weeks.

I'm not a parliamentary process expert, so happy to be corrected.

Alternatively, if a VONC "won", parliament would need to vote separately by a 2/3 majority to over-ride the FTPA to try to get a GE before the end of October. But to do that, they would need control of parliamentary business or find a vehicle into which they could attach such a motion.

I think a VONC is the only thing that has automatic precedence over other parliamentary business.

Parliament don't have the power to set the date. The power to set the date lies with the incumbent government.

Presumably not if Parliament legislates otherwise.

....but it can only legislate otherwise if it can take control of parliamentary business - which is not how that place normally operates

I think their previous (and shocking to to the Erskine-May adherents like Smug) successful attempt to do so, which led to the indicative votes which resolved nothing has lapsed.

And they still need a vehicle on which to do so - and BlowJob is avoiding putting legislation in front of the house to avoid that probability possibility.

The Leader of the non Opposition gets a limited number of Opposition motions: iirc, he has one left in the timescale required - and he's not used the ones he's had before effectively.

Bercow, Grieve and Starmer are going to have to be very imaginative