Those who said a few months back that a no-deal brexit would not happen no matter what

[StealthPolarBear]

and we were being ridiculous to worry about it, are you still as confident?

[Fraggling]

I don't think it can work like that

NI is part of uk
Uk is leaving
We can't randomly leave a bit in
And esp one as sensitive as NI

There would be no border between ni and Ireland but a border between ni and the rest of the uk?

So effectively. Halfway to reunifying with ireland I mean that is massive politically

What of all the women who travel to mainland uk for abortions they'd be stuffed?

[Isthisafreename]

@Bearbehind - I’m really surprised that someone who posts here quite frequently doesn’t know this.

I had just assumed it was a coalition and never really noticed anything stating it was confidence and supply rather than coalition. Confirmation bias, I guess. I wasn't paying too much attention to it in 2016 as I assumed any brexit would be pretty soft. I did think getting into bed with the DUP was insane though.

We haven't had a single party government here for decades so the default for me would be a coalition.

[InTheHeatofLisbon]

A sea border is a possible solution but messes with the union.

The unionists in NI would consider that messing with the GFA. Changing the status quo in NI as it stands messes with the GFA. Which really isn't the right of anyone outside of NI.

[Bearbehind]

The unionists didn’t support the GFA - they’d be happy to sabotage it.

[bellinisurge]

The unionists don't give a shit about GFA, voted against it and would be happy to destroy it. However, border in the sea makes them semidetached from tbe UK and they exist to Be In the UK because they claim they are exactly tbe same as the UK - except they don't have all the UK's civil rights. At long last , those civil rights are being imposed on them if they don't get them in themselves. They are the same crew as Tea Party Republicans in the US.

[Bearbehind]

It’s pretty scary that people who are engaged enough to participate on threads like this still have their facts so completely wrong.

[Peregrina]

How dare you say that Bearbehind? Don't you know that's bullying them?

[Bearbehind]

I’m just genuinely shocked that people who actively participate in these threads don’t know the Tories don’t have a majority government or that the Unionists don’t care about the GFA.

It doesn’t bode well for the understanding of those who don’t engage in such discussions does it?

[probstimeforanewname]

How can border be in sea when NI is part of uk

It could work and it doesn't mess with the GFA. It doesn't really mess with the Union either. The fact as I have said so many times on here is that if you have a non-EU territory full of EU citizens (NI residents can almost all be Irish if they choose) that territory has to have a special status. And you have to fly to NI or get a ferry anyway - and you need photo ID for those these days. It could be done.

[larrygrylls]

It is interesting that GBP and the stock market have done so little since TM’a resignation and Bojo’s election.

They clearly don’t feel the outcome is effected to much. Is it already discounting ‘no deal’ exit or does it feel Bojo’s strategy has the same chance of a deal as TM’s.

[Bearbehind]

It doesn't really mess with the Union either.

It does if you are a Unionist. And the fact they are propping up the government is the reason it didn’t succeed.

Plus, if NI effectively remained in the EU, you can guarantee Scotland would want to follow, which would be the end of the union.

[larrygrylls]

Scotland realised last time it came close to leaving that it was completely unfeasible.

If us leaving the EU is tough in terms of trade, then Scotland leaving the union is 10 times harder. They do 60% of their trade with the rest of the UK and get heavy monetary inflow from taxes paid in the UK. A hard border between Scotland and England is fairly unimaginable.

And, as for currency, keep the pound? A currency where interest rates are controlled by the prosperous south. Or the Euro? Not allowed under EU rules unless they are managing their own currency for a few years first. So look like they have to have a Scottish Pound for at least a while.

[Peregrina]

I don't see why Scotland couldn't keep the £. Isn't the Bank of England also the Bank of Scotland?

[larrygrylls]

They can keep it but interest rates will be set in London (and quantitative easing). So, if Scotland wants to have an easier monetary policy than the rest of the uk (or weaken its currency), it cannot.

It would be trapped in the same bind as the Southern European countries using the Euro.

[Mistigri]

GBP and the stock market have done so little

GBP hasn't done anything dramatic, but over the last 6 months it's been a steady decline that's accelerated a bit in the last 4-6 weeks.

I think this says that the markets still don't believe there will be a no deal Brexit but they are getting more concerned about it.

[mindproject]

I have said it will be no deal all along. I've predicted nearly every step of this from the start as the direction of travel is fairly obvious. A fair number of politicians and their string pullers are psychopaths. They want chaos, death and destruction, they get off on it.

Leavers keep telling us they knew what they were voting for, but they really, really didn't; they might have known what they want to happen, but that's pure fantasy, they did not know what they are going to get.

[larrygrylls]

Misti,

Against the Euro it has declined about 3.5% since may but has been virtually unchanged over the last 4 weeks.

Not sure that is telling us v much.

[BloggersNet]

I can't remember what I thought about no deal but I probably was one of those who said it just wouldn't happen. I guess I've gone from 1. it'll all fizzle out and be forgotten eventually, to 2. TM's deal will go through by a small margin, to 3. Who knows, might be no deal, can't keep up. Either way I'm screwed. At this point I'm just numb. But unlike so many others, I have some options left if it all goes even more disastrous.

[Fraggling]

Still totally unconvinced on the just put the border in the Irish sea thing

So free movement from Europe to NI but not NI to the rest of Britain? So we are cutting NI away to get what we want from Europe?

I thought the rules meant that you can't do partial leaving, this was a hard rule as they have similar sutuation with other countries with parts that have large numbers that want to break away, it would set a precedent thats a total nono.

[jasjas1973]

I ve never believed that any Tory PM will go for no-deal, it trashes the economy and that will lose them the election and split their party into the bargain.

Millions of Holiday makers have already witnessed dollar and euro exchange rates, funnily enough it was a headline in the 'Mail....

I think historically there has never been a pre Christmas GE ? and of course BJ needs 2/3rds majority for an election, would labour want one pre brexit?

[ListeningQuietly]

Fraggling
Its the Backstop until all else is resolved.
NI law is MASSIVELY different from UK law already

• abortion
• gay rights
• schools
• consumer law
• utilities
• FPTP
• business rates

that splitting them off short term will make diddly squat difference to anybody

[Mistigri]

Still totally unconvinced on the just put the border in the Irish sea thing

So free movement from Europe to NI but not NI to the rest of Britain? So we are cutting NI away to get what we want from Europe?

You're mixing several issues...

Under the backstop, NI would remain in the customs union and in some parts of the SM. Would not necessarily include FOM - in fact I would assume it wouldn't.

Bilateral Irish-U.K. agreements covering travel/migration would presumably remain in place.

[LatteLove]

I don't see why Scotland couldn't keep the £. Isn't the Bank of England also the Bank of Scotland?

No, but the BoE is the whole UK’s central bank

[Fraggling]

'that splitting them off short term will make diddly squat difference to anybody'

This feels cavalier given the sensitivities.

You can't just split countries off 'temporarily'. I mean that's not how it works. How would Devon feel as an example if the rest of the uk said oh we're splitting you off from the rest of the uk. It's only temporary.

Mist I thought the whole reason so many find backstop unpalatable was because of freedom of movement?

Anyway. I think we're going to crash out and I think a few very rich people will make a lot of money out of it.

[Isthisafreename]

’m just genuinely shocked that people who actively participate in these threads don’t know the Tories don’t have a majority government

I never claimed the tories had a majority. I said the government did. I included the DUP in those numbers as they tories have an agreement with them.