Westminstenders: Prime Minister Johnson

[RedToothBrush]

It is actually happening.

By 5pm tomorrow Johnson should be Prime Minister, if nothing major goes wrong for him.

Phillip Hammond is expected to resign early in the morning. And there maybe others.

Parliament goes into recess on Thursday. Giving Johnson only enough time to announce a Cabinet and maybe give a brief statement in Parliament.

As it stands Johnson will have an effective majority of 1 if the Brecon by-election goes the way expected next week.

Unless someone else defects. Which isn't beyond the realms of possibility.

We also have Charlie Elphicke now suspended and facing a court appearance on 6th September, just 3 days after Parliament returns after the summer recess.

Remember when parliament returns Johnson must get a Queen's Speech vote to pass to start the new session.

The return of Parliament is 8 weeks before 31st October.

If Johnson can't pass a Queen's Speech... Is there time for a GE before 31st October? By the skin of our teeth? Or a crucial recall petition?

So for all the talk that parliament can we prevented from being prorogued or that we can get a deal by the 31st October, there is a GE shaped problem.

As for Johnson's plan for Brexit. Don't expect to see him say anything but waffly bollocks before that key Queens Speech vote. He can't. Instead expect lots of domestic promises - in part to distract, in part in prep for a possible snap election.

Of course to have an extension the Prime Minister needs to ask for it. Would a GE be enough to get one? And would we be granted one?

On the flip to that is the prospect of May's Deal. Much has been made of its death. But some have said its premature to say that. At the eleventh hour should the situation arise would parliament vote for it, backstop and all, to prevent no deal? Its not beyond the realms of possibility.

All the talk of Johnson driving a change of direction by the force of personality is nonsense. Johnson can use his personality domestically for support, but he his personality offers nothing to the EU.

On top of this all we have the Iran Oil Tanker Crisis. The US were alleged to have set us up, and now told us to look after our own tankers. Leaving us to look to Europe for international security cooperation in the area... Irony isn't lost.

Let us see what tomorrow might bring though...

There was nothing stopping the UK allowing more Commonwealth immigrants except its own policies

And although this has been done to death but I'll be nice and repeat it there was never uncontrolled immigration forced on the UK by the EU. All the Single Market required was the freedom to exercise SM rights - to work and they had 3 months in order to achieve it. The fact that the UK didn't choose to police that is the UK's responsibility And in any event, all the academic (as opposed to DM ) properly researched evidence is that EU citizens are net contributors

I can't even be faffed going through all the other dross about EU laws being "forced" on the UK and all the other DM prejudice sound bites that has already been repeatedly rebutted.

@Hester54
ukandeu.ac.uk/we-can-control-eu-migration-we-just-havent-done-it/

And don't say the home office isn't up to enforce it - because they are - they are ruthless...... I know from my own dealings and friends dealings...... well all you need to do is look at windrush

bellinisurge Haven’t all politicians down through the decades, it’s not a new thing

The main industry in my area is food production, which is very labour intensive. Pre-Brexit vote we had a high immigration rate from Eastern Europe, generally young people who worked in the factories and fields for a few years before heading home.

Now there's a drastic labour shortage as nobody is coming over. What no brexiteers have ever been able to answer is who is going to fill these vacancies? We have full employment round here, so where are all these British people for British jobs coming from?

It's all very well talking about skills based immigration, but what about the unskilled jobs that need doing?

This will be a shafting , the likes of which I have never in my long life, seen.@Hester54

Noone stopping you speak before

Disagreeing with you /= stopping you posting, but some Brexiters seem to think so

In fact, you order Remainers to stop posting

and other Brexiters are trying to get Remainers banned

afaik, they didn't manage to get leclerc banned, but he was so fed up with the stupidity of recent Brexiter posters,
that he is taking a break from MN

< waves to leclerc, who said he might lurk a bit >

mrslaughan You missed the bit where I said not the 3 month rule, so very easy to get around

DP doesn't have MS but can't regulate his temp. The freezer doesn't have food in it just bottles of frozen water on rotation. He's currently surronded by five 2 litre bottles, cooling towel thing around his neck, ice pack on his feet, sat on a cooling mat with a fan on.

It's cooler tomo thankfully!

If Boris does half the things he says his going to do, he could be the best PM for decades

And if he crashes us out with no deal on 31 October, he’ll be the worst PM for decades. And won’t have any money to do any of the things he has promised. In fact, I’m wondering what odds I’d get on him having to go cap in hand to the IMF within the next year.

I suppose the plan is to stop benefits for any Brit who refuses to pick fruit, do care work or leave their baby in a nursery

BigChocFrenzy Just like in my parents days, take you baby out in the fields with you to pick fruit, no work no benefits in them days

I have the cooling towel thing @Hazardtired - although my dd just nabbed it!
We have reusable ice cubes and lime. I see in my future.

It'll take years to train up more doctors to replace the E27 ones who are a significant % of NHS doctors in some fields, especially surgical specialities

OublietteBravo I’m sure he does want a deal, but it’s up the EU as well, if they will not agree an acceptable deal, what’s he meant to say, oh never mind will stay then ?

I've just had limes delivered. I'm eyeing up the gin too.

Nick Boles MP @nickboles
Dom Cummings’ strategy is clear: to reunite the Leave vote, see off the Brexit Party and win an election against a Remain vote divided between Labour, the LibDems and the SNP//Plaid Cymru/Greens. If Labour MPs don’t get rid of Corbyn, it will probably work.

The net UK contribution to the EU is about 0.7% GDP, or £8-9 billion

That's less than the annual subsidy to NI, with only 1 million Unionists (and falling)
compared to the cost of 65 million people in the whole UK getting frictionless access to an additional market of 450 million people

bellini now your talking... I have ice, tonic and gin but sadly no limes.

Cool thoughts to @bellinisurge and @Hazardtired s DH, and thanks for yours from MrsDGR ...

A freshly dampened (tea) towel around the neck, as much draught as you can bear (about the only blessing here is there is quite a good breeze which helps evaporation), and not rushing around. Just keep your fingers crossed there's nobody around to accuse you of lounging around on benefits.

If it's possible (it is for us in a quiet cul de sac) keeping your front and back doors open to create a through draught might be an idea ?

Also if you have paving slabs outside, wetting them with water can help ...

BigChocFrenzy Do you think it’s acceptable to steal the train medical staff from other countries ?
Don’t forget it’s a bit like a whirlwind the more people you let in the more people and services you need fro the extra people coming in, where will it end ?
A pop of 70 million, 80 million etc

@Hazardtired , take one for the team and manage without lime

Hester Interesting if you want to go back to those days of mothers having to take their babies to work in the fields
Not many people expected that when they voted in the ref

I hope we don't go back to the times when my dad was growing up in the 1920s & 1930s
His whole family, including my gran, were literally barefoot and hungry
No benefits, which pleased many Tories then

X-posted

Lost the argument have you? so it’s time to change the subject, Don’t you like it when your little club has a few new members with different opinions than yours,