Westministenders: EARRRTHHHHHQQQUUUAAKKKKEEEE

[RedToothBrush]

Well.

Thats a surprise!

icannot enjoy . Me too. Brexit votes less than Revoke petition And Remain parties is something to celebrate imho.

For the uninitiated TUV stands for True Unionist Voice.

you couldn't make this up

Agree with your last post Cailleach1

It will be interesting to see who will be elected next. One would presume SF, but Alliance could be very attractive to SDLP voters.

Ah, Arlene. We don't always get what we want. Fondly remembering the days when it could all be fixed so easily. Possibly.

hazard

I agree.

The past few weeks we've not been in our usual building...building works going on.

Our temp base is street facing and its amazing the number of people look at our foodbank banner and shake their head or swear.

Coz they could never need a foodbank and those that do are feckless 😔😡

Of course I smiled beatifically at the fuckers 😁

TUV stands for Traditional Unionist Voice not True

I agree that further polarisation of society into 'The Undeserving Poor' (and therefore necessarily the 'Deserving' rest of Us) is something many people will swallow horribly easily, especially when it is relentlessly pushed as 'the correct / a good view' by Govt. But not everyone, I hope?

Ashcroft Analsyis of EP vote switchers and who say they will stay switched

A GE before Halloween looks grim for the (former) Big Two parties.
They'll want to win back their voters first, which il take time and new policies

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/05/my-euro-election-post-vote-poll-most-tory-switchers-say-they-will-stay-with-their-new-party/

More than half (53%) of 2017 Conservative voters who took part in the European elections voted for the Brexit Party.
Only just over one in five (21%) stayed with the Tories.
Around one in eight (12%) switched to the Liberal Democrats.

Labour voters from 2017 were more likely to stay with their party, but only a minority (38%) did so.
More than one in five (22%) went to the Lib Dems,
17% switched to the Greens,
and 13% went to the Brexit Party.
....
Overall, nearly two thirds (64%) of 2016 Leave voters backed the Brexit Party,
with 9% voting Tory and 8% Labour.

The Remain vote was split more evenly, with 36% going to the Lib Dems
and 19% each going to Labour and the Greens.

The Conservatives also received 9% of the Remain vote.
....
And at the next general election…

Only one in three (32%) of 2017 Tories who switched to the Brexit Party said they would come home at the next general election;
52% currently say they will stay with the Brexit Party.

Conservatives who switched to the Lib Dems say they are even more likely to stay put: 61% now say they will vote Lib Dem again at the general election,
with only 22% saying they expect to return to the Tories.

Overall, only 43% of 2017 Conservative voters who turned out in the European elections say they will vote Tory at the next general election.

Half of Labour-Brexit Party switchers said they expected to stay with their new party at the next general election,
with only just a quarter saying they expect to go back to Labour.
Just over half (51%) of Labour-Lib Dem switchers currently say they will stay with the Lib Dems.

Just over half (56%) of 2017 Labour voters say they will back Jeremy Corbyn’s party for Westminster.

"TUV stands for Traditional Unionist Voice "

"TUV" also stands for Technical Inspection Association (in German)
e.g. taking your car for its MOT is "going to the TUV"

icannot

Re Northern Ireland this was the vote last time 2014

news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/26_05_14_ni_euro.pdf

Sinn Fein was elected on the first count. Apologies re UUP. Kennedy was not the incumbent.

Fast forward to today and Sinn Fein has said that there was a shortfall of postal votes. It will be interesting to see how that pans out.

But the plaudits have to go to Naomi Long, Alliance. It could be all over by 9pm tonight. Which will be a first!

So Lord Ashcroft has some polling data.

To be taken with a pinch of salt perhaps but interesting
www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/05/lord-ashcroft-my-eu-election-poll-most-former-tory-voters-say-they-will-stay-with-their-new-party-at-the-next-election.html

Conservatives
More than half (53 per cent) of 2017 Conservative voters who took part in the European elections voted for the Brexit Party.
Only just over one in five (21 per cent) stayed with the Tories.
Around one in eight (12 per cent) switched to the Liberal Democrats.

Labour
Labour voters from 2017 were more likely to stay with their party, but only a minority (38 per cent) did so.
More than one in five (22 per cent) went to the Lib Dems, 17 per cent switched to the Greens, and 13 per cent went to the Brexit Party.

Lib Dems
For all the success of the Lib Dems in these elections, only 69 per cent of their 2017 voters stuck with them:
13 per cent switched to the Green Party and seven per cent backed the Brexit Party.

UKIP
Nearly seven in ten 2017 UKIP voters (68 per cent) switched to the Brexit Party, with just under a quarter (24 per cent) staying put.

Yes it is Traditional Unionist Voice. My apologies!

Leave
Overall, nearly two thirds (64 per cent) of 2016 Leave voters backed the Brexit Party, with nine per cent voting Tory and eight per cent Labour.

Remain
The Remain vote was split more evenly, with 36 per cent going to the Lib Dems and 19 per cent each going to Labour and the Greens. The Conservatives also received nine per cent of the Remain vote.

Brexit Party percentages
To look at the question from the other end of the telescope, two thirds (67 per cent) of the Brexit Party’s vote came from 2017 Tories, 14 per cent from 2017 Labour voters and one in ten from former UKIP voters.

Lib Dem percentages
The biggest single chunk of Lib Dem support in the European elections came from 2017 Labour voters (37 per cent), with 31 per cent coming from previous Lib Dems and 24 per cent coming from 2017 Conservatives.

The following is what I suspected - and why this didn't show up on pollsters radars - when people decided who to vote. Its the 'don't know effect' and its REALLY important to understand when looking at polls cos its the most crucial information which EVERYONE wants to know.

When did people decide
Nearly half (45 per cent) of Brexit Party voters said they had decided how to vote within the last month, with only 17 per cent saying they decided on the day. Those who voted Conservative were more likely to say they did not make up their minds until polling day (37 per cent). Labour voters were the most likely to say their voting decision had not been in question since the campaign got underway.

And here's the top reasons for voting for that party
Not at all surprisingly, three quarters (76 per cent) of Brexit Party voters said having the best policy on Brexit was one of the top three reasons they voted as they did – but even more (84 per cent) said they wanted to show their dissatisfaction with the UK Government’s current negotiating position. More than half – including 60 per cent of those who switched to Nigel Farage’s party from the Tories – said they wanted to show they were not happy with the party they usually voted for.

Lib Dem voters named having the best policy on Brexit as the main reason for backing the party (76 per cent), with more than half (58 per cent) saying they wanted to show dissatisfaction with the Government’s negotiating position and nearly four in ten (38 per cent) expressing dissatisfaction with their usual party. Nearly as many (38 per cent) said they seemed the most competent party on offer.

Those who stuck with Labour and the Tories were much less likely to do so for Brexit-related reasons. Fewer than one in three (28 per cent) Conservatives said the party having the best policy on Brexit was one of their reasons for backing them; 60 per cent said they always voted Tory, 54 per cent said they seemed the most competent party on offer, and 37 per cent said they had the best policy on issues other than Brexit. Those who stuck with Labour gave the same top three reasons.

I notice the Green Party reasoning inparticular - it shows the environment definitely is the next big political wave of importance.

Brexit Party percentages
To look at the question from the other end of the telescope, two thirds (67 per cent) of the Brexit Party’s vote came from 2017 Tories, 14 per cent from 2017 Labour voters and one in ten from former UKIP voters.

That is interesting. It makes a nonsense of the phrase 'dyed in the wool Tory'

Overall, nearly two thirds (64 per cent) of 2016 Leave voters backed the Brexit Party

That doesn't make mathematical sense. 64% of leave voters is just over 11 million people.

Everyone is going on about how if you voted Brexit Party you supported no deal. And thats going to be how its spun publically. But privately, its going to provoke a tonne more of head scratching because this ISN'T what Ashcroft has found.

Brexit Party - 67% Support No Deal
Two thirds (67 per cent) of Brexit Party voters said the best outcome from the Brexit process would be for the UK to leave the EU without a deal.
A further 23 per cent wanted to leave with a deal different from the one negotiated by Theresa May.
These proportions were almost identical among Brexit Party voters who had switched from the Conservatives.
To stress - only 2/3rds of Brexit Party supporters want no deal

Tories - A mixed bag of loyalists and moderates
Among those who stayed with the Tories, 36 per cent backed May’s deal, while 17 per cent wanted a different deal and 14 per cent wanted no deal; 28 per cent said they wanted the UK to remain in the EU.

Lib Dems - Remain, Remain, Remain. Well nearly
Nine in ten of those who voted Lib Dem wanted to remain

Labour's Dilema
While three in ten Labour voters want to leave – most of those (18 per cent) with a deal different from May’s.

Overall
So while Leavers and Remainers have gravitated to parties who are unambiguous about Brexit, those who have stuck with the main parties are also polarised: two thirds (67 per cent) of Tory Euro-voters want to leave the EU, while nearly two thirds (63 per cent) of Labour Euro-voters want to remain.

Leave v Remain - changes of opinion since 2016
Overall, 89 per cent of Euro-election voters who voted Leave still want Brexit to happen – 55 per cent of them with no deal – and seven per cent now say they want to remain.
Meanwhile, 81 per cent of Remainers who voted last week say they still want to remain, with 15 per cent now saying the best outcome would be to leave.
Among all those voting in the European elections, 50 per cent said they had voted to Remain in the referendum and 45 per cent to Leave; now, 50 per cent said they wanted to leave, 46 per cent said they wanted to remain, and 4 per cent didn’t know.

So overall sounds spot on no change at all

Some ex mp, ex Strictly Dancer, now MEP, Anne Whatshername is bleating on about the BP having the moral authority to be part of the brexit process. Perhaps the Conservatives should have given her a seat in the House of Lords after all.

I'm delighted the Green Party have done so well.

I notice the Green Party reasoning inparticular - it shows the environment definitely is the next big political wave of importance.

Which is something the EU has been instrumental in working on, since it requires a lot of international cooperation ....

Fewer than one in three (28 per cent) Conservatives said the party having the best policy on Brexit was one of their reasons for backing them; 60 per cent said they always voted Tory, 54 per cent said they seemed the most competent party on offer

I'd be curious to see what they think incompetent looks like .....

Two thirds (67 per cent) of Brexit Party voters said the best outcome from the Brexit process would be for the UK to leave the EU without a deal.
How does anyone know that?

Just dawned on me that, at the moment, politics in Britain seem even more edgy then NI? Or is it just that we are inured to one and surprised by the other.

And FINALLY

And this is the REALLY interesting one....

The Next General Election has EVERYTHING to play for
Half of Labour-Brexit Party switchers said they expected to stay with their new party at the next general election, with only just a quarter saying they expect to go back to Labour. Just over half (51 per cent) of Labour-Lib Dem switchers currently say they will stay with the Lib Dems. Just over half (56 per cent) of 2017 Labour voters say they will back Jeremy Corbyn’s party for Westminster.

The Brexit Party Support seems to be a protest vote in many cases. But this ISN'T true of the Liberal Democrats - its seems to be a more serious and long term head ache for the Conservatives and Labour. (And I'll bet this is a particularly London based issue)

I also note the following:
Brexit 18% + Con 18% = 36%
Liberal Democrat 17% + Labour 21% + Green 7% = 45%

This is based on low turnout and a GE turnout will be higher so will be won and lost on the backs of more unreliable voters. These tend to as a rule, be more women and more left leaning, but since all bets are off, you just don't know.

But if I were the Conservative Party, there are lots of things in here I wouldn't like the look of. Likewise the Labour Party... though I might be a little more positive.

A coalition of some description would look the only outcome from a snap general election if it happened in the very near future.

Overall, nearly two thirds (64 per cent) of 2016 Leave voters backed the Brexit Party

That doesn't make mathematical sense. 64% of leave voters is just over 11 million people.

Its two thirds of 2016 Leave voters who voted in the EU Elections.

I reckon that’s right - even if labour came out unequivocally for a second referendum before a GE I’d struggle to vote for them as the trust is damaged.