Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

[RedToothBrush]

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

Think some of those MPs in remain constituencies will be as worried as those in leave especially those in marginals.

Cry me a fucking river.

fluffy You are peeking inside my Revoke fantasy

London percentages are high. I'm in manc atm but I've just seen Islington is 47.1 and if the rumour is Labour have lost there is true that's huge.

Kingston 48.1, Sutton 46.3, Wandsworth 47, Camden 44.8

Most of the ones I've seen are North of 40%

t.co/0gR3QJzvFK
Google spreadsheet with all results so far.

Islington is +7 since 2014

Sorry turnout not result

DG Heath ignored NI, as did his Home Sec, the sleazy Reginald Maudling

and this lack of attention may well have contributed to the Paras thinking they could do what they wanted
- which was Bloody Sunday
and the Ballymurphy Murders a few months before

Wilson had appointed Jim Callaghan as Home Sec until 1970, who played a much more intelligent & involved role.
He had a good understanding of the background

I sometimes wondered if the Troubles could have been nipped at the bud if Labour had won the 1970 election
and continued with their policies.

Bloody Sunday blew it up into a fullscale UK civil war
This was all avoidable

Dear God, spreadsheets - we are a bunch of nerds (I include myself) aren't we? We will find out tonight soon enough. I myself am likely to be up then, I am doing an assignment for an OU course, and want to get it finished before tomorrow morning, if possible.

@Littlespaces - but there are also those voting UKIP, and if you add those to the Brexit Party you are getting close to 6 million (could be more - I've looked up figures, and it's 46million voters, 38% suggested turnout, so only need 34%+ of votes to be UKIP+BP to get over 6 million).

NoWordForFluffy Honestly, if I were TM (god forbid!) the very last act I would take, given the shit show of candidates for her job, is revoke. Then walk out, head held high, whistling, telling them what I'd done! After all, she's still PM until 7th June

Perhaps we could plan a simultaneous offensive to bombard her with messages to this effect.

Subliminally.

Bloody Sunday blew it up into a fullscale UK civil war
This was all avoidable

Don't they say that of a lot of wars? It's impossible to prove why something didn't happen, but perhaps we can get an inkling by the way Leaders tackle problems.

Where is Uri Geller when we need him?

Zac Goldsmith shows how Brexit has broken the UKs parliamentary system. Just no one has been able to say it yet.

An MP is supposed to represent their constituents first. Whereas with Brexit, we're seeing MPs effectively inverting their role to support the rest of the country against their constituents. Which is basically exactly what allegedly led to the rise of UKIP

This been posted?

Look at the que!

www.birminghammail.co.uk/black-country/chaos-thousands-romanians-queue-tiny-16333968

Songs Remain voters have been the elephant in the room for Tory remain seats. Just ignored. With no deal Brexiteers taking there remain voters for granted. I think the Tory’s need to start worrying about that as much as Labour do.

With such a narrow majority in the HOC Government is being squeezed from both sides.

{Don't they say that of a lot of wars? It's impossible to prove why something didn't happen, }

If Adolf's mum had had a 'headache' then the EU may never have been proposed.

Hazard wow parents live not far away and I’ve not seen it mentioned anywhere.

Thanks DadDadDad

That is useful. Nation split right down the middle.

It just shows that a referendum should need over 60% to make massive changes otherwise you end up with civil war.

DG not sure I’d bother redecorating my office if I was Mr Goldsmith.

That is useful. Nation split right down the middle.

Indeed, roughly, we are looking at:
4 million votes to Lab and Con (who presumably are split 50:50 but hard to say)
6 million to UKIP+BP
6 million to parties who are explicitly Remain.

But the precise split in the results will be the interesting story to see where it's moving.

DH is fed up with emailing our local conservative MP pointing out that until Brexit he had always voted conservative and had on occasions been a party member but he would not support a party hell bent on destroying the country for political reasons. Many of his friends and colleagues are in the same place. Fuck business has not been forgotten.
It is a total myth that every Tory voter wants Brexit and that they will move to support the Brexit party.

What a shame they didn't vote in the UK EU elections HazardGhost - although they would probably have found that they hadn't been sent the extra form and were therefore disenfranchised

But look at the 2 comments: they don't seem to have realised the people queuing are voting today and therefore not for UK candidates or am I making an unfounded assumption?

It is a total myth that every Tory voter wants Brexit

If they carry on voting Tory, then they must do.

*This been posted?

Look at the que!

www.birminghammail.co.uk/black-country/chaos-thousands-romanians-queue-tiny-16333968*

I bet you a few posters on here will pop up to argue that any success for pro Remain parties tonight will be down to those awful forriners voting en masse!

Peregina you can't have an election without a good spreadsheet.