Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

[RedToothBrush]

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

Pretty no I can confirm racism is a problem in this part of the world.

2014s declaration times

I was wondering if the numbers were up because of EU citizens being turned away during the wk pretty made people want to get out there and feel heard in anyway they can. Never heard or seen lines like it before.

basil might be a bit trafficy round there today

Red 1am for West Mids ! Someone needs to get them a bigger abacus.

dg past Tory voter was what I meant to say. Most of DH's work colleagues would be Tory voters normally, as would he. They are not current Tory voters. They are a demographic who don't fit the narrative so are currently being ignored and I wonder if the rise of the Richmond turnout will be impacted by people like them.

Goldsmith doesn't care about the views of his constituents. I've had three personal ' debates' otherwise know as rows with him about his failure to represent his constituents. He has personally told me he can justify being a no dealer (despite representing one of the highest remain constituencies) because:

1. He is a representative not a delegate.

1. That his constituents 'had changed their minds'.

He was incapable of providing evidence about why he thought Richmond residents would change their views but according to him the rest of the country hadn't. He also ignores evidence of any polls.

The real reason for his stance is of course that it's a hard wired core belief. His father and mother spent millions of the family wealth to give birth to and grow the referendum movement. UKIP and the Faragists should give Referendum party more credit, as it's members then morphed into supporting UKIP.

The growth of the problem we face today was nurtured by the Referendum party.

Red which are the key areas to look out for do you think ?

Hazard As long as it doesn’t stop Dad getting his copy of the mail on Sunday

Just spotted Cambridge at 48% turnout. Given the high number of students there, who had a choice of voting there or home, that's very high.

just cycled past a polish embassy and there was a huge queue (polish nationals abroad can vote by post or at the embassy).

Wrote to Zac Goldsmith twice to ask why he wasn’t representing his constituents with regards to their overwhelming remain stance. He replied with a lot of waffle that boiled down to “you elected me to make choices for you”.
No I didn’t, you fucking, moronic, patronising, posh pretty-boy twat!

lonely God thought my ‘representative ‘ had a tin ear but he takes the biscuit.

Zac’s gone at the next election.

basil if your dad doesn't live on or in the border of Sutton coldfield then I'm very disappointed with myself for stereotyping 😂

He's correct he is a representative, required to use his own judgement as an MP when voting

He's also toast

Deservedly after his disgraceful racist dogwhistles in the 2016 London Mayor campaign

You are peeking inside my Revoke fantasy

It's mine too, BCF (as you may have realised!).

Jeez. Liverpool has a low turnout. Is that the Labour voters staying at home? (My area isn't much better either, but I'd have expected more people to go LD here.)

The Birminham Mail webpage is too shy to state that anyone voting today is not voting in the UK election, they must be voting for their home country.

Why might they fail to say so?

Hazard stereotype away you are quite correct.

When you become prime minister if you could just make The ‘Royal’ Town of Sutton Coldfield independent from big bad Birmingham you would make him very happy.

That his constituents 'had changed their minds'.
Lol no!
Perhaps a very soft brexit but never no deal, not in that part of the world!

STEVE RICHARDS: Doomed from the start, why May never stood a chance

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/theresa-may-stepping-down-brexit-failings-1-6066630

But when she detects loyalty from ministers, she can trust too much.

Liam Fox convinced her that glorious trade deals awaited an independent UK.
In giving him a new department to seek embryonic new trading arrangements, she was moving the UK out of the customs union.

She also chose to believe her new Brexit secretary David Davis that the EU's negotiating position would soon crumble
as German car manufacturers and others demanded that access to the UK markets remained more or less the same.

< Even so, I refuse to believe even she trusted Boris, when she made him Foreign Sec >

So off she went, a prime minister who had never given deep consideration to what Brexit meant,
inheriting a referendum result for which Whitehall had made no preparation.

Here is a key part of the explanation for the early phase:

May had been home secretary, cocooned from much EU-related policy making, beyond security issues for which the UK was held in uncomplicated esteem by much of the EU.
She had not expected David Cameron to lose the referendum and assumed that he would stay on if he did.
When Cameron resigned, Boris Johnson was favourite to succeed.
Within a fortnight she was the prime minister.

In terms of preparing for Brexit, its multi-layered complexities, this was the equivalent of playing tennis in a park and then being propelled on the centre court at Wimbledon.

She was not remotely prepared for the task ahead.

She had always wanted to be prime minister but had not expected to be in the post in July 2016.

Piglet I know Brum mail is basically Daily Mails angrier cousin.

UKIP got 27% of popular vote in Euro Elections, 2014.
That resulted in 24 UKIP MEPs. Out of 73 total.
I know b/c of PR system that a 4% gain (27% to 31%) is magnified.. but is it magnified a huge amount? it sounds like 3 more MEPs, so 27 instead of 24.

EU-skeptic parties need to have > 24 MEPs in 2019 results to say they actually gained anything. Would a 3 seat gain really mean BxP gained a huge amount?

basil yay i guessed right! I love that argument still goes on, it's literally been decades. I used to work that way years ago and heard the sorry tale a few times. I hope your father is coping okay with the upcoming closure of M&S. If he needs comforting you can tell him the largest m&s in Europe is in the south Birmingham

{I bet you a few posters on here will pop up to argue that any success for pro Remain parties tonight will be down to those awful foreigners voting en masse!}
There was one saying this in the 'comments' section of the article.

Difficult to say where is the place to look out for.

SW is a big Brexit party AND Lib Dem target.
The West and East Midlands will be a question of can Labour and the Cons hold. The Brexit Party can win big in both. Don't expect much from the LDs here (if they do its a shock)
East of England should be Brexit Party doing well if polls are to be believed. If the LDs are exceeding expectation it might show here.
Forget the NE. Its a lost cause. I'll be amazed if its anything but 1 Labour and 2 Brexit party (one Brexit party gain).
Wales is a bit of an unknown.
London could hold some ugly truths for Labour about how its policy is going down with voters. Rumours are the LDs won Islington.
SE is a mixed bag but it's the largest constituency so the last seats will be won by the smallest margins. Which makes it interest.
NW I think is the one that's really a little bit of an unknown. Might be a surprise in there.

Honestly it's hard to call.

Scotland are just cruel making us wait until tomorrow.

lijk whatever happens it’s a victory for BXP.

True fact.

Well that’s how it will be spun.