Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

[RedToothBrush]

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

I'm assuming the Faragists will get 30+% and 25+ seats

My main interest is if the Tories really will be wiped out with ZERO seats, as Daniel Hannan (Tory MEP) was tweeting,
or if he was just feeling v depressed and / or managing down expectations.

Zero would be a big consolation, but sadly unlikely

Europe Elects @europeelects
Hungary, European election today:

Turnout at 15:00 CEST:

2019: 30.5%
2014: 19.5%
2009: 24.1%
2004: 25.5%

#EP2019 #EuropeanElections2019

Little too many ?

So it will be under 6 million then, less than the number signing the Revoke petition. Interesting.

Richmond upon Thames #turnout for #EuropeanElection2019 is 53.85% - is that the highest in the UK?

Piglet Boris won’t get a new deal. He will however rebrand the old one as ‘Boris’s brand new vision’. Bit like Value frozen peas and branded frozen peas been essentially the same with different packaging.

Verification has completed. The number of ballot papers verified is 40,623 and the turn out for Reading was 38.7% View the results here later this evening: t.co/VP2CcRIlVC #rdguk #rdg #EuropeanElections #EuropeanElections2019

I've cooked Xmas dinner/Easter lunch for four catering for gluten free, vegan and with a meat option with a plug in mini counter top electric oven. Also had hobs and a steamer.

Am i the next Tory PM?

mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1SW0C6?__twitter_impression=true
EU election turnout in France nearly 20% by noon, up from 16% in 2014

Red is that zac Goldsmiths constituency?

Hazard yes pack your stuff and take some dreamies for Larry

Reading up 6% on 2014 apparently

Staff are busy counting votes cast in the European Parliamentary Elections. Voter turnout for Barnet was 42.5% #EUelections2019 t.co/m2riizdL4l

Specially packaged in Imperial for the Brexiteers delight.

I expect even Boris would be torn apart and brought down as PM, if he even hinted he was considering Revoke or WA.

Total fanaticism has overwhelmed the Tory party.
And a sizeable chunk of the electorate

Common sense has left the building and retired for the duration

This whole Brexit mess is a bit like a Two Ronnies sketch where the 'answer' is one step out from the question and as such cannot be resolved:
Cameron called a referendum to sort out 'malcontents' in the Tories, not a plan to leave the EU. Then a long string of asking the wrong questions and attributing incorrect answers with the most recent being the EP elections where the UK has voted for representatives who might never really take position in Brussels, but extrapolating the result of this vote into meaning the UK wants to leave the EU.

Scary

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/25/the-tories-have-abandoned-thought-in-favour-of-believing-their-own-lies

Honestly, if I were TM (god forbid!) the very last act I would take, given the shit show of candidates for her job, is revoke. Then walk out, head held high, whistling, telling them what I'd done! After all, she's still PM until 7th June.

Verification complete. 46% turnout for #molevalley - we’ll be starting the count in a couple of hours, see you then! #EuropeanElections2019 t.co/lxmmylf7zP

I'd be curious about the tipping point(s) at which a Remainer Tory suddenly realises they can be one or the other, but not both, and (more importantly) which is more important to them ?

Part of the problem is that no amount of trying to pretend Remainer Tories are somehow the antithesis of Labour Leavers is going to make it so. They're not.

Cailleach - it's interesting that you say that about Ireland. I haven't read your links yet - but hope to do so. I think it was the Guardian that mentioned in passing that Euroscepticism has seen off 4 Tory Prime Ministers but that the Irish Question going back to Peel's day has defeated all who have come up against it. By this I mean those who needed to tackle it; I don't recall it affecting Ted Heath's premiership for example. I would add though, that IMO the Irish question didn't destroy Major - he will rightly be seen as one of the architects of the Good Friday Agreement, so he must be excepted from the list that the Irish question has destroyed.

HazardGhost
Definitely near the top of the short list.

UHonestly, if I were TM (god forbid!) the very last act I would take, given the shit show of candidates for her job, is revoke^

This is my fantasy. The Lib Dem’s do insanely well in the elections and TM decides to revoke at the last minute of her premiership.
Sadly the fantasy I have about Andrew Scott finding me utterly irresistible is more realistic.

DG sometime in the next couple of those hours unless BXP has sleeper cells in Richmond ??

Think some of those MPs in remain constituencies will be as worried as those in leave especially those in marginals.

Boris Johnson that could be you.

I'm ordering this "Bollocks to Brexit" mug !

( I already sport EU T-shirts, jacket, bike & office flags)

www.amazon.co.uk/Red-Snapper-Photo-Bollocks-Brexit/dp/B07SCLT9SF/ref=sr_1_2?s=gateway&keywords=mug+bollocks+to+brexit&tag=mumsnetforu03-21&qid=1558878331&sr=8-2

the Irish Question going back to Peel's day has defeated all who have come up against it. By this I mean those who needed to tackle it; I don't recall it affecting Ted Heath's premiership for example.

I think Heath did have the balls to (privately) acknowledge there was no "winning" and tried to open a dialogue.

Red is that zac Goldsmiths constituency?

Yes indeed, he is MP for Richmond Park which had one of the highest % of Remain votes and yet he's advocating no deal.
Of course brexiters never complain about him not representing the views of his constituents. Funny that.