Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

[RedToothBrush]

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

But since verification has already been done in many areas (or is being done this afternoon prior to the polls of polls) results should hopefully be a little quicker. Especially since there are a lot less ballots to count than a general.

Gove has long been Murdoch's choice.

I think I saw him on the front page of the Stun in the chipshop on Friday, and he is also creeping into the Times.

Her red lines were the problem
Once she made that January 2017 Lancaster House speech stating them, she was doomed to failure

Any deal without SM membership would be noticeably bad for the economy and also creates the problem with NI / GFA
The backstop wouldn't have been an issue if the UK intended to stay longterm in the SM, rather than her induging the ERG aim of an eventual US FTA

The HoC would originally have approved a Norway+ deal - it is what most of them had assumed would happen if Leave won

She realised far too late that she couldn't fully pull off her previous trick as Home Sec of opting out of something and then wriggling back in to the bits she wanted

• a departing country no longer has the leverage, even though a member.

Voting day for us. First time for DD who turned 18 this month. Because this is France and not Britain, her electoral card showed up last week, without her having to do anything at all.

Unfortunately, we saw the ratcheting effect:

Once she conceded to the hard right with her red lines, she was politially unable to abandon them once she realised - as she must have done - that those red lines destroy any chance of a "good" final Brexit trade deal

Why did Johnson do a no deal speech?

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-took-thousands-for-no-deal-speech-dp9lpqvjw
Boris Johnson ‘took thousands for no-deal speech’
The Tory leadership hopeful has been accused of duplicity for flying to Switzerland to deliver a lucrative talk about Brexit

Boris Johnson was accused last night of pocketing a five-figure sum for a speech in Switzerland in which he vowed to take the UK out of the European Union — with or without a deal — if he becomes prime minister.

One Conservative MP turned his fury on Johnson for taking money on the Continent while plotting to make the UK poorer by leaving without a deal on October 31.

Brandon Lewis @ Brandonlewis
Our ⁦⁦*@Conservatives⁩ membership is well up to the task of choosing our next PM: This is an important task – my piece for ⁦*@Telegraph⁩

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/25/picking-new-prime-minister-important-task-no-wonder-tory-membership/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Picking a new Prime Minister is an important task – and the Tory membership has grown by 36,000

It is now apparently 160,000.

Yet no one wanted to campaign for the locals or the euros...

As everyone on this board appears to be more clear sighted than our current back of ministers....

...is there any realistic way to avoid crashing out now, given the current Tory turmoil and likely EP election results?

Same situation here, MIsti

Right back in early July 2016, a local govt officer told me that I would retain all my EU rights up until Brexit Day (if it ever happened)

That has been German govt policy and it has been consistent

In contrast, the UK started to treat E27 citizens differently as policy, right after the Lancaster House speech.

Hence the chaos when local govt couldn't roll back on such short notice - and after so many budget cuts - once they had to organise allowing E27 citizens to vote.

is there any realistic way to avoid crashing out now, given the current Tory turmoil and likely EP election results?

Let's wait for the EP election results first.

But the results of a GE would be highly unpredictable. I have my doubts that any Tory, including the High Brexiteers, will want to go there.

Prediction: if we leave on 31/10 without a deal it will be because the EU refuses an extension not because the U.K. doesn't ask for one.

Why did Johnson do a no deal speech?

Because he wants to be PM? I wouldn't read anything more into it than that.

These days there are few consequences for politicians who say one thing and then do another. And Doris of all people knows this.

"Our ⁦⁦*@Conservatives*⁩ membership is well up to the task of choosing our next PM"

I suspect many Tories would like to do that permanently !

BUT - Reportedly many Tory party members voted for the Faragists last Thursday.

Strange that they will choose the next PM, when they even voted against the party whose leader they are choosing

Yes, we have to remember that Farage/UKIP did well in the 2014 Euro elections, and then only managed to retain one seat held by a Tory defector in the following year's election.

However at the time, no one much took any notice of the previous year's EU elections, (despite its being the issue most close to Leavers' hearts ). They didn't realise how well Farage had done. The Tories were still doing well, and the LibDems were the ones which took the flak for the Coalition failures.

This time - well?????

The MOS has David Cameron and George Osborne both considering a return to HOC

One source claimed last night that friends of Mr Cameron had made discreet enquiries about standing in Sevenoaks – one of the safest Tory seats in the country – after the expected retirement of the sitting MP Sir Michael Fallon.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7070835/David-Cameron-considering-dramatic-political-return-standing-MP-friends-reveal.html

EU citizens denied vote in European elections to sue UK government

The problem is a vote has no value, so restitution isn't possible.

Funny, it's "priceless" when it's needed to get a Tory government, but worthless when denied a citizen.

I also saw a narrative that votes were denied because it's the EUs fault for allowing citizens the choice of voting in one of two countries and that made it "too complicated" for the UK process. Whether that survives into a court defence I can't say. But it speaks volumes about the UKs relationship with democracy elsewhere in the world ... just not quite the real deal, is it ?

Jeremy Hunt @ JeremyHunt
The choice in this leadership election is crucial. It will decide the fate of our country. As an entrepreneur, I’m standing to unleash growth & make our economy competitive post Brexit. And I am standing to unite us,because when we unite we win #unitetowin

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ill-make-a-brexit-deal-because-business-is-my-bread-and-butter-says-jeremy-hunt-drg883zpj
I’ll make a Brexit deal because business is my bread and butter, says Jeremy Hunt

Jeremy Hunt launches his campaign to succeed Theresa May today with a pledge to slash business taxes to the lowest in Europe to attract foreign firms to Brexit Britain, arguing that his background as an entrepreneur makes him the best qualified candidate to negotiate a new deal with Brussels.

In an interview with The Sunday Times, the foreign secretary also said he was better placed than his main rivals to win a general election because — unlike them — he had fought and won a marginal seat. He also sought to dispel the notion that he was less combative than his rivals. Hunt said: “If I was prime minister, I’d be the first prime minister in living memory who has been an entrepreneur by background.

Let's look at Jeremy's life according to wiki

Jeremy Hunt was born in Lambeth Hospital, Kennington, the eldest son of Admiral Sir Nicholas Hunt, who was then a Commander in the Royal Navy assigned to work for the Director of Naval Plans inside the recently created Ministry of Defence, and his wife Meriel Eve née Givan (now Lady Hunt), daughter of Major Henry Cooke Givan. Hunt is a descendant of Sir Streynsham Master, a pioneer of the East India Company.

Hunt was raised in Shere, Surrey, near the constituency that he represents in Parliament. He is a distant relation of Elizabeth II and Sir Oswald Mosley

Ah yes THAT kind of entrepreneur who came from nothing.

Hunt was born in Kennington and studied Philosophy, Politics, and Economics at Magdalen College, Oxford, where he was President of the Oxford University Conservative Association.

And had a crap education and lack of opportunity that come with his background.

On his return to Britain he tried his hand at a number of different entrepreneurial business ventures, including a failed attempt to export marmalade to Japan.

Brexit: Which has been pitched as opportunity to flog jam and biscuits to foreigners. Which Hunt has quite literally tried and failed at.

Hunt had been interested in creating a 'guide to help people who want to study rather than just travel abroad' and together with Elms founded a company known as Hotcourses in the 1990s, a major client of which is the British Council. Hunt stood down as director of the company in 2009, however still retained 48% of the shares in the company which were held in a blind trust, before Hotcourses was sold in January 2017 for over £30 million to Australian education organisation IDP Education. He personally gained over £14 million from the sale and in doing so became the richest Cabinet member.

I guess you can't make money off the Erasmus scheme.

"is there any realistic way to avoid crashing out now"

imo, more likely to crash out without a GE

Avoiding No Deal still requires choosing one of the same options:
WA / Revoke

The options of extension and / or PV just allow more time to choose one of them

Most ERG candidates - including Boris - would rather crash the country over the cliff than "give in" to one of those options

The only Brexiter I could see rolling back from No Deal is Gove, who reportedly accepted and understood the Cabinet briefings on No Deal

If the govt fall - or we even keep extending until June 2022 - then a Labour govt, even under Corbyn, would not allow No Deal
Easier for them, as they coud blame the Tories for the impossible choices

Nick Eardley @ nickeardleybbc
Raab says he won’t ask for another Brexit extension if he’s PM (though admits Parly could force his hand by passing legislation)

Oh the dripping irony in this Tory Manifesto Pledge given what happened to May.

"Hunt .....the best qualified candidate to negotiate a new deal with Brussels."

There will be no renegotiating the WA
and not even a start to negotiating after No Deal, until the UK has signed up to the main 3 WA terms of backstop, exit bill and expat rights

Tory candidates all seem to be misleading the electorate over this, especially the restricted electorate of Tory party members
- because telling the truth would kill off their leadership chances

When telling the truth is fatal, you know we are fukked

Hmm, who to believe, Raab or Barnier ?

In the "Brexit Behind Closed Doors" documentary, Barnier reported Raab made a tough statement, then backed down immediately when Barnier said that meant negotiations were over.....

Ready For Raab@ReadyForRaab

When the Brexit negotiations got tough it was Dominic Raab who stood up for Britain, saying things Mrs May ‘would never say’ to ‪*@guyverhofstadt‬ and ‪*@MichelBarnier‬.

Earlier than that in France NigellasGuest. Ours opened at 8am and closes at 6pm, which is the advantage of Sunday voting. The votes then get counted (very quickly in the case of our commune which has about 50 voters).
I used to be on the council and loved doing the elections, especially working the pinger as the vote went in. 😀

The Irish Border@BorderIrish

Is someone going to tell Donald Tusk that Brexit is using its extension to scratch its arse and shout at its own reflection?

Nick Cohen:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/25/the-tories-have-abandoned-thought-in-favour-of-believing-their-own-lies

We’ve reached the point where you cannot be honest and be on the right.

Tory MPs who know the dangers the country faces keep quiet for fear of their constituency associations.
< and Tory leadership candidates too >
....
As soon as you make your opposition clear, you are expelled.

Tribalism is all, to call the modern right anti-intellectual is to understate the case.
It is anti-thought.

Bank Holiday listening for those with time on their hands who fancy a retrospective
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p062h50y/episodes/guide

“I’m a details guy,” Dominic Raab tells Andrew Marr

From the man who didn't realise our trade with Europe was reliant on Dover.

Justine Green has it spot on. These dickheads are a parade of Brexiteers who won't discuss the issues.

It's going to be a 'comedy' of liars, bullshit tears and cringe inducing, toe curling, comments in which you will have to restrain yourself from hurling stuff at the tv.