Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

[RedToothBrush]

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

Apparently it's not too late to join Tories & vote for next leader (I understand only have to join before nominations formally open).

From their website - Members play an active role in the Conservative Party, can attend our annual Party Conference and receive voting rights in Party elections, once you have been a member for three months

Damn

Rory Stewart does sound sane... sadly he is extremely ugly. Optics all wrong. Not a chance.

Because the rest of the Tory contenders are pictures of beauty?!

I'm not convinced that Gove will stand.

He's not in favour of no deal but he's seen what has happened to TM in trying to get a deal. I think he'll keep his head down to stand next time and let BoJo or whoever take the chalice.

I think he'll want to position himself as sweeping in after Brexit is done (whichever way it goes).

I wouldn't swipe right on any of them. But I prefer to judge politicians by their attitude and principles, not whether I'd shag them!

Hazard, I just got an email from the LibDems asking me to become a member. Apparently you have to join by 7th June to vote in their leadership election - though I can't imagine there'll be many candidates. Has anyone expressed an interest other than Jo Swinson? I think Layla Moran ruled herself out.

Maybe as we’ve become a world wide joke of a country, it’s quite fitting to have a clown as pm.

{I'm not convinced that Gove will stand.

He's not in favour of no deal but he's seen what has happened to TM in trying to get a deal.}

But so far the UK has not been trying to get a deal. The WA is just foreplay, setting out the guidelines to stop the UK getting the idea that it will just grab cake and trample over the four pillars of the EU.
The UK has spectacularly failed to make it to first base, not because of the EU, but because the UK does not have a particular goal in sight.
Like all journeys, you have to decide where you are going and plan accordingly. Does the UK want to totally ignore Europe (which could be implied by the rabid Brexiteers) or does it want a close meaningful partnership, often quoted by Theresa (If I have got it correct).
The EU are still waiting for the UK to decide what the hell it wants, but at the same time stating what the UK will not get.

Layla Moran 🔶 🇪🇺
‏*@LaylaMoran*

I have called for an enquiry into the UK's handling of the EU Elections.

EU citizens arriving at polling stations to be told “vote in your own country” is shameful. I blame the Government who has no interest in enfranchising EU citizens. #DeniedMyVote

The UK is playing 'shag, marry, avoid' but so far is still in the pub and has got another round in, not even getting round to meeting the girl/boy.

Apparently it's not too late to join Tories & vote for next leader (I understand only have to join before nominations formally open).

From their website - Members play an active role in the Conservative Party, can attend our annual Party Conference and receive voting rights in Party elections, once you have been a member for three months

I joined with a group of like-minded friends on 26 March - we reckoned we might have a chance of having a vote, and that at £2.09 a month it was worth a punt. It looks like we should just about be eligible...

View from Brussels (the influential European Policy Centre):

Fabian Zuleeg@FabianZuleeg

Just watching @BBCNewsnight

Hearing seriously that a new PM with a new agenda might get a better deal from the new @EU_Commission

Feel like banging my head against the wall.
The return of cakeism with a vengeance
....
Rumours flying around that EU27 would offer further extension(s).
Not sure based on real insight or wishful thinking.

But even if some contemplate it, requires unanimity. + will look terrible with BJ demanding renegotiation
+ there will be rather important decisions - MFF etc

Oh, go to the conference. Wouldn't it be great if their conference was 'infiltrated'

Bruno Waterfield@BrunoBrussels (Times)

May seen here as a tragic figure whose 2 worst miscalculations (effectively firing Ivan Rogers & notifying A50 before bungled election) sealed her fate.

Talks doomed from Sep/Oct 2017 onwards with sequencing/backstop driven by her early declaration of restrictive red lines

I also joined the Tory Party to get a vote (hopefully)...

Rory Stewart does sound sane... sadly he is extremely ugly. Optics all wrong. Not a chance.

My mum was saying the same thing, earlier - I had to google image search him. I actually don't think he's that bad for a tory, looks a bit like John Bishop.

But looks shouldn't come into - after all, Esther Mcvey is downright pretty and I shudder to think what would become of us with her in charge.

Rory has a certain puckish quality.

He looks like Eddie Redmayne's plainer, older brother

Johnson looks like a fatberg - doesn't stop some people thinking he's leadership material.

oubliette hopefully you will be able to balance out the ‘swivel eyed loons’ (Cameron’s description not mine)

Dh and I did debate one of us joining the Labour Party one the Conservatives so at least we feel we have some sort of input into who’s next out of the traps running the country.

DS (15) suggested taking the voting age down to 16 to try and balance out the ageing demographic of the country did that happen in the Indyref or was it just an idea Scottish posters ??

Arf new game show Shag Marry Avoid candidates. Only attractive politician I can think of is Mark Rutte Dutch pm.

{Esther Mcvey is downright pretty}
Not really.

I made a bad call. I didn’t think I could actually stomach joining the Tories so joined Labour to vote Corbyn out. Still it must happen sometime.

Well it's all subjective leclerc, but she's symmetrical, photogenic and has a cracker blow dry. I'll be pretty damn pleased if I look like that in 20 years.

Doesn't make up for the ugly on the inside, though. Hence why looks shouldn't come into it.

wood is the Labour selection process really complicated ?

I vaguely seem to remember them having a vote about having a vote then trying to decide if the vote that was about the vote should be a secret ballot or not ? Or was that when they were trying to out JC the first time?

Thank you!

I totally misread the concessionary as you must be 26 or under and be claiming benefits so I thought I was to old... in my defence I am very tired because of a strict no coffee after 2pm rule.

Lib Dem
Who are the candidates?
No candidates have formally announced their candidacy yet. We will know who the candidates are once the Parliamentary Party has nominated on the 30th May.

Still considering it... I just don't get if it's worth it. Reading through lib dem discussions on disability benefits and I'm not exactly balled over. Also skimmed the health and social care policy.

Bravo to anymore with the stomach to join the Cons!

Rory Stewart got a mention and some air time on The Last Leg last night.

*not air time as in on the show but he was a talking point!

I doubt many Tory Party Members watch The Last Leg!