Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

[RedToothBrush]

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

Martin Fletcher of the New Statesman seems to think highly of Boris.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/05/repellent-chaotic-and-serial-liar-boris-johnson-would-be-catastrophic-prime?fbclid=IwAR1TNn8r0mM9MpKDocrNztS4_j-8PatR0TD2bKS5V6zhhoYyKwmiQeXLgbM

I don’t know Basil I assumed I’d find out when necessary.

Rory Tory has a sort of intenseness about him that I rather like.

One down, most of the others oblivious.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/25/tory-leadership-race-cyanide-brexit-inequality

Little not sure there is going to be a home for these moderate Tory’s if the party is going to continue shuffling over to right whilst comparing ovens.

Crying with laughter at SwedishEdith

Johnson looks like a fatberg

Hearing seriously that a new PM with a new agenda might get a better deal from the new@EU_Commission

Yes yes! They were saying that on the telly moments after she resigned (I wish I could remember who and what programme). I'm only a lurker here and watch the news in small snippets whilst battling with a 3 year old and 8 month old, and even I thought this was a ridiculous notion.

It's about policies - protecting the Single Market and the GFA - not personalities & charm.

Anyway, didn't Boris compare the EU to the 3rd Reich ?
No boyishly ruffled hair or Latin quote can make up for that

Unlike when May tried to renegotiate the WA, their refusal to Boris might not even be polite

All the Brexiter contenders have been pretty insulting ....
the E27 leaders & the Commission can read English and also have minions who do so fluently

Hearing seriously that a new PM with a new agenda might get a better deal from the new@EU_Commission

Fgs we are sending Boris with a flag not Merlin with a wand.

Rory Stewart does sound sane... sadly he is extremely ugly. Optics all wrong. Not a chance.

I don't think he is ugly, never mind extremely. He may look a bit delicate and fine boned, ironic considering his military bg. Look at the rest of the beauties. Especially when they open their mouths and give an idea of what goes on in their brains.

I think Stewart is aeons ahead of most of them (bearing in mind he is a Tory).

The continental papers will be recycling some of their older Brexit covers if he becomes PM

• this would also sum up any renegotiation attempt

EU citizens denied vote in European elections to sue UK government

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/25/eu-citizens-denied-vote-in-european-elections-to-sue-uk-government

Basilpots - 16 year olds can indeed vote in both Scottish Parliament elections as well as local elections. They were also able to vote in the Indyref Iirc, SNP MPs tried to get the franchise extended to 16 year olds for the EU Referendum, because it affected their future (but I might have imagined that), as well as trying to make sure that there was a requirement for all 4 constituent parts to want to leave (but were voted down with a patronising pat on the head saying that it didn't matter as the vote was only advisory )

Ds voted on Thursday for the first time as an 18 year old - but has already voted in Council elections.

The English Higher exam was on the same day as the Holyrood elections in 2016. The "close reading" piece was an article by Julia Hartley-Brewer arguing that 16 year olds shouldn't be given the vote. She did wonders for encouraging the young people who sat the exam to go and vote (Especially those whose polling station was in the school where they were sitting the exam )

Re Rory Stewart: even though Louise28 (and others) have suggested he seems to make a fair amount of sense and be grounded and realistic. I, on the other hand, can't take him seriously, even if he is well-meaning Realistic and grounded aren't words I'd use for him He was the one during the Indyref that started the campaign called something like "Hands across the country" - a string of people holding hands Coast to Coast to demonstrate the value with which they held the Union. When he couldn't get traction on that, the campaign morphed into building a cairn at Gretna to illustrate the strength of feeling. I believe that if you search behind the retail park at the border, you still might be able to find the small pile of stones

Please let Daniel Hannan be right for once !

Could he be unemployed now ?

Daniel Hannan@DanielJHannan

Thank you to everyone who voted for the @Conservatives today.

My sense, for what it's worth, is that we are facing a total wipeout - zero MEPs.

I just hope our next leader can get Brexit over the line.

It's about policies - protecting the Single Market and the GFA - not personalities & charm.

Unfortunately, BCF, personality and charm are extremely significant and very few people care about policies.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/11/farage-rees-mogg-claire-fox-britain-is-seduced-by-politicians-who-are-characters
This article was posted on these threads before, and it is absolutely true.
If you want to deceive the French public, you pose as an intellectual. In England, you pose as a character. Like a criminal on a witness protection programme, the ham actor who plays upper-class roles avoids the accountability that prevents democratic life degenerating into the feast of fools we see around us.

Brexit has as much been a failure of British journalism as British politics. The basic questions have not been asked...

...Nigel Farage plays the old English hearty full of cakes and ale. Boris Johnson is Billy Bunter with a smattering of Latin. Jacob Rees-Mogg poses as an Edwardian lawyer calmly laying out the facts. In short, Brexit is being pushed towards its miserable conclusion by men who raided the fancy-dress box for traditional robes.

They get away with it because the old British ruling class never quite discredited itself. Every other major European country was ruled by fascists and communists in the 20th century and suffered occupation and collaboration. In Britain, it is still possible to adopt the mannerisms of the old elite and not be treated with...scorn and incomprehension...

...once a character is established in England they become close to being a national treasure. Tackling them becomes the equivalent of cross-examining the Queen about her sex life...

...Why is it so hard to admit that we are no different from any other country caught in nationalist backlash?

Britain’s privileged history explains the denial in part. We are a moderate island, runs the national myth, extremism happens over the water and far away. But the refusal to tear the masks away matters more...

...Politicians become journalists and journalists become politicians, as the firewalls of democracy burn down...

...The week after the media personalities Johnson and Gove triumphed in the 2016 Brexit referendum I wrote: “If you think rule by professional politicians is bad, wait until journalist politicians take over.” Now you know the consequences: a country that cannot leave the EU or stay in. A country that can address no other issue but Brexit, but cannot resolve Brexit either. A country where no one who campaigned for Brexit will take responsibility for it. For all their aping of the manners of the Victorian and Churchillian establishments, the characters who have taken over the British right have not provided us with a ruling class but a ruling chaos
..........

When ratings and sales drive editorial decisions in TV and newspapers, sensation becomes the most important element of what is presented, with other editorial values falling by the wayside. Who makes good television is all that matters. So you get someone like Farage being 'controversial' week in, week out, because that drives ratings. Someone with an economics degree who has integrity and intelligence and talks about matters of substance in a serious way doesn't stand a chance.

PMK

When ratings and sales drive editorial decisions in TV and newspapers, sensation becomes the most important element of what is presented, with other editorial values falling by the wayside. Who makes good television is all that matters.

We need journalists and producers of political talk shows like QT to grow a backbone.

Gove enters the Leadership race. Once more this gives Johnson the opportunity to back out.

she's symmetrical, photogenic and has a cracker blow dry
I swear Esther McVey has hair extensions!

And I think Rory the Tory has a certain charm.

For the first time since 2016, I fear we are heading towards no deal.

I think we are heading towards a General Election.

I’m predicting Hunt v Gove, Gove wins. Gove won’t leave without a deal.

I’m probably way off though

A GE is the last thing we need at the moment. Labour needs to sort its shit out first. Please.

Morning Prettybird thank for replying and confirming is their much enthusiasm among younger voters ?

Does not surprise me about JHB bit good on whoever set that test probably did more than anything else to get them to put a cross in a box.

Good to hear a different view on Rory sounds like he might be a little bit too ‘well meaning’ for the Tory’s at the moment. And another one to stick on the pile ‘not really a Tory’ with Justine Greening.

Utterly depressing that we could end up with a prime minister who is there because they are a ‘character’ rather than giving a great deal of thought to their suitability to the role.

What makes this even worse is that would the leader of the opposition be any better at it ?

I think that the new leader will get nowhere with changing WA, so the right wing will push for No Deal. At that point moderate MP's in the Tories will defect and the Government will collapse. -> General Election.