Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

[RedToothBrush]

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

While BoJo probably has the 'whatever' to simply say exiting is too difficult we will remain, that is almost the 'easy' bit.
What he would then have to pull off is the massive strategic spending and forward planning that the UK NEEDS irrespective of Brexit. Granted if he did revoke the finances would look a hell of a lot better, but the issue is that he is not a shirt sleeves up and graft person so he would have to install a committed 'revoke and improve' focused cabinet.
He will have to counter all those who will have elected him who will cry about 'democracy' (hypocritically). He would need to hand pick effective and knowledgeable members to be in cabinet.

OK then.

I can't stand Rory Stewart. Boris for PM.

@RoryStewartUK
The reason I want to be leader is to make sure that in 15 years’ time British hospitals, British schools, and our institutions are the admiration of the world.

Good start.

I'm sure I don't agree with Rory Stewart on lots of things but he certainly has an air of earnest sincerity about him. He's got no chance of being leader.

The real problem is that only 2.7% of the population will choose the next British Prime Minister, with an average age of 70.

Sorry - should be 0.27%

(from Emily Maitliss)

{Sorry - should be 0.27% }

Doesn't sound particularly democratic, a bit like having several PMs appointed rather than a public vote.
This democracy lark that people are claiming they want seems a bit flawed.

@jonworth
After May's resignation speech, what next? nifty flow chart

jonworth.eu/brexit-what-next/

Changes since Version 1:
May's Deal, exit before 31.10.2019: ⛔️ Eliminated ⛔️
#PeoplesVote (needs further delay): 15% ⬆️
General Election before 31.10.2019: 60% ⬆️⬆️
No Deal Brexit looms: 26% ↔️
Brexit with Deal, but delayed: 2% ⬆️

The only positive I see about Boris is that he is such a confident liar with no interest in anything other himself that he might be prepared to do almost anything to make the current situation better, while lying to everyone.

Boris says and does whatever whatever pleases his ego as The Great Man, without considering the consequences - the plebs bear those, like poor Nazanin

This recorded phone call from 1990 should be enough to stop Boris becoming PM ......
but it should have stopped him becoming London Mayor and MP

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/darius-boris-and-a-blast-from-the-past-1658043.html

For any ordinary pleb, that would probably be conspiracy and a criminal charge

Big much like with Trump and Farage doesn’t matter how much mud you throw at Boris he just keeps brazening it out.

The question isn’t “Could he pull off Revoke?”
It’s “Would he want to?”
I know he’s utterly untrustworthy but, so far, he appears to be advocating the hardest of Brexits.

And, incidentally, I think that’s why TM really had to go: she’d reached the point where it was impossible to negotiate or compromise because not one person trusted her to do as she said.

Why would Boris choose to Revoke ?

It would save the country from an economic crash,
but would cause him to be crucified by his current fanbase, MPs and party members

He would probably take the risk of not being able to find scapegoats for the crash, rather than the certainty of being crucified for "betrayal / treason"

• he knows how nasty and indeed dangerous his allies are

In particular his allies in the US far right, who are interested only in loot

Tanith As PPs said Boris is not a leaver, he is a Boriser.

I would have no expectations of Boris revoking but I don't think he would create harm for any ideological reason other than support of himself,

Does anyone know an idiots guide to joining a political party member? Is it worth it?

I know nothing but considering joining lib dem to vote in its leadership elections. It has two tiers starting from £12...bit annoyed no obvious concessions for those claiming benefits or OAPs.

You have to check the rules. You have to be a member of the Labour party for so long to qualify for voting in a leadership election.

As commented a while ago, modern warfare between developed countries will be of the cyber attack variety, damage to the running of infrastructure (crashing the computers, not physical) and attacks on currency. Putin wants to keep a ring of neighbours around Russia who are beholden to him as a buffer and is prepared to be unsubtle about it (Ukraine for example).

Hence the Huawei issue and Trump's very unsubtle 'trade' war with China.

Also Trump's insistence on selling arms to Saudi Arabia. American arms sales are and always have been an extension of American foreign policy. Same goes for foreign aid of course.

There has never been anything subtle about either since the end of WW2. (See the Truman Doctrine).

Putin vs Ukraine is small potatoes compared to the global reach of the US and the comprehensiveness of its strategy.

If Boris puts himself forward to his Conseratives buddies as a candidate, he will tell them he is a committed hardline Brexer, because that's what they want to hear.

You can rely on his word, his honesty, his reliability and his record to do what he says.

i.e. not at all.

Hammond didn't even have the political nouse to do anything to support TM's "vision for the JAMs" as Chancellor

TM had no vision for the Just About Managing.

That phrase was intended to be a divide and conquer tool, pitting those who feel menaced by sundry forces and other groups against all the groups they feel are menacing them - immigrants, benefit scroungers, the EU, Muslims, etc.

Anyone and everyone who feels in the slightest way pressured on any front could identify as a JAM.

The 'Just About Managing' are Theresa May's version of Nixon's 'Silent Majority' and the recently identified 'Quiet Australians'.

The phrase is a code.

Rory Stewart does sound sane... sadly he is extremely ugly. Optics all wrong. Not a chance.

Apparently it's not too late to join Tories & vote for next leader (I understand only have to join before nominations formally open).

www.libdems.org.uk/membership-faqs

Concessionary subscriptions are a thing for the Lib Dems £6/year.