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Brexit

Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise

979 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 22:31

In the beginning there was this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

And it said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

And

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

So what of where we stand and the poison chalice of the Tory Leadership and a deal.

According to a poll of Tory Members, Johnson is by far their runaway favourite to become next leader. And he's given a 61% competence score - higher than any other candidate.

With Raab as their second favourite.

May has successfully managed to make such a mess of how she handled the 2016 Tory Party Conference and everything that subsequently stemmed from that, that the poison chalice of leadership will be passed and sooner than many would have wanted.

However blame for what follows can be laid at her feet. At the Labour Party’s feet for ending talks that were never going anyway. At the EU. And No Deal has been detoxified by May's handling amongst many supporters of Brexit. Johnson and Raab will therefore have no interest in striking a deal with the EU and instead set sail for exit on 31st Oct and will brazen it out.

What is scary is that waiting in the wings is Farage, who without winning a single seat in the HoC has more power than any MP. They are all so afraid of him. Thus we face a very hard push to the right, with the left and centre in disarray and disorganisation.

The Human Rights Act and Devolution settlements will be top of the list to go.

And we will face draconian ways to control the population as the lazy fools will want no accountability to the press or the courts.

How long before appointed or elected judges?

Was Boris outmanoeuvred?

By the look of it, absolutely not. He just had to wait a few years. But his path and power will not be lead by him... But by those who pull his strings.

It looks bleak. Very bleak.

Many may rue the day they didn't vote for May's deal yet...

... And fear of this nightmare vision of the future is the only card May has left in her hand to play. Will anyone realise this?

Probably not, because they will all still think Johnson's leadership bid will be blocked by moderates. The trouble is he's polling well and the cowards are too busy looking over their shoulders at the turquoise arrows.

Pray for a shock result next week which brings fewer Brexit Party seats than are anticipated. The trouble is they have the momentum right now and Remainers don't know their arses from their elbows much less be passion and inspiring to the young and to women.

We are fucked.

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BestIsWest · 22/05/2019 17:51

As far as feelings in the water go, I got Brexit and Trump right. I’ve also called our constituency the right way on the last two elections - in 2015 it was a margin of 28. In 2017, the Labour candidate was in our home the night before the election and I told her I had no doubts she’d win. She did.

I have no idea about tomorrow but I’ve said to DH for the last 3 years that Boris will be PM and will revoke.

I’m also good at predicting the sex of babies.

Has May resigned yet?

fedup21 · 22/05/2019 17:52

So she’s not going tonight then?!

ContinuityError · 22/05/2019 17:52

Adam Bienkov @AdamBienkov

New Kantar European elections poll.

Four-point lead for the Brexit Party.

Brexit Party (27.4%)
Labour (23.5%)
Liberal Democrats (14.5%)
Conservatives (12.9%)
Greens (7.7%)
Change UK (5.4%)
Others inc. SNP/PC and UKIP (8.7%)

Fieldwork: 14th – 21st May 2019.

tobee · 22/05/2019 17:53

Ooop! Tom Tugendhat happy to tell the BBC now that he supports Gove.

borntobequiet · 22/05/2019 17:53

TT likely to support Rory Stewart?

borntobequiet · 22/05/2019 17:53

Ha ha wrong again

woman19 · 22/05/2019 17:53

@AdamBienkov

New Kantar European elections poll.

Four-point lead for the Brexit Party.

Brexit Party (27.4%)
Labour (23.5%)
Liberal Democrats (14.5%)
Conservatives (12.9%)
Greens (7.7%)
Change UK (5.4%)
Others inc. SNP/PC and UKIP (8.7%)

Pre milkshake Poll.

tobee · 22/05/2019 17:54

Aren't these polls saying Labour 🌹 are doing much better now? Or am I just not paying enough attention?

LonelyTiredandLow · 22/05/2019 17:55

Amber Rudd needs to tread carefully - Hastings has a high proportion of "Slum landlords" Hmm and her constituents are some of the poorest in the South East. She's not winning hearts and minds here...

RedToothBrush · 22/05/2019 17:55

Stephen Bush @stephenkb
It's slightly surreal that Heidi Allen is offering to quit as Change UK leader for being right about how they should handle the Liberal Democrats.

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RedToothBrush · 22/05/2019 17:57

Jane Merrick @janemerrick23
Off topic slightly but my mind is boggling at Donald Trump holding a state visit with caretaker PM David Lidington
Lidders is a class act, but still, boggles

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RedToothBrush · 22/05/2019 17:58

Ross Kempsell @rosskempsell
Tory HQ expecting at a senior level that 1922 exec will vote to change rules

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RedToothBrush · 22/05/2019 17:59

Paul Johnson @paul__johnson
Latest:
-May barricaded in Downing Street refusing to come out
-Farage reportedly 'trapped' on a bus surrounded by people armed with milkshakes

Strange day

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MaudBaileysGreenTurban · 22/05/2019 18:00

The mental health lecturer on twitter has fairly significant form for pushing the boundaries.

Hopefully his venerable institution and his professional body will have something to say to him...finally.

Motheroffourdragons · 22/05/2019 18:00

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

RedToothBrush · 22/05/2019 18:01

www.thesun.co.uk/news/9132151/nigel-farage-brexit-bus-people-milkshakes/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=sunmaintwitter&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1558543114
Nigel Farage ‘trapped on Brexit bus due to people armed with milkshakes’

It comes days after the party leader was covered in a caramel milkshake while campaigning in Newcastle

He's in Kent....

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LonelyTiredandLow · 22/05/2019 18:01

I am imagining Farage will upstage any place-holding PM (actually if TM is still there he will probably upstage her too), to have a photoshoot with Trump whilst here.

woman19 · 22/05/2019 18:03

"There are a couple of guys standing over there with milkshakes, they were going to throw them over him.

“But the police are there, we’ve spotted them and now Nigel isn’t getting off the bus.”

Three young men reportedly turned up with covered faces, before someone suggested they were carrying milkshakes."

www.thesun.co.uk/news/9132151/nigel-farage-brexit-bus-people-milkshakes/

The Man of the Paypal and the Suspected Milkshakes. Hmm

RedToothBrush · 22/05/2019 18:03

Kate McCann @KateEMcCann
Source says chief whip told 1922 executive that the PM isn’t going anywhere. Said she is campaigning tomorrow and to focus on elections. “They accepted that”. Rule change was not mentioned in that meeting.

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LonelyTiredandLow · 22/05/2019 18:05

Proud of my fellow Kentish dwellers! If he was in Planet Thanet it would probably have been a different kipper of fish.

Just noticed that in one of the milkshake pics there is a Sainsbury's poster above his head, arrow pointing far left with "Did someone say food?" Grin Grin

RedToothBrush · 22/05/2019 18:06

Kate McCann @KateEMcCann
Source says chief whip told 1922 executive that the PM isn’t going anywhere. Said she is campaigning tomorrow and to focus on elections. “They accepted that”. Rule change was not mentioned in that meeting.
So rule change wasn’t mentioned according to source, which doesn’t mean it won’t happen. MPs being held outside meeting room waiting to be let back in to find out what decision, if any, has been made

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tobee · 22/05/2019 18:08

Theresa May is campaigning tomorrow??? I thought they did campaign on Election Day? Or is that not the same for European Elections?

woman19 · 22/05/2019 18:09

I suspect it's another production by the Turquoise Street Theatre Company lonely

tobee · 22/05/2019 18:09

they didn't* campaign I mean! I'm getting too excited to proofread properly

tobee · 22/05/2019 18:11

And again. Blush I meant:-

I thought politicians didn't campaign on election days? Or is that not the same in European elections??