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Brexit

Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise

979 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 22:31

In the beginning there was this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

And it said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

And

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

So what of where we stand and the poison chalice of the Tory Leadership and a deal.

According to a poll of Tory Members, Johnson is by far their runaway favourite to become next leader. And he's given a 61% competence score - higher than any other candidate.

With Raab as their second favourite.

May has successfully managed to make such a mess of how she handled the 2016 Tory Party Conference and everything that subsequently stemmed from that, that the poison chalice of leadership will be passed and sooner than many would have wanted.

However blame for what follows can be laid at her feet. At the Labour Party’s feet for ending talks that were never going anyway. At the EU. And No Deal has been detoxified by May's handling amongst many supporters of Brexit. Johnson and Raab will therefore have no interest in striking a deal with the EU and instead set sail for exit on 31st Oct and will brazen it out.

What is scary is that waiting in the wings is Farage, who without winning a single seat in the HoC has more power than any MP. They are all so afraid of him. Thus we face a very hard push to the right, with the left and centre in disarray and disorganisation.

The Human Rights Act and Devolution settlements will be top of the list to go.

And we will face draconian ways to control the population as the lazy fools will want no accountability to the press or the courts.

How long before appointed or elected judges?

Was Boris outmanoeuvred?

By the look of it, absolutely not. He just had to wait a few years. But his path and power will not be lead by him... But by those who pull his strings.

It looks bleak. Very bleak.

Many may rue the day they didn't vote for May's deal yet...

... And fear of this nightmare vision of the future is the only card May has left in her hand to play. Will anyone realise this?

Probably not, because they will all still think Johnson's leadership bid will be blocked by moderates. The trouble is he's polling well and the cowards are too busy looking over their shoulders at the turquoise arrows.

Pray for a shock result next week which brings fewer Brexit Party seats than are anticipated. The trouble is they have the momentum right now and Remainers don't know their arses from their elbows much less be passion and inspiring to the young and to women.

We are fucked.

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DGRossetti · 22/05/2019 16:46

Sources close to Sajid Javid say he has asked to see the PM to push her to remove the second referendum vote requirement from the bill - he believes it is not what was agreed -

Makes you wonder if he was there at all ?

Or did May pull (what I hope get's known worldwide as ... ) the 80% trick where she claims that's what the cabinet voted for ...

This is all playing pass the parcel with a live grenade though, isn't it ?

RedToothBrush · 22/05/2019 16:51

Jon Craig @joncraig
Very senior MP tells me the word from the Cabinet corridor in the HoC is that the PM will resign tonight, Andrea Leadsom is poised to resign to launch a leadership bid, others may also resign & David Lidington will take over as acting PM. Unconfirmed!

We are going to need another thread tonight....

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tobee · 22/05/2019 16:51

I've just messaged my ds to say Mumsnet now think that he's the Oracle. GrinGrinGrinConfused

DGRossetti · 22/05/2019 16:51

Amber Rudd to lodge complaint over UN's austerity report

Good idea. Presumably this is the same UN that the government uses as a fig leaf for swerving cannabis liberalisation ? So already a track record of unreliability. Although I'm guessing this is going to be a pick'n'mix approach, where everything else from the UN is perfect Hmm

It doesn't augur well for future trade deals, if the UK can't take third party adjudication though ....

lifesnotaspectatorsport · 22/05/2019 16:53

Funnily enough I was just attempting to explain the Brexit mess to my Indian boss today (we are both in a 3rd country) and I said Theresa May is finished, will be gone within days. He's going to be very impressed with me at this rate!! Grin

tobee · 22/05/2019 16:57

I was just messing all my family to say Westminsterenders say predictions are that Theresa will go tonight. But then realised that I needed to add "More so than normally"!! GrinGrinGrin

DGRossetti · 22/05/2019 16:57

Theresa May is finished, will be gone within days.

Chickens hatching springs to mind.

tobee · 22/05/2019 16:57

Messing? Messaging HmmGrin

Cherrypi · 22/05/2019 16:58

The night before an election would look very unprofessional.

DGRossetti · 22/05/2019 16:59

The night before an election would look very unprofessional.

As compared to the past 3 years ?

SusanWalker · 22/05/2019 17:01

The night before an election would look very unprofessional

Perhaps they're hoping more people will vote Tory tomorrow if she goes.

tobee · 22/05/2019 17:03

Just watching Beth Rigby on Sky. I'm wondering if she's getting stick for wearing a blue and yellow dress under her white jacket?

tobee · 22/05/2019 17:09

Flicking between Beth Rigby and Vicky Young. Hooray for women political journalists!

1tisILeClerc · 22/05/2019 17:11

When can we go back to discussing handbags or stylish but sensible shoes?

Icantreachthepretzels · 22/05/2019 17:12

Perhaps they're hoping more people will vote Tory tomorrow if she goes.

I'm guessing it's that, too. The promise of Boris or JRM and the seeming defeat of her W.A (I know - I know ... but they don't and they won't listen) might be enough to swerve a few of their members from voting turquoise arrows.
I'd say that was a sacrifice worth making - sack off TM and so split the BP vote with tory. The fact is it would not actually be good for brexit - but all they care about is the tory party, so they may well do it.

But on the other hand ... you cannot kill a zombie.

tobee · 22/05/2019 17:25

Trying to google who Tom Tugendhat is likely to support. Just interviewed by Jon Craig who labelled him a king maker. TT wouldn't say who it was he would back but there's someone.

Course could just be Job Craig flattering TT ....

icannotremember · 22/05/2019 17:41

He's consistently supported the WA, if that's any indication.

woman19 · 22/05/2019 17:42

Trying to google who Tom Tugendhat is likely to support

@BethRigby
He’s on Team Gove.

DGRossetti · 22/05/2019 17:44

Tom Tugendhat

It's probably just me, but I can't read that name without thinking of the slang term (round our way) having a tug ....

Probably a manifestation of my conscious appraisal that all Tories are wankers.

bellinisurge · 22/05/2019 17:44

High up on a cat tree with her back to humanity, my cat giving no shits.
Does this help?

Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise
RedToothBrush · 22/05/2019 17:47

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Number 10 seem to be planning to tough this out - nothing expected from May tonight, elections tomorrow, then Parliament supposedly on recess for a week, but not sure that's a position that can hold

Kate McCann @KateEMcCann
Chief whip has just arrived at the 1922 executive meeting looking very stony faced

Wow, that’s a bit of a shocker. The chief has just left the 1922 meeting. He went in about 2 minutes ago.

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woman19 · 22/05/2019 17:48

Her going tonite might be bad news for the turquoisie.

RedToothBrush · 22/05/2019 17:49

Paul Brand @PaulBrandITV
Chief Whip currently in the loo with journalists standing outside the door. Britain, we have reached full bonkers.

Chief Whip now meeting 1922 exec

And now he’s left the meeting after 2 mins. Extraordinary.

Remember, Chief Whip sympathises with many MPs - he told PM she couldn’t get WAB through.

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tobee · 22/05/2019 17:50

Now you're just lowering the tone, DG BlushGrin

Robert Peston (and others) saying that his sources say that Theresa is definitely going to give the WA another shot on 7th June.

That's 16 days away! That's just dumbfounding!! Shock

QueenOfThorns · 22/05/2019 17:51

520 jobs going at Arcadia according to Sky Sad