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Brexit

Westminstenders: Lets get on with...

939 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/05/2019 09:48

Admitting the mandate for leaving has expired.

The newspapers today are full of Talk of both Corbyn and May panicking that Brexit is destroying their parties, so after nearly 3 years of party politics they have decided that actually they can agree on something in the next week or so. Not because it's in the national interest but because they don't fancy mutual self assured destruction.

If they do manage to cobble something together then it with be rushed and shite.

If they don't they will be punished at the Euro elections by a Remain / Leave pincer action.

They can spin it all they like from their local election disaster that it was people wanting to get on with Brexit. It certainly does not change the reality that those people who were most likely to vote are fed up with the pair of them. And that there is a strong indication that the most motivated voters are remain leaning. Perhaps its true that leavers stayed home in protest. If they did, what will they do if the Brexit Party stand candidates at a general election? Maybe they will vote, but you can't argue that they view voting itself as an important act. Spoilt ballots were up, but not that up. If the pair do manage a deal, then we have Brexited which might satisfy some. The trouble is the underlying issues are not to do with the European Union. And even if we leave with a deal that does not resolve our future trading relationship. The poison that is Brexit won't end. And the voters will realise that soon enough. Leaving even with a deal will harm the economy, and that's only going to fuel discontent.

It's therefore hard to see where either party go from here. Not when they are effectively split internally. The poison is here to stay.

Spinning it as 'it shows the public want us to get on with Brexit' isn't going to help their cause with voters who still think leaving is a national disaster. Those voters will still think its a national disaster and will be even more pissed at being ignored and dismissed once again.

Where is the incentive to return to voting Labour or Conservative?

The Euro Elections, if they go ahead, will therefore be about one thing and one thing only: turnout. Even if the Brexit Party do relatively well, it will be about how many turnout in comparison to the locals and in comparison to the last EU elections. Whilst they might not admit the reality of things, ultimately all Labour and Conservatives really care about is securing the vote of people who will vote because voting intention doesn't win them seats if people don't turnout.

OP posts:
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LonelyTiredandLow · 08/05/2019 19:46

Oh and I also did the YouGov - I suspect knowing your birth weight has some 'snowflake' tendency or something, much as the death penalty Q was to suss how far right you lean. They are seeing who they are appealing/not to. I think we can answer that for them without the ££ = 0% Grin

SwedishEdith · 08/05/2019 19:54

I've not had a YouGov survey for over a year. It may have something to do with saying I was going to vote Ukip at last election just to see what questions I'd get.

Only had LD leaflets here.

SwedishEdith · 08/05/2019 19:58

This obviously went down well on Twitter. What with Liverpool voting Remain, Klopp being outspokenly anti-Brexit and German and the goal scorers being Belgian and Dutch 😁.

Robert Peston
‏*@Peston*

Crikey. @theresa_may explicitly compares herself to Liverpool FC - and sees its triumph over Barca as a model for how she can still win on Brexit! I am not sure that will warm the cockles of the people of Liverpool

NoWordForFluffy · 08/05/2019 20:08

I've not seen any Euro leaflets yet. Though DH may be binning them while I'm at work!

And I do know my birth weight. But it's a single figure, so easy to remember. I know my length too. Is this unusual?!

icannotremember · 08/05/2019 20:24

If they send me or DH Brexit party leaflets I will hurt myself laughing. I think our very forrin surname will keep us safe from that though.

bellinisurge · 08/05/2019 20:26

Ha ha tbe people of Liverpool who voted in a majority for Remain. What a silly billy she is.

OublietteBravo · 08/05/2019 20:27

No leaflets for the European elections yet. Although it appears the conservatives are trying to raise funds for the Peterborough by election (I don’t live in Peterborough Hmm).

MockerstheFeManist · 08/05/2019 20:35

Following the example of the protesting tree-huggers, Theresa May has superglued her arse to the Treasury Bench and is not moving, possibly until May 29th when she passes Brown and ceases to be the shortest-serving PM of the century. She may even be trying for the pandimensionalshambles that will make her even worse than Cameron.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/05/2019 20:36

littlespaces Our reputation has not just sunk in Europe - it sank around the world from at least 2017

That has meant a reduction in UK "soft power" internationally: the ability to influence other countries & get our polcies / aims through without having to bribe, use miitary force or other coercion

Littlespaces · 08/05/2019 20:53

Depressing.

Littlespaces · 08/05/2019 21:16

@joncstone
I'm told that trade wonks in Washington DC have taken to calling the post-Brexit trade deal Donald Trump offered Theresa May "the United States–United Kingdom Agreement"... or "USUKA" for short, pronounced "You sucker"

prettybird · 08/05/2019 21:23

Sm watching Brexit: Behind Closed Doors (Part 1) on BBC4.

This is the sort of detailed work that the UK should also have done before (and after) triggering A50 Sad And also explains why the E27 have stayed so focused in what they want. Because they've discussed and agreed what they want to achieve. And have worked across the party groupings.

It's not rocket science. But it is boring and detailed hard graft. Confused

And whatever the various Brexit supporting parties (and I include the Tories, Labour, the purple party and the turquoise party) believe or say, that work still needs to be done. Angry

1tisILeClerc · 08/05/2019 21:37

You mean those 'Euro' types have a plan, how unsporting of them!

prettybird · 08/05/2019 21:39

Sm = I'm Blush

BigChocFrenzy · 08/05/2019 21:41

@red - have you considered this issue ?

Also any Westmininstender knowledgeable about party finances who can comment ?

I think I just found an unfortunate financial advantage for Farage's campaign:

Farage's party - and CHuK - may have a big spending advantage over all other parties because of not standing in the local elecions

- EP spending limits are reduced by local election spends.

Electoral Commission: EP Campaign Spending

https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/data/assets/pdff_file/0020/252137/European-Parliament-Political-Parties-GB-2019.pdf.pdf

Campaign spending is what your party spends on activities to promote the party or criticise other parties during a particular period in the run-up to the election.

This period is called the ‘regulated period’. Where we use the term ‘regulated period’ we mean the time when the spending limits and rules apply.

For the European Parliamentary elections in 2019, it began on 23 January 2019 and ends on 23 May 2019.
....
Local government elections are also taking place in May in some parts of England.

These elections are being held during the regulated period for the European Parliamentary elections.

This means that all party spending on local government elections during the regulated period for the European Parliamentary elections will be counted against the spending limit for the European Parliamentary elections

prettybird · 08/05/2019 21:46

Just as well the SNP and the Scottish Greens aren't affected then as we didn't have any local elections up here Grin

BigChocFrenzy · 08/05/2019 21:51

Ever since the ref, reason after reason to envy / admire Scotland !

Peregrina · 08/05/2019 22:01

It's a bit annoying about the spending, but to put a more positive light on it- we have been getting out literature for 4 months now, so have raised our profile. Success also seems to be breeding success and new people are getting involved.

prettybird · 08/05/2019 22:09

I really really really recommend that Storyville programme on BBC4 about Brexit: Behind Closed Doors. So far they've only got up to December 2017 and the bombshell when May at the last minute rejected the Citizens Agreement and what they thought that they'd agreed to date. They showed Guy Verhostadt quoting Ollie Robbins saying he'd be wanting to stay in Belgium as he wouldn't want to go back to the UK Grin

Part 2 is tomorrow.

Peregrina · 08/05/2019 22:11

Will this programme make us want to throw things at the TV? If so, I will give it a miss.

prettybird · 08/05/2019 22:18

No - it will make you laugh Smile. It's from the Europeans perspective - mostly Guy Verhofstadt but you also hear his advisers, speech writers, Barnier, Brok et al.

Very little that we would disagree with Grin

RedToothBrush · 09/05/2019 00:05

BCF I don't know a lot about that. I know that generally speaking it's down to local associations to leaflet in the run up to elections and they fund this out of local association funds. So if a local party has fewer members who are donating you have a particular problem. This is quite separate to the spending limits, but if you have two elections close together this might be more prohibitive than spending limits themselves. Especially with depleted reserves from a snap election in 2017 and subsequent low moral.

In recent years, the Conservatives have taken a more centralised approach to leaflet production and distribution, in part because of a lack of man power but I suspect local associations are expected to stump up for their production still.

We already know that the Conservatives have an issue in that area, Labour's revenue is heavily in the red and the LDs are always skint.

The Euro elections are more difficult because they are not area based in the same way, so where the responsibility lies is less clear cut. All the messing about with we are having elections / we are not having elections means fundraising won't have been done a few months back in perhaps the way it should be and the parties are not as organised as they should as they've been busy with the locals. I can imagine there's a funding argument going on in some places.

From what I know of timetabling deadlines for the Royal mail party mailshots they are pretty damn early. My suspicion is the Conservative Party are going to be pushing their luck to get ANYTHING printed and distributed before the postal ballots arrive which will be a disaster for them. I believe there are two options for the royal mail mailshot - a named mailshot with your address from the electoral role or just a general one delivered to all households in a postcode without a name. The logistics of the first are harder, more time consuming and expensive than the latter. However a named correspondence is really thought to work better with voters considering voting for that party so are preferred where possible.

We know the Brexit Party has been on the ball with that. I don't think this is a luxury the Conservatives will have even if they have the money. The LDs might well struggle because the coffers are dry because they've just had a big push on the locals (a lot of LD associations won't be anywhere near the spending limit even if they have had locals, because that's beyond their means anyway! They do everything on a shoe string most if the time anyway). Labour I don't know quite where they might sit with that.

As it goes I'm yet to receive anything. My area is unlikely to be a priority for the Brexit Party (if we get something we will be last on the list). However we also didn't have locals here so in theory spending limits should be less of an issue. Yet nothing here.

My point being that I don't think it's the spending limit that's the problematic big and gives the Brexit Party the edge in terms of promotion. It's the money local associations have in the piggies bank right now and many areas are facing something of a cash flow issue which will potentially be leading to arguments with central offices over who is going to pay for a non constituency / Borough election. Plus the logistics of planning and being caught short with Brexit Hokey-Cokey and deadline extensions.

The LDs were fairly on the ball with candidates. The Brexit Party were very much on the ball. Labour were somewhat slower and I think the Conservatives just about scrapped the deadline. And that's far more indicative of how the parties are handling the elections.

The centralised nature of the Brexit Party also helps them enormously.

I would not be surprised at a repeat of the 2017 elections where the Tories were shockingly late with candidates, caught off guard with planning and couldn't find a printer who could do it quick enough as there wasn't enough paper in the country to met the deadlines they needed to hit. Only worst. An absolute car crash of planning.

Labour has had their big row over the EU ref which I bet delayed things for them too.

Ultimately the LDs manage to campaign nationally on a budget, only spending up to their limits on target seats. You could target your mailshots to postcodes which are most likely to be targets and spend little in areas which aren't going to be good targets and this would help with spending limits AND lack of funds.

This also favours the Brexit Party and the LDs / Change because you'd target either heavy remain areas or heavy leave areas first. The Tories and Labour in trying to court both are unable to do that.

Everything points to a major advantage to the Brexit Party in terms of campaigning and ability to campaign. The electoral commission spending limit isn't the factor that I'd put near the top of the list for problems for that reason.

Hope that makes sense.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 09/05/2019 00:14

Thanks, red

BigChocFrenzy · 09/05/2019 00:22

What is worrying: History shows us that lies & smears can win when a country is in crisis .....

Historian Thomas Childers:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/five-myths/five-myths-about-nazis/2017/10/20/f4463dea-b2b5-11e7-9e58-e6288544af98story.html?utmm_term=.783eb794f302

Hitler .... attracted a small but intensely loyal core of supporters during the party's early years - 3 to 6 percent of the electorate during its first obscure decade.

Even in regional elections throughout the 1920s, the Nazis' share of the electorate never reached 10 percent.

The truth is that Hitler rose on the strength of his skill as a political strategist, more than anything else.

The Nazi Party's propaganda staff became masters of negative campaigning, launching vicious assaults on the establishment parties and the "system" they supported.

They were convinced that details didn't matter;
indeed, Nazi claims were often outright lies.

The Nazis also promised everything to everybody, pledging higher sale prices for farmers and lower food prices for workers in the cities.

The contradictions abounded, and opposing parties never tired of pointing them out.

Such criticism did not faze the Nazis in the least.
They either ignored it or railed that this sort of whining was what was wrong with German politics.

Hitler understood that there are times when desperate, angry people want two and two to be five, and he swore that the Nazis would make it so

After the onset of the Great Depression, the party saw its vote totals jump dramatically in 1930, then rocket to 38 percent in July 1932

BigChocFrenzy · 09/05/2019 00:29

Abuse of MPs hitting unprecedented levels, says Met police chief

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/may/08/abuse-of-mps-hitting-unprecedented-levels-says-met-police-chief

Fallout from Brexit vote sees crimes against politicians soar, Cressida Dick tells committee