Westminstenders: Why the Irish Border isn't a Remain/EU Plot

[RedToothBrush]

I hope the events of this week give the ERG the kick up the backside over this that they need.

I doubt it will, but I live in hope. The alternative is too horrid to contemplate.

I'll leave this here instead as a reminder of what choice Brexit was always going to come down to.

Happy Easter everyone.

Beth Rigby @BethRigby
The 1922 executive are meeting in a ‘secret location’ and that the meeting, which started at 7pm, could be going on for a bit longer yet. Also told that tenor of conversation pointing to no definitive conclusion tonight. Unsurprising given the exec split.

Think meeting now concluded but told no conclusion was sought this evening as to how to proceed and this was a ‘preliminary discussion’ > doesn’t make sense to try to remove PM just ahead of local elections on May 2. After that, much less clear

Where next for the ‘22 discussion on May’s future? Picking up talks again on rule changes tomorrow afternoon ahead of the weekly meeting of parliamentary party. The prospect of being trounced in a national poll by that old nemesis Farage is concentrating minds...

Re: The Conservative Party. The biggest mistake that moderate Tory voters and observers are making is to assume that the Current Tory Party is the same party that it was in 2015. And to assume that it will still be the same as it is now in 2020.

'One Nation Tories' are a thing of the past. The direction of travel is towards the hard right. There is no force to counter this effect. The Culture War is polarising and making it a more pronounced hard right party.

The gap in the centre is getting wider not smaller.

Isn't it Poland that has interfered with it's judiciary?

we'd also have to leave the ECHR too.

What makes you think we won't?

Honest question.

Hungary.

Judical independence in Hungary is fucked.

I am several days behind
BUT
I just flew home from Sardinia
where are the Brits
they noticed the drop in bookings
but
and this is UTTERLY KEY
they are chilled that other nationalities will cover all of the slack
we have been warned

The Brexit party is likely to absorb UKIP voters and grow
It may also gain a lot of voter support if it ends up #1 or a good #2 in the EP elections

Much depends on what happens to the Tory vote after the EP elections
Especially if the govt falls and there is a GE

Will the rightwing vote be split, letting in a Labour govt with a working majority ?
As happened in the 1980s, with MrsT getting a large majority when the centre & left got well over 50%, but the vote split / geographical distribution was bad for them

Will BREX get in the middle / upper 20s, so a substantial wedge of MPs,
most dangerously maybe with a hung Parliament ?

In a hung Parliament, with BREX holding the balance of power, as the DUP did,
then a new Tory leader would make major concessions to get a Confidence & Supply, or even form a coalition with them.

Thanks RTB, I just couldn't remember although saying this I am sure Poland has some issues.

RTB - Yes we might leave the ECHR, however, all what you are suggesting could happen will make the UK a pariah among western countries.. and a million miles away from Global Britain.

You cannot compare new democracies such as Hungary or Poland with the UK... however, i do agree we cannot be complacent and its why i haven't voted Tory since i was 18, they are a vile party and responsible for so much that is wrong in our country.

There hasn't been One Nation Conservatism since Heath.

I don't have this faith that it would take several Parliaments

Much of our Constitution is blurred, with many safeguards not being irreversible
and depends on a govt - when it has a large majority - feeling morally constrained not to use their full executive powers.

Blair's bloody Civil Contingencies Act 2004 horrified me at the time, but hardly anyone would listen.
He wanted full power as always and was wilfully blind to the possibility that the far right / left could come to power and use it

Parliament is supreme and a large hard right majority, especially in a BREX coalition, could flood the HoL with new peers and dismantle the judiciary in one, if sufficiently determined

MrsT wanted economic & social change, so concentrated on that; the transformations she made in the 1980s were massive and have become permanent

However, removing & replacing judges, changing the court system are defined actions, hence much quicker than radical economic change.

All that has stopped previous large majorities from going

I was surprised how quickly Blair could bring in radical constitutional changes like a Supreme court
and a Scottish Parliament, a Welsh Assembly (NI is a separate case, with special circs)

The hard right don't give a damn about being a global pariah

• and of course we wouldn't be a pariah to the US, China, Saudi Arabia, Brunei ....

The hard right dream of being basically a US colony / 51st state is that then the UK would be free of liberal constraints

What would most effectively stop a large hard right majority from going full-blown authoritarian is a Democratic POTUS in 2020

Trump would just egg them on and there seems little chance of the old pragmatic GOP returning in the near future.

The Justice System is at breaking point and in need of some big changes just to keep going and being effective and efficient in its present form.

That actually leaves it vulnerable to some bright spark saying 'oh its not fit for purpose, we need to wholesale reform to sort the problem out' rather than injecting the cash it needs to merely function on a basic level.

Its stuff like having criminal duty solicitors in all parts of the UK. Which currently is a timebomb crisis as there is no money in it, and all those who are doing it are getting older.

www.lawsociety.org.uk/policy-campaigns/campaigns/criminal-lawyers/
Criminal duty solicitors: a looming crisis

What would most effectively stop a large hard right majority from going full-blown authoritarian is a Democratic POTUS in 2020

The Democrats are currently unelectable in some Red States. Thats before vote rigging. Even with Trump.

Too much naval gazing and lack of awareness going there as well.

PMK. Hope everyone had a nice Easter Break and are ready for the foray to continue. I've tried to catch up but as you all know I've been distracted and am thoroughly exhausted. In other words I couldn't be hossed! ( not really!)
Dgd continues to progress very slowly and more blood tests specialist appointments and bone marrow sample Thursday. She popped into school with me this morning as they had to be informed. She stayed for 2 hours before she was exhausted. But mostly free lessons today so not anything much missed. Hoping platelets get a move on so she has a bit of energy. Tbh we are concentrating on health at mo. Hopefully join in more in a few days. All the best to one and all.

Good to hear DGD is a bit better sos - I hope she continues to improve! Hope all goes well with the tests on Thurs

Good news about DGD Sos. Hope she continues to feel better this week.

Now, I know I should be used to TV journalists spouting lies and idiocy re Brexit by now but this - dear god - Richard Madeley takes the entire fekkin’ biscuit tin.

twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1120360797467705344?s=21

What would most effectively stop a large hard right majority from going full-blown authoritarian is a Democratic POTUS in 2020

I think that might tip some of the hard right into open insurrection, egged on by Steve Bannon and his unsavoury friends and associates.

www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-48027190

The next Democratic president had better carry a big stick.

Sos
Fingers crossed she will keep on improving.

Sos thinking of you and dgd.

I sense fear; Sky on Indyref 2

War rhetoric continues with Trump's visit to coincide with d-day and calls for Trump to be able to make a public address which thankfully Bercow saved us from last time...propaganda machine has a stick in it for now on that front at least!

*address to Parliament, not public!

I’m OK with CUK now having read a couple of articles and listened to a couple of interviews re (not) collaborating with other parties in EP elections. Not so keen on the focus being on Rachel Johnson but the mainstream media seem obsessed with everything Johnson, they appear to be this country’s political version of the Kardashians. I suspect their candidates are streets ahead politically and personally than those for most other parties (judging by the difficulty eg the LDs have finding candidates for local elections - I was asked numerous times but wasn’t in a position to commit) hence will be generally vilified as liberal elite whatever their intellectual or public service background, just for being nice, moderate, competent people who have finally decided to get involved in politics.

The Democrats are currently unelectable in some Red States. Thats before vote rigging. Even with Trump.

That's been the case forever though. They don't have to win red states, they have to win purple ones (and some red ones are turning purple due to demographics).

There was an interesting post on twitter yesterday by Michael McDonald who is an academic specialising in American elections. Over time, the non-Hispanic white vote share is falling (as you'd expect), but In the midterms, it usually spiked up because of the impact of low turnout. That didn't happen in the last midterms. He thinks turnout could be heading for record levels despite attempts to deny the vote to minorities.

I'm not yet optimistic but I think that's encouraging. And there are some good candidates on the Dem side: I was a Warren sceptic but actually she's very good. And I am a big fan of Kamala Harris. Even some of the men look like decent candidates.

To the person who said about school not being used in EU elections. It may be that 2 days closed is too much for school? When is SATS testing?

Really they should be using alternatives to schools anyway where possible.

Ann Widdecombe has now joined the Brexit Party.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6953187/Tory-grandee-Widdecombe-defects-Farages-Brexit-Party.html

The EU elections in the South West should prove interesting, if nothing else.

Hmmmm what do we think of Ann Widdecombe. She's an authoritarian - great fan of the death penalty.

Also likes publicity:

Panto
Celebrity Big brother
Strictly

Really dignified.

She also likes leaving institutions quitting the C of E for the Catholic Church (as she doesn't support women's ordination!).